Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 280401

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
300 UTC Mon May 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 09N102W to 09N125W,
then transitions to the ITCZ which continues to 08N127W to beyond
08N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
found within 60 nm of 09N107.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is present elsewhere from 07N to 11N between
103W and 112W. Scattered moderate and strong convection is noted
from 06N to 12N between 84W and 95W and from 06N to 12N between
116W and 127W.



A ridge dominates the region W of 105W. A 1032 mb high centered
near 37N137W extends SE across the region to just SW of the
Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds
across the offshore waters of Baja California will become fresh
Mon and Tue, then moderate Wed. Seas of 6 to 9 ft will linger
across this area tonight then diminish gradually Mon and Tue. To
the east of 100W and Cabo San Lucas, gentle NW to W winds prevail
across the offshore waters to Puerto Angel. NW to N winds will
freshen offshore and to the south of Cabo San Lucas this
afternoon through tonight before winds diminish slightly late Mon
through Wed as the high shifts back to the NW.

Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW winds are expected
across the Gulf waters through Tue night, with strong afternoon
and evening sea breezes recurring along the Mexican coastline
from Mazatlan to Guaymas Mon. A low pressure trough developing
over the Baja Peninsula will cause winds over the Gulf to become
light to gentle by Wed. The same trough of low pressure will
bring fresh to locally strong winds to the waters N of 29N Wed
night and Thu.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds are expected to be variable during
the next few days, with moderate NW to N winds at night and light
SW to S winds during the late mornings and afternoons.


The monsoon trough is gradually shifting back to the S as
persistent elongated low pressure over Central America and the
Yucatan peninsula weakens. This trend will continue across the
regional Pacific waters through at least Thu as the trough
continues to slowly sink S and support light to moderate SW to W
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell for the waters west of
Central America.


Elsewhere, the ridge building over the north central Pacific is
producing a modest pressure gradient across the trade wind belt,
with moderate to fresh winds observed in satellite-derived wind
data from 09N to 25N to the west of 120W. Seas are running 6 to
10 ft across this zone this evening and will change very little
through Tue. The high is forecast to shift NW Tue through Wed
and then migrating W later in the week. This will produce a very
slight decrease in areal coverage of the fresh trade winds into
mid week.

Deepening low pressure over the Desert SW of the U.S. will
combine with building high pressure W of California to tighten
the pressure gradient along the California coast. Long period N
swell generated by these winds will cause seas N of 25N between
120W and 135W to build to between 8 and 10 ft by Wed morning.

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