National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KTWC 132054
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
154 PM MST Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry across Southeast Arizona with
temperatures several degrees above average through the weekend
before cooling early next week. A dry weather system passing
through the region will result in gusty south to southwest winds
into Monday. After a brief cool down, high pressure will push
temperatures back to well above average later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Current water vapor shows a strong upper level low
centered just off the northern California coast and ridging over
the central U.S. Temperatures today and Sunday will be a few
degrees above normal. The upper level low will move south and
eastward over the next couple of days with the center moving
through northern Arizona and southern Utah Monday. Precipitation
will stay to the north with the main impacts from this system
being strong gusty winds and a brief cooldown on Monday. Winds
will be elevated through Monday with the strongest winds expected
Monday east of Tucson. Some areas along the AZ/NM border could
reach wind advisory levels, but have opted to not put out any
products since the affected area is small at this time.
Temperatures Monday will be 8-12 degrees below normal.

However, this cool down will be short as positive height
anomalies set up over the region again through the end of the work
week. Tuesday temperatures warm to around normal then 90s return
for the lower deserts Wednesday into Friday. The first 95 of the
year will be possible as well with the Tucson airport currently
seeing a 30 percent chance Thursday and 34 percent chance Friday.
Other areas like Nogales and Douglas will flirt with 90 degrees
Thursday and Friday as well.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20-25k ft across the majority of SE AZ today,
mainly hugging the International border. SFC winds SWLY at 10-18 kts
with gusts up to 25 kts until 14/04Z before becoming light and
variable overnight. SWLY SFC winds pick up after 14/18Z at 15-20 kts
with gusts up to 30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry across Southeast Arizona with above
normal temperatures this weekend. Minimum relative humidity 8
to 16 percent in valleys through Sunday. Slight improvements
Monday to RH with the exception of eastern Cochise County. Gusty
winds into early next week as a couple of dry system move through
the region to the north. Monday will see the strongest winds with
speeds 15-25 mph east of Tucson. Some areas could see brief
critical to near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon
and then again on Monday east of Tucson, but fire danger and ERCs
are still low for this time of year.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson