Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 260053
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
853 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.UPDATE...

Forecast is on track and no major changes needed. Skies will be
mostly clear with lows falling into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Friday]...

VFR overnight into Thursday morning. Winds will increase beginning
mid morning with gusts to 25 knots possible, generally across SE
AL and SW GA with decreasing speeds with southward extent. A cold
frontal passage will bring thunderstorms across SE AL and SW GA,
impacting DHN and ABY in the late morning and early afternoon with
possible drops to MVFR in heavier storms. Low confidence in storms
at the other sites. VFR will prevail outside of convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [236 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

An upper level low over the Central Plains will sweep southeast to
the Lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Thursday. The associated cold
front will be pushing across Central and Southwest Alabama at that
time. Ahead of the front, high pressure will remain in control of
our weather through the overnight with partly cloudy skies. After a
pleasant afternoon of temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees, overnight lows will drop in the mid to upper 50s inland,
with lower 60s near the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The upper level shortwave currently centered over Kansas will
continue to quickly move southeastward, bringing a brief end to
quiet weather across portions of the tri-state region on Thursday.
Given the quick movement of this system and the likelihood of the
jet streak rounding the base of the trough and lifting the system
northeastward, rain chances will be confined to mainly our
Alabama and Georgia counties. Despite this, there will be a period
from mid to late Thursday afternoon where several strong storms
will be possible across southeastern Alabama and
southwest/southcentral Georgia. Moisture will be sufficient, as
PWATs are forecast to recover to 1.25 to 1.50" across these areas.
Uninhibited diabatic heating will allow for pockets of CAPE
ranging from 500 to perhaps as much as 1000 J/KG as depicted by
some of the latest model guidance. This combined with 40 to 50 kts
of deep layer shear will support robust convection, with the
strongest storms capable of yielding damaging wind gusts. Given
last weekend`s event, it is worth noting that shear profiles
across southeast Alabama and southern Georgia will likely be
unidirectional, which is not conducive for any rotating storms or
tornadoes.

This system will quickly clear the region late Thursday night/early
Friday with another upper level shortwave trough on it`s heels. This
feature will traverse the region Friday afternoon/evening. However,
with mid level moisture largely being cleared out of the area by the
previous system, this feature will likely only yield cloudy
conditions across the region. Temperature wise, expect highs
ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid 50s to low
60s.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

A trough centered over the central Great Lakes will be ejected
eastward late this weekend, opening the door for deep layer ridging
across much of the eastern U.S. through the end of the period. Dry
conditions are expected with temperatures gradually warming through
the period.


.MARINE...

Winds will generally range from 10 to 15 knots through the weekend
with resultant seas of 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance for showers
Thursday night into early Friday morning.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from high dispersion values Thursday afternoon, there are no
other fire weather concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall amounts with Thursday`s system will generally be less
than a half of an inch and remain confined to a small area
northwest of a line from Dothan through Albany. Thereafter, no
rain is expected through early next week. Thus, flooding is not a
concern at this time.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   57  81  56  77  54 /   0  20  10   0   0
Panama City   62  75  58  73  58 /   0  20   0   0   0
Dothan        57  76  53  74  53 /   0  50   0   0   0
Albany        56  79  54  75  53 /   0  60  10   0   0
Valdosta      56  81  57  77  53 /   0  20  20   0   0
Cross City    58  80  60  78  55 /   0   0  30  10   0
Apalachicola  62  76  60  74  58 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Thursday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Scholl
NEAR TERM...Wool
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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