Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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000
FXAK68 PAFC 241257
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
457 AM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A frontal boundary lifting north across the Gulf will continue to
bring widespread rainfall to Kodiak Island, the eastern Kenai
Peninsula, and Prince William Sound today. The highest rainfall
amounts will be confined to the easterly, upslope areas with the
western Kenai northward into the Mat Valley continuing to stay
mostly dry under downsloped flow. The front will weaken as it pushes
north and may even stall over the northern Gulf and start to wash
out this morning with the more steady rain becoming more showery
just off the northern Gulf coastal areas. The associated low will
track northward along the AKPen and into Bristol Bay through Monday
morning before becoming an open wave and lifting inland. As it treks
north today, another shortwave will round the southern periphery
with a reinforcing front lifting north across the Gulf through this
evening. This will bring another wave of precipitation to Kodiak,
the eastern Kenai, and Prince William Sound later today. However,
with moisture plume having been shunted off, rainfall should not be
as heavy as it was the past 24 hrs. The unsettled weather will
continue into the workweek with the Bristol Bay low lifting inland
Monday and another low lifting out of the North Pacific towards the
southern AKPen by Tuesday.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, the BERING SEA and the
ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2)...

A cutoff low continues to promote showery conditions across the
AKPEN and Southwest Alaska this morning while maintaining strong
northerly winds across the Bering. A winter weather advisory for
the Pribilof Islands has been allowed to expire, though winds
continue to gust to 45 mph and visibility at Saint Paul and Saint
George remain down to around 1 statue mile due to snow and blowing
snow. Conditions across the Pribilofs will slowly improve through
the rest of today as snow eventually comes to an end by midday
and wind gusts decrease to below 35 mph by later this evening.
Over the next couple of days the cutoff low over the southern
Bering will slowly lift into interior Alaska with showery
conditions across Southwest to persist through at least Monday.

The next matter of interest involves an arctic trough pushing
across Northeast Russia into the Chukchi Sea today. A very cold
air mass is associated with the trough with 850 mb temperatures as
low as 20 to 24 degrees below zero. Some of this air being
pinched off by a southward moving shortwave will reach the northern
Bering by this afternoon. By Monday the wave is forecast to
become entirely cutoff from the arctic trough while amplifying
into a vertically stacked low somewhere over or just west of Saint
Matthew Island. Enhanced northerly winds will promote a threat of
extreme freezing spray along the ice edge if not all of zone 767.
Any prior rain across the Aleutians should transition to all snow
as cooler temperatures filter southward through early next week.
Likewise, p-types for Southwest look to return to all snow
sometime on Tuesday.

-BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Weather conditions across Southern Alaska are setting up for a
multi-day precipitation event as Arctic air helps intensify the
Southeastern Bering low. It begins as the low tracks between the
Alaska Peninsula at its strongest and tapers off towards the Yukon
Delta as it weakens through the end of the forecast period.
Forecast run-to-run consistency started mixed, but is improving.
In the East, a ridge moves across the Gulf through Thursday. A
substantially stronger North Pacific system enters the Western
Aleutians and Bering, taking over Southern Alaska for the weekend.

Widespread rain continues across the Aleutians, AKPEN, Kodiak
Island and the Kenai Peninsula. Mixed rain and snow along the
Southwestern Coastal zones is expected, with snow further North
and over the Pribilofs through Saturday. Breezy conditions from
the Central Bering across to the Canadian Border will subside
briefly before the upper 970s mb North Pacific low enters the
picture. Gusty winds begin over the Western Aleutians and Bering,
increasing to large areas of gale force by Thursday, as pressure
drops to the mid-950s near the Western Aleutians. This well
developed low will weaken as it tracks across the Southern Bering
through the weekend, bringing gales into the Eastern Aleutians
before diminishing Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall will spread
across the Aleutians, AKPEN, Kodiak Island and along the front
along and over Southcentral Alaska, with the greatest
precipitation falling over the Western portions of Southcentral
Alaska, the AKPEN and Kodiak Island for Friday and Saturday.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds generally 10 kts or less are
expected to persist through the TAF period. Strong southeasterly
flow aloft in association with northward advancing frontal systems
should prevent showers from making it over the terminal and promote
drier conditions.

&&

$$


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