Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 280541 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1141 PM MDT Sun May 27 2018

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Southwest flow aloft will continue for the next 24 hrs. Low level
moisture returning to the eastern border counties of NM, and can`t
rule out patchy br or low clouds mainly over far ne NM between about
10-15Z. Sfc low over se CO/ne NM will allow for gusty south to
southwest winds to around 35kt over ne/east central NM aft 19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT Sun May 27 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
High temperatures will fall a few degrees most places on Monday in
response to an upper level low pressure system moving over the
central Rockies. This low will keep southwest winds fairly strong
over northeast areas where fire weather concerns will persist for one
more day. The system will send a weak back door cold front into
eastern areas Monday night, where there will be a few more degrees
of cooling on Tuesday. There will be a chance of thunderstorms across
the northeast Tuesday and especially Wednesday, when a weak
disturbance will cross in southwest flow aloft. A warming trend will
commence and southwest winds will strengthen during the latter half
of the work week with near record warmth across south central and
southeast areas starting Wednesday, and fire weather concerns in many
areas starting Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low pressure system over the Great Basin this
afternoon will track slowly northeastward across the northern and
central Rockies Monday and Tuesday, then eject across the upper Great
Plains Wednesday. This system will keep winds aloft moderately
strong on Monday, and a lee trough will persist, causing breezy to
locally windy conditions and fire weather concerns to persist across
northeast areas. The aforementioned slight cooling on Monday will
result in high temperatures near normal in the west, but readings
will remain up to 12 degrees above normal across the east.

Temperatures will begin to rebound central and west Tuesday, but not
until Wednesday in the east thanks to Monday night`s back door cold
front. The GFS and ECMWF suggests another weak back door cold front
could dip into the far northeast Tuesday, and it may trigger a few
storms in the process. However, a better chance for thunderstorms is
forecast along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains on
Wednesday, when a weak upper level disturbance will cross in
southwest flow aloft. It doesn`t look like the storms Tuesday and
Wednesday will have much moisture to work with, so they will probably
have small wetting footprints with gusty and erratic winds. A
marginal risk of severe thunderstorms is expected in Union County
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The warming trend during the latter half of the week will result in
near record warmth. High temperatures should peak on Friday around 5
to 17 degrees above normal. Triple digit heat will become widespread
across the east central and southeast plains Friday, when the high
temperature should reach around 106 degrees in Roswell. An upper
level trough passing north of NM Friday night should send a weak
Pacific front through the state with a few degrees of cooling in many
places on Saturday.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR NORTHEASTERN NM THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

Extremely dry southwest flow remains in place over NM today as a
broad area of low pressure spins over the Great Basin. Critical fire
weather across northeastern NM will slowly diminish as winds taper
off this evening. Widespread poor recoveries will occur over central
and western NM tonight with seasonably cool overnight temperatures.
Another round of critical fire weather is on tap Memorial Day over
northeastern NM. Meanwhile, the remainder of NM will see winds trend
lighter with widespread single digit humidity. Another night of poor
to fair recoveries is expected Monday night.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be down days with lighter winds as the
area of low pressure over the Great Basin shifts northeastward into
the northern plains. Temperatures will trend hotter as strong high
pressure lifts north from Mexico. Poor to fair recoveries are on tap
again both nights with 8 to 14 hours of single digit humidity across
the entire area each afternoon.

Winds will trend breezier Thursday as the upper ridge breaks down
ahead of the next area of low pressure entering California. Marginal
fire weather is expected for many areas Thursday with more single
digit humidity, hot temperatures, and a very unstable atmosphere.
Friday and potentially Saturday are looking to be the next peak fire
weather days as the upper wave ejects northeast through Colorado.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM MDT Monday for the following
zones... NMZ103-104.

&&

$$


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