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000
FXUS65 KLKN 251021
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
321 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Period of active weather, including breezy to gusty
winds, continues with accumulating rain, mountain snow, and
thunderstorms in the forecast thru tomorrow. Drier weather present beginning
Saturday and into early next week though weather remains
unsettled with continued breezes and low probabilities for
precipitation across portions of northern Nevada.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday Night

Today thru Friday will see an upper low continue to move east
from SoCal and into the four corners region. Concurrently, another
upper wave moves into the forecast area along with an attendant
cold front from the northwest late in the day Thursday. Valley
rain showers and mountain snow, along with thunderstorms will be
present across the forecast area today and tomorrow. Snow levels
generally reside around 8500 feet today, lowering overnight, and
residing around 7500 feet Friday as cooler air moves in post
frontal. Snow falling at some of the higher pass routes early
Friday morning may cause slush ups, especially under a heavier
snow shower. That said, the bigger concerns will be for lightning,
localized gusty winds, and small hail associated with
thunderstorms. Some concern also for sharp rises in faster
responding streams and creeks under prolonged or heavier rain
showers, especially with flowages running high thanks to seasonal
snow melt. Showers and thunderstorms expected to persist tonight,
though overall thunderstorm activity will decrease. Rain and
mountain snow remain in place Friday with increased coverage of
thunderstorms again during the day. Activity dissipates and exits
to the east Friday night. Total rain accumulations across the
valleys between both days looks to be between 0.25" and 0.50".
Some locales are expected to receive around 0.75" while others,
such as N. Nye County, likely remain less than 0.25". Afternoon
breezes will also be present across the forecast area both days
with gusts around 25 mph. Daytime high temperatures today reside
in the mid 50s to mid 60s with overnight lows in the 30s. Daytime
highs Friday will be much cooler with mid 40s to mid 50s expected
and overnight lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday

Lingering showers expected mainly across northern Nevada as a
trough of low pressure slowly moves eastward. By Monday, a weak
ridge of high pressure moves overhead, allowing warm and dry
conditions for the entire CWA. Breezy to locally windy conditions
are possible for northern and central NV with gusts to 15-20 mph
over the ridge lines and higher terrain.

Afternoon high temperatures will start out in the upper 50s and
lower 60s Saturday to lower 70s by Wednesday. Overnight lows will
mostly be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Indications of an active
weather pattern are present in ensemble guidance as a storm system
moves into the western U.S. starting Friday. However, there is
quite a large spread between members indicating high uncertainty
in timing of potential impactful weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Look for VFR conditions through the 24 hour forecast
period, though intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in
the heaviest showers. VCTS possible across all terminals except
KWMC and KTPH. Strong gusty outflow winds from any thunderstorm
with gusts to 35KT. Outside of convection, winds will be breezy
with gusts to 25KT.

&&

HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across many streams, creeks,
and rivers across northern and central Nevada due to snow melt.
Active weather including valley and mid-elevation rain showers are
expected thru at least Friday. Wetting rains are expected and
awareness should be exercised for sharp rises in faster responding
streams and creeks under prolonged or heavier rain showers,
especially with flows running high due to seasonal snow melt.
Cooler temperatures are also expected the next few days, including
freezing temperatures at night, which will likely slow high
elevation snow melt.

The Bruneau River is currently in action stage and will likely
rise further in the coming days.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is currently in action
stage and is expected to continue to reside in action stage for
the next several days.

The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is currently in action stage and
expected to gradually rise in the coming days. The river is forecast
to reach minor flood stage by this weekend.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City is currently in minor flood
stage. The river is forecast to remain in minor flood stage over
the next several days.

Wildhorse Dam is currently in action stage and is expected to
continue to reside in action stage for the next several days.

The Humboldt River at Comus is currently in action stage and is
expected to continue to reside in action stage for the next
several days.

Mary`s River near Deeth continues to steadily rise and may reach
Acton stage sometime Friday.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

92/90/99