985
FXUS61 KBTV 111636
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1236 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will develop and move slowly today into
tonight, with northern New York seeing the most numerous
showers. Additional shower activity is expected on Sunday as
weak low pressure crosses the region, with temperatures
trending a bit cooler with more persistent cloudiness. Following
the weekend, chances for rain return but with no signs of
impactful, stormy weather. Temperatures look to remain largely
seasonable.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1233 PM EDT Saturday...No significant changes were made with
this update. Daytime heating has caused showers to develop over
northern New York and they will continue to expand in coverage
during the afternoon. They will become numerous over northern
New York and expand into western Vermont where they will be more
scattered. Cloud cover has also increased, and it should be
mostly cloudy and overcast for the rest of the day. Pea sized
hail is possible in the strongest storms in New York but there
is not a threat of severe storms. Previous discussion follows...

Previous Discussion...
This weekend will feature unsettled weather with periodic
shower activity. We remain confident there will be no
thunderstorms with these showers as neither surface heating or
cooling aloft will be strong enough to boost instability enough
to get sufficiently cold cloud tops. That being said, skinny
CAPE, even with limited warm cloud depths, and slow steering
flow will lead to some downpours in a classic hit and miss type
of shower regime. The most numerous showers this afternoon will
be in northern New York, with coverage of showers a bit more
limited in the Champlain Valley. East of the Greens shower
chances decrease to near zero due to stable marine air
continuing to drifting in from the southeast. Precipitation
chances on Sunday become more evenly distributed across our
region as the upper low passes to our east with a broad trough
overhead and low level flow becoming more westerly in eastern
Vermont. This pattern also will induce more widespread cloud
cover, keeping temperatures a bit cooler, limiting instability
such that it cancels out the somewhat cooler temperatures aloft.

In total, rainfall amounts will average under 0.25" for most
locations. That being said, some areas will see more rain. While
the official, deterministic forecast shows total rainfall
through the weekend of up to around a half inch in the
northwestern Adirondacks, time-lagged NAM 3km output along with
the HREF probability- matched mean suggests very localized
amounts of near an inch of rain in this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 321 AM EDT Saturday...Weak riding mainly in the mid lvls
builds into our region on Sunday night, followed by a warm type
feature on Monday. Weak ridge could provide conditions favorable
for some patchy fog, but feel potential is conditional and
overall probability is <20% attm so have not placed in fcst.
Temps if some clearing can develop could drop into the lower/mid
30s coldest valleys to lower/mid 40s CPV/SLV. For Monday a warm
frnt lifts from sw to ne acrs our cwa with increasing chc for
showers. This boundary becomes stationary acrs our cwa late
Monday into Tues as it parallels the flow aloft with additional
moisture advection. Difficult to pin point exact placement of
boundary and precip given a rather complex mid/upper lvl pattern
with closed cyclonic circulation near Hudson Bay and building
SE CONUS ridge. For now have highest chc pops along the
International Border for Monday into Monday night. Temps with
clouds hold mostly in the 60s on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Saturday...An unsettled pattern prevails into
midweek with increasing probabilities of a widespread wetting
rainfall on Tues into Tue night. Still some guidance
discrepancies on exact placement of heaviest qpf axis
associated with stalled boundary acrs our region. Latest trends
continue to support a split flow with limited phasing btwn
northern and southern stream systems thru mid week. In addition,
have noted the NBM CAPE of 250 J/kg or greater on Tues is <10%
acrs our region, as soundings show a stable/moist adiabatic
profile with limited sfc heating due to clouds/precip. If cwa
can break out in the warm sector some instability is possible
for thunder, but trends are too low attm to mention in fcst.
Have continued with high likely pops on Tues/Tues night, which
can be increased if needed as confidence improves for a
widespread wetting rainfall. Have noted several ensemble members
showing a much more suppressed outcome, resulting in drier
conditions, similar to what unfolded on Friday acrs our cwa.
Temps hold mostly in the upper 50s to upper 60s thru Weds.
Uncertainty increases further for late week, as predictability
in complex mid/upper lvl pattern is low. Latest ECMWF shows
developing ridge over low pres type scenario, with cyclonic
circulation a bit close for comfort to have high confidence in a
dry fcst on Thurs/Friday. Meanwhile, GFS is advertising weak
s/w ridge building into our region on Thurs/Fri with drier
conditions and comfortable temps. For now have trended drier
with near normal temps, given the large spread in guidance.
Bottom line no significant or high impactful weather is
anticipated over the next 5 to 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions will largely prevail
through the TAF period, aside from any heavier showers that move
over a terminal resulting in some MVFR and possibly IFR visibilities.
BKN/OVC in the 070-100 range will largely persist with periods
of scattering, especially early in the period. Scattered showers
will develop and have a chance of impacting most sites,
especially MSS, but also SLK, PBG, BTV, and RUT, especially in
the 19Z to 23Z timeframe. Additional showers will be possible
overnight as well, but more likely scaling back in coverage and
impacting MSS and SLK. Winds will continue to be light, only
peaking into the 5 to 10 knot range during the daytime and
primarily out of the south/southeast.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Kutikoff