Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 181843

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z


Overall forecast remains on track and only minor adjustments were
made based on latest model guidance. For more details, see previous
discussion below.

..Leitman.. 03/18/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018/

A compact shortwave trough is forecast to continue moving eastward
across from the southern High Plains and Ozarks to the TN Valley by
Monday evening. 40-50 kt mid-level westerly winds will remain over
much of the southern High Plains on Day 2/Monday, and a
low-amplitude shortwave trough with slightly stronger mid-level
winds should move over this region Monday afternoon. At the surface,
a low across northeastern OK/southeastern KS early Monday morning
will develop quickly eastward into TN by Monday evening, with a
trailing cold front sweeping southeastward off the TX Coast and into
the Gulf of Mexico through the day.

...Portions of the Southern High Plains into Deep South TX...
Strong/gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph will
likely occur across portions of the southern High Plains into deep
south TX on Day 2/Monday. The most likely area for a critical
combination of sustained 20-25 mph winds and RH values of 15-25%
will likely develop from southeastern NM into parts of west/south TX
through the day. Here, dry to very dry fuels are also present owing
to a lack of recent meaningful precipitation, which should help
support large fire spread. Elevated conditions should occur for a
greater portion of the southern Plains into deep south TX, but
slightly lower forecast wind speeds and/or marginally reduced RH
values currently preclude a larger critical delineation.

...Please see for graphic product...

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