Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 252044
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement through about Day
5/6-Tue/Wed with regards to the overall upper level pattern across
the CONUS. An upper low will remain over the western U.S. until late
Day 4/Mon when Sub-Tropical Storm Alberto is forecast to make
landfall along the central Gulf Coast. As the sub-tropical storm
lifts slowly north across the Deep South on Day 5/Tue, the upper
ridge over the eastern states will weaken, allowing the western
upper low to migrate east into the Plains. Another upper trough will
quickly develop across the West however, and the eastern ridge will
quickly build over the central U.S. as the remnants of the
subtropical low lift northeast toward New England through Day 7/Thu.
By Days 7-8/Thu-Fri, the evolution of the western trough is handled
quite differently by deterministic guidance and this will impact
forecast confidence concerning possible critical conditions across
the southwestern U.S. Confidence remains highest that elevated to
critical fire weather conditions will be possible on Days
3-4/Sun-Mon with potential conditional on the evolution of the
western trough during Day 6-8/Wed-Fri.

...Days 3-4/Sun-Mon -- Portions of the Southern Rockies and adjacent
High Plains...

Strong southwesterly deep layer flow will be in place across Four
Corners region into the High Plains on Sunday. A weak surface trough
will run north-south through the High Plains and gusty surface winds
are expected from southeast AZ through much of NM into southeast CO
and western TX. Downslope winds will be especially strong across
parts of northeast NM and southeast CO and critical fire weather
conditions are expected where fuels are dry across this region.
Broader elevated conditions will envelop that region and depending
on fuel conditions moving forward, additional expansion in the 70
percent area may be needed.

The threat will persist and shift slightly eastward on Day 4/Mon as
the upper low shifts slowly east. Due to some uncertainty regarding
fuel conditions and potential position of a surface dryline,
adjustments are possible in the 40 and 70 percent areas.

...Days 6-8/Wed-Fri -- Southwestern States...

After a lull in fire concerns on Day 5/Tue, another upper trough
will begin to dig across the western U.S. Elevated fire weather
concerns will return to parts of the Southwest/Great Basin vicinity
on Day 6/Wed as southwesterly flow increases in conjunction with
continued dryness. Critical conditions could develop into the end of
the period, but aforementioned uncertainty precludes any areas at
this time.

..Leitman.. 05/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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