822
FXUS64 KHUN 120525 AAA
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1225 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 945 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

A weak/dry cold front continues to move southeast into northern
Alabama at this hour. A mix of some mid and high cloud cover has
formed along this front, mainly east of the I-65 corridor. Models
increase cloud cover overnight along and behind this frontal
boundary, which may stall over the area before moving back to the
north of the area on Sunday. Still mainly expecting clear skies
much of the rest of this evening, but after 3 or 4 AM expect partly
to mostly cloudy conditions to develop over the area. Mainly in
response to some isentropic lift and an increase in moisture
advection aloft.

Winds have dropped off and area calm in many areas, except near
the front primarily. Some drier air will move into portions of
the area behind the front (lower 40 to 50 degree dewpoints in
Tennessee), however that may mainly be in southern middle Tennessee
and into NE Alabama, before the front moves back to the northeast.
Enough cloud cover and the lower dewpoints should keep fog from
forming overnight, despite the light winds expected in the morning.
Lows were warmed up tad based on guidance trends and since the
front looks more like it will stall and then move back to the
northeast. Lows dropping into the upper 40s to around 56 degrees
looks reasonable. Lowest temperatures will like be in southern
middle Tennessee and portions of NE Alabama.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Will maintain a dry forecast through Sunday as upper ridging
builds in from our west and low pressure centers over central KS.
This will result in a warmer day on Mother`s Day with afternoon
highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s with increasing clouds late in
the afternoon and light and variable winds. Will remain dry
through most of the night Sunday, but low rain chances will
increase from SW to NE during the early morning hours as synoptic
lift and better moisture arrive in the area. Rain chances will be
maximized Monday afternoon and overnight as a cold front nears and
pushes through the area, and for now it looks like the best
chances for strong to severe storms will miss our area to the
southwest. With that being said, still expect to see periods of
heavy rain and thunderstorms so this system bears watching. Clouds
and heavy rain will keep temperatures lower on Monday, with highs
limited to the lower 70s with little change in temps overnight,
only falling to the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

An unsettled weather pattern will continue as we go into the
week. An upper level area of low pressure now over the southern
Great Basin will move eastward over the next few days, and should
reach the Mid Mississippi River Valley on Tue. Upper troughing
accompanying this system will place the area under a SW-NE upper
flow. A surface low with this system and a cold front nearing from
the west will continue a trend of scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms across the Tennessee Valley. Overall storm
strength continues to look "general" with a usual potential for
gusty winds, heavy downpours and sudden lightning strikes. The
aformentioned cold front should move across the area Tue night
with shower activity ending from west to east. The parent low
however will move slower to the east. Its location over the Ohio
Valley, and residual moisture over our eastern areas will keep
lower end rain chances in on Wed, mainly east of I-65 and over our
more NE areas.

A brief break in shower activity is forecast Wed night as the
first low finally exits more to the north and east. More showers
and storm chances return on Thu as yet another system nears from
the west. Output from the deterministic models was becoming more
uncertain (comparing the precip fields with one another), so
trended more with the blends. They were suggesting the best rain
chances Thu night into Fri. This system looked similar overall
strength wise with the earlier system, with mainly non-severe
storms anticipated.

High temperatures on Tue and Wed should range in the upper 70s. A
bit warmer on Thu with highs in the lower 80s, and around 80 Fri.
Lows Tue night should range in the lower 60s, and a bit cooler
Wed night in the upper 50s, then back into the lower 60s Thu
night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Expecting VFR conditions with no rain to continue at the
terminals through this evening. Increasing upper level cloud cover
is anticipated for the next handful of hours, but especially by
late this afternoon and this evening. Winds will also continue to
be light and variable through today, then become more
southeasterly at around 5 knots or less this evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...26