568
FXUS63 KPAH 171127
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
527 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Warning remains in effect until noon today for the
  Kentucky Purchase region due to ongoing flooding issues from
  the recent heavy rainfall, with extensive river flooding
  continuing this week.

- Confidence has increased for a major winter storm Tuesday
  morning into Wednesday morning. A Winter Storm Warning has
  been issued for Southeast Missouri for 4 to 7 inches of snow,
  while the rest of the Quad State has a Winter Storm Watch for
  3 to 5 inches of snow.

- Dangerous cold temperatures will cause wind chill values to
  fall below zero degrees during the latter half of this week
  with the lowest wind chill values early Thursday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 528 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

Low clouds are very slowly moving across the Kentucky Pennyrile
this morning, keeping temperatures comparatively warmer in the
mid-20s. Elsewhere, temperatures have fallen to the upper teens
to lower 20s under clear skies. A few sites have had winds
become calm, though many locations have northerly to
northwesterly winds of 6 to 10 kts. Extensive road closures
remain due to the flooding from Saturday`s heavy rains across
Kentucky and nearby areas. At this point, flooding issues are
primarily focused around rivers and streams which will work
their way through during the week ahead. Longer duration
flooding is forecast along major rivers like the Ohio and Green.

Dry conditions are forecast today with high clouds moving
through the region under zonal upper-level flow. Continued flow
of Canadian air with high pressure entrenched in Saskatchewan
will keep temperatures below normal with highs in the mid-20s
up north to around freezing in the south. A narrow west-east
corridor of light snow is likely tonight into early Tuesday in
the northern half of the Quad State. Accumulations from this
are generally going to be around an inch or less. Cold surface
temperatures make slick spots on roads possible.

The broader storm system plunges well to the south,
strengthening near the Mississippi Delta, though vertical
ascent extends north to the forecast area. The system has its
environment better aligned in Southwest Missouri, with
increasing separation Tuesday night into Wednesday. As a result,
while moisture spreads across the Quad State, precipitation
amounts and snowfall totals decrease from west to east across
Missouri and beyond. Models are increasingly in agreement with
this decline in snowfall totals with eastward extent, which has
calmed down some of the more exciting/dreadful, depending on
ones` opinion of a snowstorm, models. QPF has shifted lower this
forecast cycle for the first time in days, and there has been a
very slight reduction in forecast snow as a result, 3 to 8
inches of snow remains forecast with the higher amounts in
Southeast Missouri which has been switched to a Winter Storm
Warning. Snow character will be on the lighter, fluffier side,
ranging from around 12:1 in the south to 16:1 in the north, with
higher ratios in banding. Heavier snow begins moving in during
the afternoon to evening hours, continuing through the night.
Snow tapers off by morning, though flurries to light snow
producing a few tenths more can linger Wednesday.

The large Saskatchewan high pressure drifts into the Upper
Plains midweek and Arctic air into the region while an upper-low
reduces 500 mb heights in the area. Snowpack will also reduce
radiational heating, with all this adding up to very cold mid to
late week conditions. Highs drop to the lower half of the 20s
Wednesday, and stay below 20 on Thursday. Lows Wednesday night
and Thursday night are forecast to be in the lower half of the
single digits for most of the forecast area. An isolated
negative value is possible. Winds don`t drop off entirely
either, yielding winds chills of -5 to 5 early Wednesday, and
around -15 to -5 early Thursday. The good news is that the high
pressure will keep conditions dry after a very active period.
As the upper trough moves eastward at the end of the week, high
pressure remains over the Quad State keeping conditions dry for
the weekend, but allowing for moderation of temperatures over
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 528 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025

Lingering low clouds are slowly exiting the Kentucky Pennyrile
as high clouds move into the Quad State from the west. Winds
remain around 5-7 kts during the day, slowly shifting to
northerly (in the north) to northeasterly (in the south). Cigs
lower towards low-end VFR at the end of the TAF period with the
possibility of snow showers overnight in the north.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     morning for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 AM CST Wednesday
     for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     morning for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL