000
FXUS65 KREV 152016
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
116 PM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A drier weather pattern returns with temperatures warming further
through this week. Look for afternoon highs increasing to around
10 degrees above average for the last half of the week and
upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through the reminder of the week:

As the upper low continues to slowly track east into the central
Great Basin, thicker clouds and shower chances will continue to
decrease over western NV and the Sierra through this evening into
Tuesday. Northerly upper flow will draw drier air into the region
with shower chances decreasing to <10% across the region through
the remainder of the week. Hi-Res guidance projects an upper short
wave pressing south into the Pacific Northwest that will sag even
further through Tuesday into northeast CA and the northern half
of NV. A more westerly flow aloft will result over the Sierra into
western NV with continued dry conditions and afternoon westerly
breezes resembling those of a summer afternoon Zephyr. With
stronger forcing and moisture left more north across the northwest
US, winds will generally remain light with some gusts reaching
15-20 mph in the afternoon for the Sierra and far northeast CA-
far northwest NV locations. If your concern is showers, please
refer to paragraph three, the extended range outlook.

Although daytime highs will not be anything close to summertime
values, temperatures will generally be on the upswing, rising at
least 10 degrees above seasonal April averages. Blended guidance
also shows a high confidence projection of Sierra valley highs
reaching into the 60s while lower valley areas show a more
consistent rise into the 70s. Overnight lows will also be on the
rise, generally above the freezing mark for once. A few Sierra
valleys, however, will still see lows in the mid-upper 20s. Not
to forget about our friends in Mono county, the Mammoth airport
will see highs reaching into the 60s by mid-week. Higher
elevations like Mammoth Mountain will still not see highs break
out of the upper 40s with overnight lows staying for the most part
below freezing through the week.

Extended Range Outlook (The weekend and beyond):

GFS ensemble guidance is dancing around the idea of more unsettled
conditions going into the weekend. But European ECS ensemble
simulations are pulling a realty check, and pointing towards a
drier solution during the same period. Once the uncertainty
clears, we’ll be prompt to pass along the winner. My money is on
the ECS-ENS guidance. Although there are a few simulations
flashing the idea of a few light showers by the weekend, current
ensemble multi-run simulations are still trending drier into the
weekend, with only a low confidence blended speculation of a more
active pattern around early next week. Spring looks to have broken
out...enjoy!

-Amanda

&&

.AVIATION...

* A drier north-northwest upper flow pushes east into the region
  today, bringing overall VFR conditions to main area terminals
  through this week. The only exception will be a few Sierra
  valleys that may see an increased chance (IFR-LIFR: 20-30%) of
  fog formation overnight under mostly clear skies. Freezing fog
  looks to burn-off my mid-morning Tuesday. An upper short wave
  pressing south into the Pacific Northwest will sag south into NE
  CA and Northern NV Tuesday, increasing a more westerly flow
  aloft with FL100 winds increasing to 20-25 kts. Look for periods
  of light chop across Sierra terminals through Tuesday as well.
  Otherwise, brief periods of mid-high level cloudiness, and
  generally lower shower chances (less than 10%) will continue
  through the week.

-Amanda

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$