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000
FXUS63 KTOP 231728
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled pattern sets up Thursday into the weekend with
  several rounds of thunderstorms, including the potential for
  severe weather Thursday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 421 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

A quick synopsis of the region shows a shortwave oscillating over
Minnesota, quasi-zonal flow over the central Plains, with a surface
low positioned over southwestern Kansas and a trough axis extending
northeast into central Iowa. Showers and a few thunderstorms have
developed along the trough axis over the Missouri river valley in
KS/NE/MO where RAP analysis has the best upper-level support and
instability co-located. This surface trough and surface boundary
will slowly move across Kansas today, shifting the winds to the
northwest and ushering in a slightly drier air mass. Temperatures
should not be impacted too much with this frontal passage with highs
still expected to reach the low to mid 70s this afternoon. Most
precipitation will stay in far northeastern Kansas and possibly far
east-central Kansas into the late morning hours. This boundary will
continue to push south into central Oklahoma by Wednesday, stalling
out as a few weak mid-level perturbations eject into the central
Plains. With better moisture staying south and along this boundary
not expecting much precipitation with these weak wave passes, but
some scattered light showers could develop Wednesday afternoon.

By Thursday, the surface boundary will lift north as a warm front as
a stout shortwave begins to approach the Plains from the southwest.
Dreary/drizzly conditions will follow the warm front as it moves
north Thursday with elevated showers expected through much of the
day Thursday. With instability increasing and the ejecting shortwave
increasing mid and upper level support, some elevated storms could
develop during the afternoon and evening hours Thursday with large
hail being the main concern.

As we get into Friday morning, a secondary push of the shortwave
will enter the region, taking on more of a negative tilt. A
deepening lee cyclone will push into central Nebraska during the day
Friday with all of eastern Kansas residing in the warm sector of the
cyclone. A dryline will likely develop in central Kansas by the
afternoon hours that could become the focal point for strong to
severe weather across eastern Kansas. Instability and shear will
remain in place for severe weather to occur, but uncertainty still
remains between guidance in how fast the main upper wave will push
across the region. Latest runs do depict a slight eastern shift in
where ingredients for severe weather may co-locate with eastern
portions of the area possibly trending higher for a severe threat.
All that said, Friday afternoon appears to be the most likely
timerange for severe weather to occur given the setup, so make sure
to stay tuned for further details in the coming few days leading up
to the system. Another trough is expected to eject into the central
Plains again this weekend with additional chances for rain and
thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions expected with high-based convection having moved
off to the south and east and drier air moving in on north
winds. A few gusts around 20 knots are expected through peak
heating. East winds develop in the late portion of the forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Poage