Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 280839
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
339 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Chances for showers and storms return to the forecast in the short
term. Subtle leading shortwave will approach from the southwest and
parts of northwest Iowa may become uncapped this afternoon. Shear
profiles in this region are linear so not expecting organized
convection, but a few storms could have marginally severe wind gusts
given the inverted V look in forecast soundings. Any activity in
northwest Iowa will diminish by sunset with the loss of solar
heating.

Monday night a stronger shortwave rotates around the upper low
and will approach from the southwest. Best forcing will arrive
across the region overnight, so any convection that approaches
looks to be elevated. While shear profiles will be more favorable
for organized convection, a subtle warm layer around 700mb may put
a damper on convective potential. Nevertheless, with the
nocturnal surface inversion progged to be shallow, will need to
keep an eye on any overnight convection, especially if it lingers
through sunrise Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

The beginning periods of the extended continue to feature chances
for showers and storms as the main upper wave finally exits the
Rockies and heads across the upper Midwest. However, the timing of
the main wave, which looks to approach our western zones in the late
afternoon, suggests Tuesday afternoon and evening could have the
highest severe potential of the next two days. Potential is the
operative word, as destabilization during the day would be required
to realize it. With preceding showers and thunderstorms across the
surrounding region possible, where and even if this potential can be
realized is uncertain.

The rest of the week will feature a more progressive pattern as
another wave will approach during the Friday/Saturday time frame
with the usual chances for showers and storms. In the interim, look
for continued warm to hot conditions Wednesday through Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ferguson
LONG TERM...Ferguson
AVIATION...JM



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