017
AXPZ20 KNHC 140240
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jul 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W from 03N northward into
El Salvador, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Nearby convection
is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W from 03N northward to
16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted over the northern half of the wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 118W from 04N to 19N, moving
westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted over the southern half of the wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 130W from 05N to 17N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 14N between 126W and 134W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 140W from 05N to 17N, moving
westward around 10-15 kt. No convection is noted with this wave
at this time.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N93W to 09N100W to 10N129W.
The ITCZ extends from 10N129W to 10N139W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 90W and
98W, from 06N to 12N between 108W and 117W, and along the ITCZ
between 122W and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate SE winds are occurring across the northern Gulf of
California as troughing prevails over the Baja California
Peninsula, and gentle south of there. Slight seas are in the
Gulf, except higher near the entrance. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds prevail across the offshore waters of Mexico under
weak ridging. Moderate seas prevail across the area.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N gap winds will occur in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through midweek as high pressure builds
over central Mexico. Winds may increase there to fresh to strong
Fri night as the pressure gradient tightens. Farther south,
moderate E winds, generated by gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo,
will occur well offshore of southern Mexico through late this
week. Fresh to strong S to SE winds will then develop over the
northern Gulf of California early on Tue and continue through
midweek as low pressure deepens over the Desert Southwest.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh E gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of
Papagayo as low pressure prevails over northern Colombia.
Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas extend through the
waters well offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala. South of the
monsoon trough, moderate southerly winds prevail. Moderate seas
in S to SW swell prevail over the Central and South American
waters.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf
of Papagayo, with pulsing strong winds and occasionally rough
seas then expected tonight through late week as high pressure
builds over Mexico and the Gulf of America. Moderate to fresh E
winds will extend through the outer waters offshore of Guatemala
and El Salvador. Moderate to fresh N winds may pulse in the Gulf
of Panama by midweek. A new S to SW swell will continue to
propagate through the South American waters through the middle of
this week, promoting rough seas offshore of Ecuador and
Colombia.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1035 mb high pressure well north of the discussion waters near
43N142W extends a ridge across the waters north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh trades are in the belt from
11N to 18N. Moderate NE winds are also in the NW corner with
mainly gentle winds elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are south of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough. Rough seas in advancing southerly swell prevail across
the waters south of 04N. Moderate seas in mixed swell elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate
seas will continue north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ this
week as ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific. A new S to SW
swell will propagate through the southern waters over the next
several days, promoting rough seas south of 05N. A new N swell
may lead to rough seas north of 25N by midweek.

$$
ERA