Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FGUS71 KILN 291452

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1052 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018

...Above Normal Flood Risk Through Early Spring...

Normal flood potential means at least some flooding is possible.
Above normal flood potential means more widespread flooding is
possible with some points possibly reaching moderate or major
flood levels.

This is a biweekly flood outlook issued by local NWS offices in
winter and early spring to summarize basin conditions and to
assess the potential for flooding. The outlooks are based on
current and forecast hydrometeorological conditions.

The factors considered when determining flood potential include
current streamflow and reservoir levels compared to normal for
the period, water equivalent in any snow pack, soil moisture
and expected precipitation.

Little to no snow cover across the region.

Streamflow was near normal to slightly below normal for many
local waterways.

There is no ice on area rivers.

Soil moisture per measurements from the Natural Resources
Conservations Service and modeled soil moisture for the region
was much above normal for late March throughout the local area.

Area reservoirs in general were near normal to slightly above
normal of winter flood control pool level.

The region is currently in an active and wet pattern as a frontal
boundary remains somewhat stationary across the Ohio Valley,
leading to multiple rounds of rain. Furthermore, model solutions
in the short range support additional rounds of precipitation on
top of increasingly-wet soils.

Longer-range outlooks in the 2- to 3-week period from the Climate
Prediction Center indicate favorable probabilities for above
normal precipitation (higher confidence in the wet pattern
continuing in the region through the next 2 to 3 weeks).
Above normal rainfall during this period may lead to additional
rises on area waterways in the short and long term, thus yielding an
elevated flood potential for early spring.

Real time river information and forecasts for specific locations
along rivers across Central and Southern Ohio...Northern Kentucky
and Southeast Indiana can be found at



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