Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 271731 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1231 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...VFR TAFs will continue for the remainder of today and
into tonight. Upstream ridging aloft remains in place over west
and central Texas and will shift very slowly east through the next
day or so, with fairly dry conditions above the boundary layer,
further solidifying local stability. High pressure will remain in
control at the surface, with light to moderate southeast to south
southeast winds. Skies will be mostly clear otherwise, with just
enough moisture to support a few low level clouds, especially
overnight. No significant aviation concerns.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Dry air continues to be drawn southward around the
subtropical storm in the eastern Gulf. This will keep skies nearly
clear through the next 24 hours. Surface winds will slowly shift
from southerly to southeasterly this afternoon, but should remain
right around 10 knots. Lighter winds will return overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Another day of much above normal
temperatures for late May, but only one of the three standard
locations will threaten records (HRL record today is 100). Alberto
continues to drift northward along the immediate western Florida
coast, while strong midlevel ridge remains anchored along west
Texas. Both of these features continue to draw significant dry air
southward across east Texas, which will keep skies nearly sunny and
allow temps to soar. This pattern changes little during the next 36
hours, so highs again tomorrow reach near 100 degrees along the
coast to around 105 west of US281, with clear skies.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday): The long term portion
of the forecast is expected to be completely boring. 500 mb high
pressure will gradually build over the Lone Star State and become
centered over the Texas Big Bend by the end of the period. With
the complete domination of this weather feature over Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, dry weather is a certainty. Well
above normal temperatures are also likely, with consecutive days
of record high temperatures a possibility.

MARINE (Now through Monday): Modest onshore flow will continue
through the next 36 hours with weak high pressure across the
northwest Gulf held there by SubTropical Storm Alberto moving
northward along the western Florida coast. Alberto remains weak,
so swell activity moving across the Gulf from it will be minimal,
and would arrive later Monday, possibly reaching 4 feet briefly
Monday afternoon. Winds will remain light through the period,
generally 10 knots or less.

Monday Night through Saturday: The pressure gradient during this
portion of marine forecast will begin to become enhanced along the
Lower Texas Coast. Although moderate seas are expected, winds will
become breezy, especially over the Laguna Madre. Small Craft
Exercise Caution is anticipated for the bay Tuesday through




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