Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 252003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
303 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The short term concern remains timing of the cold front and
increasing northwest winds and lower RH in the wake of the front.

Fire weather concerns remain over west central MN into Thursday
afternoon as drier air works into the region behind the cold
front. We currently have upper 20s for lower RH across much of
that area for now. We did mention the increased fire danger over
the west for Thursday afternoon in the fire weather forecast.

Temperatures we slow to warm under the steep subsidence inversion
this afternoon. We may see readings mix to the lower 60s over
mainly the east Thursday afternoon as the front exits the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The longer term concerns remain fire weather potential Friday
afternoon across western Minnesota. Another frontal passage Friday
morning will bring in increasing northwest winds and lower
dewpoints to that region of the state once again. We will nee to
monitor model trends concerning dewpoints/RH. Showers will be
possible ahead of the frontal boundary/weak surface low. Moisture
will be limited but lower end PoPs look reasonable at this time.

Following this system we will see cooler temperatures through
Friday. Warmer air should be on the rebound into Sunday as the
upper flow pattern turns more southwest drawing in warmer/moist
more air from the south. We should see more widespread highs in
the 70s Sunday and continuing into early next week. Thunder threat
increase as well, as short waves work northeast in that flow
pattern into southern MN. At the present time, those chances look
best Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday with the passage of a cold


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

VFR trends through period. Some lowering cigs with incoming cold
front later tonight into Thursday. Should be any lower than
35-4500ft though. Rain chance is small but did include some VCSH
over northern MN portion of the area. Expect surface winds to
become s-sw into tonight and gusty nw with fropa.

KMSP...Problematic light winds early should become sw-s into
tonight and fropa expected by 16z or so. Will continue VFR trend
and mention VCSH for possible VIRGA sprinkles around before noon
or so. Winds will become nw and gusty into the afternoon.

Thursday night...VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 kt becoming west 5
kt or less.
Friday...VFR. West wind 5 to 10 kt becoming northwest
10 to 15 kt.
Friday night...VFR. North wind 5 to 10 kt.
Saturday...VFR. North wind 5 to 10 kt.
Saturday night...VFR. Variable wind 5 kt or less.
Sunday...VFR. Southeast wind 10 to 20 kt.




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