Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 240808
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
408 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
While there is a fresh snow cover over the bulk of western and north
central New York, a significant warm up is on the horizon for the
start of the new work week. This will be highlighted by afternoon
temperatures near 60 for many areas on Tuesday. The warmer weather
will be brought to a temporary end by the passage of a cold front
during the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery continues to nicely depict
lake effect clouds south of both Lakes Ontario and Erie in these wee
hours of the morning.

As the base of a northern branch longwave trough moves from southern
Ontario to Quebec overnight, the axis of the coldest air will cross
our region. While this will coincide with drier air finally working
its way into the lower levels, a cold northerly flow will keep some
lake clouds and possibly a few scattered flurries going south of the
Lakes. Temperatures will fall back into the teens and lower 20s,
with single digits to near zero across the North Country.

Canadian high pressure will pass by to our north today, while a
supporting amplifying ridge will be found over the Ohio valley and
Upper Great Lakes. This will promote sun filled skies with H85 temps
of roughly -10C only supporting afternoon highs in the low to mid
30s (40 near the PA border, upper 20s Tug Hill/ western Dacks).

The area of Canadian high pressure will then exit across Quebec
tonight. The return clockwise flow around this feature will then set
the stage for a significant warm up to start the new work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will slowly depart to our northeast Monday, but will
maintain fair weather. Skies for the most part will be mainly sunny
with an increase in high clouds. Warm advective flow on the backside
of the departing high will send temperatures about 10 degrees above
normal with most highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s, although some
downslope areas could reach 60F.

Dry weather will continue Monday night with high pressure still in
control ahead of an approaching shortwave and cold front. A
strengthening south to southeast flow may lead to some gusty
downslope winds, mainly across the higher terrain and off the
Chautauqua Ridge. Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s east
of Lake Ontario to the upper 30s across far western New York as
warmer air continues to move into the area.

Mid level short wave will advance toward the region from the upper
Great Lakes Tuesday, with the warm conveyor lifting into western New
York. The day starts out dry, but the strength of the low level
inflow will be efficient in transporting moisture into western New
York by Tuesday afternoon, supporting increasing rain chances west
of the Finger Lakes. Continued warm advection will send temperatures
well into the 50s, with 60s possible along the lake plains.

Associated cold front held upstream during the day Tuesday will
surge into the region later Tuesday night, supporting a round of
showers. Overall, the 00Z model suite struggling to bring the
surface based instability axis into western New York, but wouldn`t
completely rule out a rumble of thunder along the cold frontal
boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A deep trough will be centered across the central US Wednesday. A
low-level jet will be exiting the North Country early Wednesday with
isolated to scattered showers possible. There is good agreement that
a cold front will move across the forecast area with showers
developing, especially east of the Genesee Valley Wednesday. There
could be a second round of showers across far western Ny if the
front aligns with peak heating. Showers will likely end across
western NY Wednesday night with showers potentially lingering east
of Lake Ontario into Thursday.

High pressure will extend into eastern Great Lakes region into
Friday. Mostly dry conditions will continue into the start of the
weekend. Temperatures will start out above normal Wednesday then
become seasonable for late March Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery continue to nicely depict
lake effect clouds south of both Lakes Ontario and Erie impacting
both KROC and KJHW with high end MVFR/low VFR CIGS. These decks may
hang around through daybreak or even into a portion of this morning,
and possibly yield a few scattered light flurries. Otherwise, VFR
flight conditions expected elsewhere through the remainder of the
overnight.

Drier air and strong March sunshine will break up any lingering lake
induced clouds south of the lakes through the morning hours with
widespread VFR conditions expected right through tonight.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...VFR but with the chance of showers far west late.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR CIGS with showers likely.
Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Stronger northerlies will continue to come down through the
remainder of the overnight across western Lake Ontario, with
moderate chop along the entire southern shore of the Lake through
this morning. Slightly weaker winds with some chop found on Lake
Erie. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the western end
of Lake Ontario and the Lower Niagara River until 5 AM this morning.

For today, high pressure passing to the north will generate gentle
to moderate northerlies across the Lower Great Lakes in the morning
with the winds veering to northeast on Lake Erie in the afternoon
and becoming light and variable across the open waters of Lake
Ontario.

Moderate east to southeast winds will be in place for tonight and
Monday, although winds will freshen across Lake Ontario. Given the
easterly flow though, the choppiest conditions will be found in
Canadian waters. However, with more of a strengthening easterly
component to the wind found across central and western Lake Ontario,
Small Craft conditions will be possible by Monday from near Sodus
Bay westward.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
         LOZ030-042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...HSK/JM/RSH


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