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FXUS64 KHUN 172001
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
301 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Light rain has continued to shift north and east this afternoon,
resulting in a mostly dry radar except for a few areas in
southern middle TN. Expect this trend to continue thanks to a
blanket of convection closer to the Gulf Coast that has helped
block us from better moisture return. With the stronger forcing to
our south, believe much of the overnight period will be dry until
around sunrise when forcing increases along an upper level
shortwave. Will keep a 20-30% chance for showers and a low chance
for thunderstorms in through 7am, but believe the main concern
overnight will be whether or not fog is able to develop. Hi-res
guidance has been pretty persistent in showing mostly cloudy skies
overnight, but light winds and wet grounds will support at least
patchy fog development. Will continue to monitor this into the
overnight hours. Otherwise, overnight lows will drop to the low to
mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Shower/storm chances will be highest during the day on Saturday as
the upper trough axis pivots across the local area. SPC has placed
the entire area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for strong to
severe storms on Saturday, mainly in the afternoon. There may be a
few hours where there is a favorable overlap between instability
and shear, although the best shear will be displaced to our south.
Marginally severe wind and hail will be the primary concern with
these storms with CAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, but still a
low confidence forecast depending on the nature of convection
father to our south that could block us from better moisture
advection, much like today. Something to be aware of, especially
if spending time outdoors. Afternoon highs will reach the upper
70s/lower 80s with light westerly/northwesterly winds.

This activity should come to an end from west to east tomorrow
night. Dense fog may become a threat once again tomorrow night
with light winds and clearing skies. Upper ridging will settle
over the local area for the remainder of the short term forecast,
resulting in dry and warm conditions. Highs will reach the mid to
upper 80s Sunday and Monday with overnight lows in the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Dry and warm conditions will continue into Tuesday, and thanks to a
flow rounding a surface ridge along the east coast. After a mild
night with lows in the lower 60s, highs on Monday should rise into
the mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. This trend should continue on
Tuesday with highs nearing 90 degrees in a few places. Lows in the
mid 60s Mon night should range in the upper 60s to near 70 Tue night.

A storm system forecast to form over the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains over the weekend will head to the NE, reaching the Great
Lakes on Wednesday. A cold front trailing south of it will move
across the area on Wed. Moisture convergence and lift preceding it
will return medium chances (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms
beginning Tue night. Unsettled weather with scattered showers and
thunderstorms will remain in the forecast into Thursday. Overall
storm strength should remain "general" with a risk of strong outflow
wind gusts, heavy downpours, and sudden and/or frequent lightning.
Even with more clouds and rain chances, high temperatures on Wed/Thu
should range in the mid/upper 80s, and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Lowered ceilings and visibilities are forecast to persist through
the TAF period, causing periods of MVFR to IFR conditions.
Overnight into Saturday morning, periods of LIFR conditions are
possible as low ceilings move into the TN Valley with continued
chances of showers.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...HC