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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091553
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Apr 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF Tehuantepec GALE WARNING...

The next gap wind event across the Tehunatepec region is expected
by Thu morning as a ridge builds across the eastern slopes of
the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving
across the Gulf of Mexico. Wind are forecast to increase to minimal
gale force by Thu morning. Then, winds will further increase to
35 to 40 kt Thu night into Fri, with seas building to 14 or 16
ft. Large seas generated from this strong gap wind event will
spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or
greater reaching as far west as 104W on Fri night. Marine
interests transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri
night into Sat should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event,
and take the necessary action to avoid this hazardous marine
conditions over the affected waters. Winds are forecast to
diminish below gale force by Sat night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more
information on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from northern Colombia, westward to 08N90W to
04N110W. The ITCZ continues to 04N110W to 04N125W to beyond
03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be
found from 04N to 10N between 79W and 110W, and within about 150
nm N of the ITCZ between 120W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning has been issue for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Please, see the Special Features section for more details.

High pressure is the main feature controlling the wind regime
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Moderate
to fresh NW to N winds are over most of the offshore waters of
Baja California with fresh NW winds near Cabo San Lucas. Seas
with these winds are 8 to 9 ft based on altimeter data. In the
Gulf of California, gentle to moderate NW winds are S of 27N
while moderate to fresh NW winds are seen N of 30N. Light to
gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 4 ft with the
strongest winds and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. Light to gentle west to
northwest winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore
waters with seas of 4 to 6 ft due to a mixture of long- period
southwest and northwest swell. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the waters
surrounding the Revillagigedo Islands due to a prolonged long-
period northwest swell moving through those waters.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California for the next few days. Winds offshore Baja California
will diminish to mostly moderate speeds today. The northwest
swell producing seas of 8 to 9 ft north of 25N will slowly
subside today into this evening. In the Gulf of California, winds
will generally become light and variable on Thu throughout. On
Fri, winds over the northern part of the Gulf are forecast to
become fresh in speeds, south to southwest in direction, then
increase to fresh to strong speeds Fri night prior to the
approach of a cold front. Gentle to locally moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere with slight to moderate seas. The next gale
force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to
begin Thu morning. It will likely persist through Sat. Seas are
expected to peak to around 16 ft with this upcoming event.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region and
west from there to near 90W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with these
winds. Gentle to moderate north winds are south of the Gulf of
Panama west of 79W while light variable winds are east of 79W.
Generally light to gentle southwest to west winds are elsewhere.
Seas are 4 to 6 ft due to a long-period south to southwest swell,
except for slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft over the waters
between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters
of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Winds and seas may be higher
in and near this activity as it is expected to stay active today
through late on Wed. Hazy conditions observed along and just
offshore northern Central America, northward of northern Nicaragua
are due to mostly smoke produced by agricultural fires.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong east winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo region will diminish to moderate speeds early this
afternoon and to gentle to moderate speeds through Thu. Light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas due to a long-period
south to southwest swell are expected elsewhere through Thu.
Looking ahead, expect increasing winds to fresh to strong
speeds, with seas building to 8 to 10 ft in the Papagayo region
early on Fri. These winds may reach near gale-force late Fri
night into early Sat while at the same time fresh northerly
winds start in the Gulf of Panama with seas likely building up
to 7 ft. Abundant moisture drawn in by a very moist and unstable
southerly wind flow is expected to persist across the offshore
waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia supporting the
development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
over those waters.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1030 mb that is analyzed well to the northeast
of the Hawaiian Islands is the main feature influencing the
weather pattern over the waters north of the ITCZ and west of
about 110W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and
relatively lower pressure found in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
sustaining a rather large area of fresh to strong trade winds
mainly from about from 08N to 18N west of about 130W. Seas are 8
to 12 ft with these winds based on altimeter satellite data
passes and on a couple of ship observations. Mostly fresh northeast
winds along with moderate seas are present elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will shift
eastward through Thu as it weakens with the approach of a cold
front that is expected to push south into the far northwest part
of the area. This upcoming process will mean that the area of
fresh to strong trade winds confined to mainly the western
waters will diminish in areal coverage. Seas produced by these
winds will subside going into the end of the week.

$$
GR