103
FXUS65 KLKN 100625
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1125 PM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1117 PM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025

* Warming trend Friday through Tuesday

* Near triple digit heat in the valleys of Northern and Central
  Nevada each afternoon Sunday through Tuesday

* Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon Sunday
  through Tuesday

&&


.UPDATE...
Issued at 1117 PM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025

The Red Flag Warnings that were in effect until 11 PM this evening
have expired. Winds are diminishing in most locations, though some
locations continue to experience wind gusts of around 30 mph.
Wind gusts to 25 mph are expected across much of FWZs 469 and 470
into the overnight hours, however RH`s in these areas are already
around 25% and expected to continue to improve up to around 50%
before sunrise Thursday.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1228 PM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A trough of low pressure will move
eastward across Northern Nevada this evening. Ahead of this trough
of low pressure, southwest to west wind gusts near 35 mph are
anticipated in most of Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon.
Zonal flow aloft will prevail Thursday. An area of high pressure
over Southern California will build northward Friday into early
next week, resulting in a warming trend. High temperatures each
afternoon Sunday through Tuesday will be six to eight degrees
above normal for this time of year, resulting in a moderate risk
for heat-related illnesses. Although heat events like this are
relatively common and happen many times a year, heat-related
impacts are possible for those new to the area if simple
precautions are not taken. Here are probabilities of triple digit
heat for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada on
Monday, July 14th, 2025:

Winnemucca - 95%
Battle Mountain - 85%
Crescent Valley - 80%
Elko - 75%
Gabbs - 65%
Carlin - 60%
West Wendover - 60%
Denio - 45%
Tonopah - 45%
Spring Creek - 15%

Dry weather will persist for the foreseeable future.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
High forecast confidence regarding a critical risk of wildfires in
the majority of Northern and Central Nevada today. High forecast
confidence in a warming trend Friday through Tuesday. High
forecast confidence regarding near triple digit heat in the
valleys of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon Sunday
through Tuesday. High forecast confidence in a moderate risk for
heat-related illnesses each afternoon Sunday through Tuesday. No
deviations from the NBM model output.

&&


.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

VFR conditions forecast for all sites through Friday. Mostly clear
today, however winds will be gusty out of the SW at 15kt to 25kt
with gusts up to 35kt possible through 06Z Thursday morning.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag Warnings in effect this afternoon and evening for zones
424 425 427 438 469 and 470. Critical fire weather conditions of
low surface RH values below 10% along with gusty southwest winds
of 15 to 25mph with gusts up to 40mph are likely in the warned
areas. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are
possible for zones 437 and 426, although RH will drop below 10%, W
to SW winds will not be as strong across these areas as speeds of
10 to 20mph with gusts up to 30mph are possible.

Upper level trough will push through the Pacific NW Today through
Thursday, and this trough interaction with a strong upper level
ridge to the SE is what is driving the strong winds, and is
responsible for the critical fire weather conditions. As the
trough passes a dry cold front will push trough northern Nevada,
bringing slightly cooler temperatures, and lighter winds for
Thursday and Friday. High pressure will build back in over the
great basin Friday and will result in lighter winds continuing
into the weekend. However as the ridge builds into next week a
warming trend will see day time high temperatures climb from the
mid 80s to mid 90s Thursday to the upper 90s to upper 100s by the
start of next week.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...96