741
FXUS63 KPAH 131741
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1241 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions will fuel scattered daily
  showers and thunderstorms for the next week.

- The strongest storms may pose an isolated to scattered threat
  of damaging winds. Heavy rainfall will accompany all storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Numerous showers and thunderstorms have already developed over
southeast Missouri and northward into west central Illinois. The
development will spread gradually eastward across the Quad State
through the afternoon. There is the possibility of scattered
storms lingering through the evening. The downdraft potential is
not as great as it was yesterday, but there could still be some
isolated damaging winds with the strongest storms this
afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Deep layer flow remains seasonably weak this morning. A very
modest shortwave is pushing through the northern Plains and will
interact with a residual weak upper low over the central Plains
and shift eastward through the day today. This will give us a
little more jet-level ascent than what we had on Saturday.
Thermodynamic parameters remain about the same with peak heating
expected to yield 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE with convection
firing up in the late morning and afternoon. Shear remains
extremely weak so storm organization will be minimal.
Thermodynamics and moisture profiles should support isolated
downbursts/damaging wind where the tornado/hail risk appears
minimal. Rainfall rates will be very efficient once again and
localized flooding remains possible. Storm motion should be to
the east at 15-20 kts but any repetitive activity would be
pushing our flash flood thresholds. The jet-level ascent remains
in place through about 03z Monday which should keep showers
going a little longer than what we saw today into the evening
hours.

Then we sit in a very stagnant southwesterly upper level
pattern. Presumably a few waves will work down that regime here
and there, dewpoints stay in the low to mid 70s through the
period. This should result in persistent daily shower and
thunderstorm chances, a little stronger wave is still progged to
arrive on Thursday into Friday which will probably result in
increased coverage and persistence of storms. The clouds/rain
should prevent maximum temperatures from reaching high enough to
produce advisory conditions despite the mid 70s dewpoints.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

All sites should see at least one round of thunderstorms this
afternoon, and possibly another one this evening. Where skies
can clear out some tonight, fog development is a good bet. KMVN
is most likely to do so, and have 1/2SM FG there. Similar to
this morning, low MVFR ceilings are likely throughout the area
after sunrise, and they may linger for much of the morning. Some
convective development is possible after 16Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DRS