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000
FXUS63 KMPX 232357
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
657 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another frost/freeze overnight with temperatures falling back
  near or below freezing outside the metro.

- Our next system arrives by Friday, with a more widespread rain
  looking likely. The system track still has yet to be resolved,
  thus thunderstorm chances are still possible but currently
  unknown in spread and strength.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Scattered showers have developed early over southeastern MN and west-
central WI early this afternoon along a mid-level pressure trough.
The non-zero CAPE and rather cool thermal profiles appear to be
allowing a good portion of these showers to produce pea-sized hail
(evidenced by the few reports we have received from local spotters).
Precip will continue pushing southeast but another round of
scattered showers is currently developing over eastern MN/northwest
WI ahead of a cold front. This activity will move south (mostly
through the same area as the first round), producing another wetting
rain, possibly more pea-size hail, and perhaps a few lightning
strikes. Showers will exit to our southeast this evening and
dissipate as CAPE decreases. Skies will also largely clear out by
Wednesday morning and, combined with the cold frontal passage and
decreasing winds, temperatures will be chilly by sunrise tomorrow.
This should be especially true for our WI counties where lows in the
mid to upper 20s are expected. Meanwhile, lows in the low to mid 30s
look more likely for our MN counties. Have issued a Freeze Warning
for most of our west-central WI counties and a Frost Advisory for
our central, eastern, and southern MN counties tonight.

Wednesday should be pleasant with mostly sunny skies and light
winds. It would be nice if highs were a bit warmer than the forecast
mid 50s to lower 60s, though. Some elevated fire weather concerns
exist as relative humidities drop into the mid 20s to low 30s
percent range during the afternoon. But the light winds should
mitigate some of the fire weather threat. Lows in the 30s will
remain over WI Wednesday night before strong thermal ridging enters
into the Northern Plains Thursday. Southerly flow east of the
Rockies occurs in response to building troughing over the western
CONUS. Thursday will be warmer with highs in the low 60s in WI and
warming to near 70 in western MN. Cloud cover and winds will be
increasing throughout Thursday as our next system approaches from
the Southern Plains. Most ensemble guidance shows multiple
shortwaves ejecting into the central CONUS, setting up a "rain-
train" Friday through the weekend. The first synoptic cyclone looks
arrive at the end of the work week, giving us a high chance of
showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Some strong
thunderstorms may be possible in southern MN depending on how far
north the surface low tracks. Then, another system bringing more
rain looks likely for a large portion of our southern and eastern
CWA Saturday night through Sunday night. Currently, the grand
ensemble has a 40-60% chance of most of the CWA receiving at least
1.5" of QPF through Sunday night. To say the least, this coming
weekend doesn`t look very nice for outdoor activities. But, it will
keep up the beneficial rainfall we`ve been lacking the last few
years. Also, while highs will stay relatively cool through the
weekend with the cloud cover and precip, we are also strongly
favored to trend to more summer-like temperatures the latter half of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Scattered shower coverage has decreased significantly in the
last hour or so, such that the entire 00z TAF suite prevails
with dry weather. Diurnal VFR Cu will clear out soon for most
of the terminals, with the chance that VFR/MVFR ceilings remain
in place a little longer into the evening at RNH and EAU.
Northerly gusts will quickly diminish early this evening,
followed by a gentle shift around out of the southeast by
Wednesday morning. Light south/southeasterly winds prevail
tomorrow, generally below 10kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Chance MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind SE 10-15kts increasing
to 15-20G30kts.
FRI...MVFR/-RA, chance IFR/TS. Wind SE 20-25G35-40kts.
SAT...MVFR/-RA, chance TFR/TS. Wind SW 15-20G25-30kts becoming
NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for Anoka-Blue
     Earth-Carver-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-
     Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Ramsey-Renville-
     Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Wright.
WI...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for Chippewa-
     Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...Strus