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000
FXUS61 KILN 201922
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
322 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will lead to dry but cool conditions through the
weekend. Temperatures will moderate somewhat by Monday before a
chance of showers returns for Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure will remain centered over the central
Plains tonight with a weak ridge axis extending east from it
into the Ohio Valley. Some spotty diurnal cu have developed
this afternoon, especially along and north of I-70. These
clouds should dissipate toward sunset with skies then mostly
clear heading into this evening. Gusty winds this afternoon
will also taper off this evening. This, combined with the clear
skies and low dewpoints, will likely allow for a pretty fast
temperature dropoff through the late evening hours.

Low level moisture will begin to increase from the northwest
overnight and this may allow for some stratocumulus to advect
into our northwest later tonight. Meanwhile, mid and high level
clouds off to our southwest will also begin to advect into our
area tonight. This will all lead to an overall increase in
clouds through the night across our area and this should help
steady out temperatures. Overnight lows will be mostly in the
mid to upper 30s.

This all makes for a tricky frost forecast overnight. Frost
formation will be dependent on how fast the mid/high clouds
move in and just how thick they are. Given the uncertainty,
have opted to go with a frost advisory across our far northeast
for tonight as this is where we should stay clear the longest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A mid/upper level trough axis will shift southeast across our
area through Sunday afternoon. With the 850 mb cold pool still
centered over us Sunday morning and some lingering low level
moisture, will allow for some diurnal cu to develop through mid
to late morning and then linger some of this into the
afternoon. These clouds should then dissipate through late
afternoon get on the backside of the upper level trough and
start to lose the diurnal heating. Temperatures will remain
seasonably cool with highs on Sunday only in the mid to
possibly upper 50s. Clearing skies and light winds will lead to
frost potential across much of the area Sunday night as
temperatures drop into the the low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Period begins dry on Monday with high pressure draped across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. An intensifying low pressure and cold
front will bring showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, while winds
outside of storms may gust over 30 knots. High pressure returns with
dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms
may accompany a warm front on Friday. A better chance for showers
and storms may exist on Saturday as a warm and unstable regime takes
hold south of low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes.

Temperatures range normal to slightly below normal for much of the
period, with highs generally in the 60s Monday through Friday. Being
situated in the warm sector Saturday should allow above normal highs
in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Isolated to scattered diurnal cu have developed across our
northern areas early this afternoon. Much of this will
dissipate with sunset but in moist northwest flow off of Lake
Michigan, some additional VFR stratocumulus will likely advect
in later tonight, possibly affecting KDAY. Meanwhile, some mid
and high level moisture in association with some mid level
energy, will stream in from the southwest late tonight. With
some lingering low level moisture and some cold air aloft,
scattered to broken cu will develop through late morning and
persist into the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible
Tuesday. Gusty winds to 30 knots possible on Tuesday. MVFR
ceilings may linger into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ026-045-046-
     055-056-065-074.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...JGL