578
FXUS61 KBTV 151738
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
138 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface front will remain draped across our area today and
tonight, leading to additional showers across our region today
and overnight. The front will finally push south of our area on
Thursday, and drier weather will result. The end of the work
week will be warm, with temperatures trending back towards
normal over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 128 PM EDT Wednesday...Convective showers and
thunderstorms have developed as expected over the northern
Adirondacks and over the northern Green Mountains. SPC
Mesoanalysis analyzing 500 J/Kg SBCAPE over northeastern
Vermont, which lines up with the SPC General Thunder outline for
today. Only threat from any storms today will be heavy
rainfall, with climatologically high PW values observed and
slow storm motions forecast. With soils already fairly moist,
will be watching rainfall rates closely especially if any storms
track over the same location multiple times. Otherwise,
forecast on track with no major updates needed. Previous
discussion follows...

Surface front will lift northward back into our area today, and
become stationary across Northern New York and Vermont. With
this surface boundary remaining anchored across the north
country, additional showers are expected today and tonight.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler today than yesterday with
mostly cloudy skies and showery weather anticipated. Fog that
has formed overnight will lift shortly after sunrise. Only a
slight chance for thunder mentioned in the Northeast Kingdom of
Vermont, but not anticipating any strong storms with a lack of
surface based instability present today. Cold front will finally
drop south of our region on Thursday, and chances for showers
will diminish. Warming trend will also begin on Thursday with
temperatures warming into the mid 70s Thursday afternoon, should
be a nice day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall trends in model guidance
continue to support drier conditions for the end of the work
week with lingering showers early Thursday night ending through
the overnight, and weak upper level ridging building in for
Friday. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, temperature
trends for Friday continue upward with modeled mean 925mb temps
around +16C supporting highs well into the 70s with some
isolated 80s possible in the deeper valleys. The good news is
that humidity won`t be an issue with dewpoints only in the 50s,
so it should be a nice end to the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday...The trend towards drier conditions
continues into the weekend and next week with a perusal of
ensemble guidance showing only about 30% of members supporting
daily QPF of greater than 0.1" through the period. Where
previously a weak cold front looked to swing in Friday night
into Saturday, now is progged to weaken and lift north, and a
southern stream system which looked to close off over the
eastern seaboard on Monday is now modeled as an open wave and
south of the forecast area. As such, the North Country and
Vermont is generally in a pocket of little to no precipitation
under mainly zonal flow to weak upper level ridging at times.
Have continued to maintain some low chance PoPs through
Saturday, and thereafter trended the forecast drier and warmer
with highs mid/upper 70s possible again by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Expect scattered coverage of showers to
continue through 00Z as a weak front stalls overhead. Some
showers may be briefly heavy in nature, with reductions to MVFR
or brief IFR visibilities possible due to the moderate to heavy
rain. Some isolated thunderstorms will also be embedded,
especially over northern counties, but coverage will be to
sparse to include at any given TAF site. Otherwise, showers wane
in coverage after 00Z but MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail
overnight as fog, mist, and low stratus develops. Expecting
lowest visibilities (IFR) between 07Z and 11Z at KMPV, KEFK,
and KSLK. Other sites are forecast to remain predominantly MVFR
overnight. Some scattered showers will redevelop Thursday after
12Z, but coverage will not be as widespread as today. Ceilings
will gradually lift toward VFR through 18Z Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Duell/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Duell