Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 200253 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
953 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.


.UPDATE...Current package generally on track. With a patch of
cirrus moving over the area attm, radiational cooling overnight
will be lessened, but with a cooler airmass moving south over the
area, do not feel the lessened radiational component will be
missed. No updates planned attm.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 623 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

00Z issuance...VFR conditions expected through the forecast under
general northerly flow.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday/...An upper low pressure area over
the northeast conus will move east over the western Atlantic while
a weak upper ridge builds into the region from the west. The
center of a strong area of low pressure across the upper midwest
will move east to the lower Great Lakes region, with high pressure
extending south to the northern gulf. With a dry airmass in place,
along with mostly clear skies, low temperatures tonight in the 40s
will be much below normal. /22

SHORT TERM /Friday night Through Sunday night/...High pressure
will continue to build eastward and off the east coast Friday
night. This will result in an east to southeast flow, allowing
moisture levels to begin to increase ahead of an approaching
trough over the central plains. Dry conditions continue through
Saturday as the trough slowly approaches with increasing clouds
during the afternoon hours. Rain chances begin to increase from
the west Saturday night as the upper trough swings eastward with
an associated sfc low and cold front moving east. The highest
rain chances are expected on Sunday and Sunday night as the cold
front moves across. Widespread clouds and precipitation are
expected to limit the development of significant instability for
severe storms. While some locally heavy rain is possible across
northern areas, the highest totals are expected to remain north
of the area. /13

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...The front moves east of the
area on Monday, however the upper low lingers across the Tennessee
Valley through early Tuesday. This will maintain partly to mostly
cloudy skies along with the potential of some light rain showers.
The upper low opens up and moves east by Tuesday night with a
drier airmass moving into the area through Thursday. Temps start
the period below normal and moderate to above normal by the end of
the period. /13

MARINE...A moderate to strong northerly wind flow is expected
late this evening and overnight in the wake of a cold front that
moves across the marine area early today. A moderate to strong
easterly flow is expected late Friday night through Saturday in
response to an area of low pressure and a developing cold front
approaching from the west. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
ahead and along the front with this best coverage occurring Sunday
and Sunday night. /22


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for GMZ631-632-650-



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