518
FXUS62 KMFL 160628
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
228 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue
   through Thursday.

 - Dangerous heat moves in Friday through the weekend.

 - Lower rain chances over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

In the upper-levels, the core of an upper ridge is centered over the
Southeast, with lows in the western Gulf and SW Atlantic. In the
lower-levels, a convective cluster associated with an area of low
pressure is moving through the northeast Gulf just south of the FL
Panhandle. The result of this is a breakdown of the mid-level ridge
between the upper ridge and surface low. The general background flow
and movement of the larger synoptic features will keep this low and
associated convection moving west along the northern Gulf coast.

Locally, there look to be several different mechanisms for forcing
convection through the early morning and afternoon hours today.
Under the broad diffluent flow aloft, there`ll also be areas of low
level convergence where flow around the broad low moving through the
northern Gulf meet the background S/SE flow on the leading edge of
the building ridge. And, as the western periphery of the ridge nears
the east coast of FL, coastal convergence will also be on the rise.
This type of regime generally brings a high probability of rain
across a large portion of the south Florida, but low predictability
as far as timing and exact placement is concerned. Generally
speaking, the east coast may wrap up their highest chances of precip
by late afternoon, but lasting into the evening across the western
half of South Florida.

On Thursday we pretty much lose any forcing from the low moving
through the Gulf. The core of the western Atlantic upper low will
still be just offshore of FL and will still have us in an area of
deep moisture, with diffluence aloft, and coastal convergence along
the east coast. Expect the convection pattern to look a lot like a
typical easterly flow seabreeze day, starting early along the east
coast and bringing more robust convection later in the day across
the interior and west coast. Overall, coverage of storms should be a
bit less than today (Wednesday).

The progressive nature of storms each afternoon should preclude any
widespread flooding concerns. The stronger storms could drop an inch
of rain pretty easily in any given spot, with a reasonable worst
case around 2-3" in a short period of time. But those amounts (if
they happen) would be fairly isolated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

The end of the week and into the weekend will feature a period of
drier weather as the upper low moves overhead and results in a very
strong mid-level ridge developing underneath. In fact, the NAEFS and
ECMWF ensembles put the strength of the ridge at the top end of
climatology for this time of year. The associated subsidence and
continued influx of low-level moisture will bring a combination of
warmer than usual actual temperatures as well as potentially
dangerous heat indices. Interior and western areas will see the
warmest temperatures with highs in the upper 90s and heat indices
potentially exceeding 108 degF. Shaving a couple degrees off along
the east coast doesn`t provide much relief there either. So while,
it may be tempting to get outside this weekend with a break in the
rain, take necessary precautions to avoid heat related illness.

To start next week, the strong upper ridge moves west into the Gulf
and a return of deep level moisture is expected. Flow with a
southerly component should mean a return to at least seasonable rain
chances once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR will prevail away from showers and storms. Rain is expected to
impact our terminals today, but the predictability as it relates to
timing is low. The main threat window looks to be mid-morning
through mid-afternoon across the east coast, and early afternoon
into the evening at APF. Occasional gusts between 15-20kts will be
possible today, with winds generally out of the SE.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Cautionary level winds will be possible from time to time the next
few days as the western periphery of the subtropical ridge moves
westward through the western Atlantic and into the Gulf. Then, winds
will subside below headline levels once again. Showers and storms
remain likely until the deep layer ridging takes hold late this week
into the weekend, resulting in a period of drier conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  80  89  81 /  70  40  70  10
West Kendall     89  77  90  78 /  70  40  70  10
Opa-Locka        91  80  91  81 /  70  40  70  10
Homestead        88  80  90  80 /  70  50  60  10
Fort Lauderdale  89  80  89  81 /  70  50  70  10
N Ft Lauderdale  90  80  90  81 /  70  40  70  10
Pembroke Pines   92  82  93  82 /  70  40  70  10
West Palm Beach  90  80  90  79 /  70  40  60  10
Boca Raton       91  80  91  80 /  60  40  60  10
Naples           91  77  92  77 /  80  40  80  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM....Harrigan
AVIATION...Harrigan