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000
FXUS64 KFWD 171832
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
132 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tomorrow Night/

Weather Highlights:
-Isolated storms this afternoon
-Severe storms Tomorrow Afternoon

Rest of This Afternoon & Tonight:

A warm and muggy day will continue through the rest of today
thanks to the persistent southerly flow across the region.
Yesterday`s front has retreated westward, and has stalled just
west of our region. This boundary will act much like a dryline
this afternoon with significantly drier air west of the dryline
and moist conditions to the east.

Although no major forcing for ascent will be atop our region,
diurnally driven convection may develop this afternoon across the
Big Country. If they do develop, storm motion would take it to the
east/northeast into our western-most counties. For that reason,
we`ll continue to advertise a minimal potential for a thunderstorm
or two. Any strong convection will likely occur just west of our
region with a weakening trend expected as storms shift east, away
from the boundary. Storm chances will quickly dissipate after
sunset as atmospheric stability sets in.

Tonight will be fairly quiet across the region with partly cloudy
skies in place. Given the moist environment, temperatures will
likely stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the night.

Tomorrow - Tomorrow Night:

A more active weather day is expected on Thursday as the pseudo-
dryline and a cold front converge atop our region. Throughout the
morning hours, the cold front will be progressing southward into
our region, remaining precipitation free. During the afternoon,
sufficient daytime heating is expected for convection to develop.
Given the warm surface temperatures, instability will build to
3000+ J/kg, increasing the threat for severe thunderstorm
development. Severe storms would mainly contain a large hail and
damaging wind threat as they progress east/southeast along the
cold front. With instability waning after sunset, thunderstorms
will gradually lose strength later in the afternoon/early evening.

Northerly winds will ensue behind the front, remaining below 15
mph through the rest of the night. This will help cool overnight
temperatures into the lower to mid 50s along and north of I-20.
60s are most likely south of I-20.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/
/Thursday night through Tuesday/

Thunderstorms associated with a cold front on Thursday will end
from north to south through the evening. All storms will move into
Southeast Texas overnight into Friday morning. Clouds will
briefly clear behind the front but will return Friday as moisture
is drawn northward over the shallow frontal layer. A few showers
and storms may develop across parts of Northeast Texas Friday
afternoon due to the passage of a weak shortwave. Storm chances
will increase Friday night into Saturday with increasing large
scale lift associated with an approaching stronger shortwave and
isentropic ascent over the stalled frontal boundary. Off and on
showers and storms are expected Saturday and Saturday night with
all areas receiving beneficial rainfall. Precipitable water values
are not forecast to be overly high (between 1 and 1.5 inches) but
with multiple rounds of showers and storms expected, locally
heavy rainfall and some flooding will be possible. This pattern is
not typically a big severe weather producer but a few strong
storms with some small hail can`t be ruled out. Storm chances will
end Sunday afternoon with increasing subsidence behind the passing
shortwave. Brief ridging aloft will keep Monday and Tuesday rain-
free, but storm chances will likely return around the middle of
next week.

Cooler temperatures are expected Friday through the weekend due
to extensive cloud cover, rain chances and weak cold air advection
behind the cold front. Highs Friday will still be near or just
slightly below seasonal normal but Saturday and Sunday will be
much cooler with highs staying in the 60s for most locations. The
return of the sun and south winds early next week will result in a
warming trend with at or above normal temperatures by Tuesday.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR returns tonight, improvements late tomorrow
morning. VCTS has been added to account for increasing TS
potential tomorrow afternoon.

VFR is ongoing and will continue through the rest of the
afternoon into this evening. With southerly flow continuing, a
return of low ceilings is expected once again. Initially, the low
ceilings will approach KACT around 05Z, then the Dallas/Fort Worth
Metroplex closer to 09Z. Guidance keeps the ceilings within the
MVFR category through the late morning hours before VFR returns
closer to noon.

A cold front will be approaching the region in the afternoon,
with storms firing off along its leading edge. Storm timing
appears most likely 21Z and beyond, therefore, it has only been
included to the extended portion of the DFW TAF. Storms should be
fairly quick to exit the region with only a few hours of
thunderstorm potential. Additional refinements to storm timing can
be expected in subsequent TAF cycles.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  88  59  72  59 /  10  50  40  10  60
Waco                71  87  63  77  62 /  10  30  40   5  40
Paris               67  84  58  70  54 /  10  20  30  20  60
Denton              68  87  55  70  54 /   5  50  20  10  60
McKinney            69  86  58  71  56 /   5  50  40  10  60
Dallas              71  89  61  73  59 /  10  50  50  10  60
Terrell             68  85  60  74  58 /  10  30  50  10  60
Corsicana           71  87  63  79  63 /  10  20  30   5  40
Temple              70  87  63  78  63 /  10  30  40   5  40
Mineral Wells       68  89  57  70  56 /   5  40  10  10  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$