Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 171131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
631 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018


IFR ceilings are expected to continue for all TAF sites but KAEX
for the next 1-2 hours before improving during the mid morning.
Patchy fog could result result in MVFR and TEMPO IFR visibility
restrictions before mixing out by 14Z. Scattered showers are
expected to beginning developing by mid morning and will continue
through the afternoon hours. Southwest winds will increase to
10-15 knots and allow for ceilings to improve to VFR by this
afternoon. Terminals along and south of I-10 could also have gusts
of 20-25 knots through late this afternoon.

Winds are expected to decrease to 5-10 knots around or shortly
after 00Z this evening. Ceilings will begin to drop to MVFR and
then IFR/LIFR as stratus begin to build back into the region. Fog
is expected to develop again overnight tonight resulting in
periods of IFR and possibly LIFR visibility restrictions.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/

Some patchy, light fog has developed this morning within the
unseasonably warm, moist airmass presently in place across the
region. Lowest visibilities observed thus far have been in the 4
to 5 mile range and while some patchy dense fog cannot be ruled
out as sunrise approaches, it is not expected to become widespread
enough to warrant a dense fog advisory at this time. Offshore,
guidance developing patchy marine fog across the nearshore waters
this morning (corroborated by the Lake Charles river pilots)
indicates it will have the potential to linger, in varying
degrees of density, through at least Sunday.

An upper level trough stemming from Iowa out into the gulf will
provide enough of a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms
to develop beginning around mid morning with the loss of daytime
heating and upper support allowing the activity to wane by this
evening. Forecast soundings show enough instability to at least
mention the possibility of a stronger storm or two during the
afternoon, but with a fairly high freezing level above 12k feet
and very little shear, the most significant threat would be the
possibility of some stronger winds.

The approach of a second trough ejecting out of the desert
southwest on Sunday will provide support for another round of
scattered convection during the day. Once again, the loss of
daytime heating should allow storms to wane, but with the trough
still approaching from the west, isolated showers will likely
continue Sunday night becoming more numerous Monday morning. This
trough will be accompanied by a more substantial cold front that
is progged to move through the area Monday afternoon.

Behind the front, more seasonable temperatures and drier
conditions will filter in through the middle of the week with
guidance indicating another trough bringing rain chances back to
the region by next weekend.


Light to modest southerly flow will persist over the coastal
waters through the weekend. Patchy marine fog will be possible
over the nearshore waters beginning this morning through Sunday.
A few showers and storms will be possible in the warm and humid
air mass today and Sunday. A cold front will move across the
coastal waters on Monday. Stronger offshore flow will develop
behind the front for Monday night into Tuesday.


AEX  82  64  79  65 /  30  30  60  30
LCH  79  69  78  70 /  40  20  50  20
LFT  80  68  78  69 /  40  20  50  30
BPT  79  69  79  69 /  40  20  50  30




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