908
FXUS64 KLUB 101727
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1227 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Easterly surface winds in the wake of a cold front will bring much
cooler temperatures today. Highs generally in the low-to-mid 70s
will be seen area wide. Higher cloud cover is expected to persist
through much of the day as an upper ridge axis moves over the
region. The pattern begins to change later this evening as an upper
low that has been stalled over southern Nevada for some time will
finally start to slowly move eastward. This combined with a moist
surface southeasterly flow bringing in Gulf moisture will lead to
increased rain chances moving west to east into Saturday morning.
Greater chances will occur in the afternoon. This is discussed
further in the long term section.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The forecast for this weekend remains on track to be unseasonably
cool and wet but finer details are lacking in clarity. The rex block
that has been persistent over the western CONUS into the eastern
Pacific will continue to break down on Saturday forcing a closed low
to slowly move east roughly along the 37th parallel. Large scale
lift generally looks lacking on Saturday with the upper low still
located around the four-corners region. Lift will primarily be
driven by moist isentropic ascent on the 295-305K layers. The latest
NAM guidance depicts a short wave approaching the area on Saturday
but seems to be suffering from some sort of feedback issue
generating much more precipitation than other models. A surface
ridge will be nearly centered over the area on Saturday leading to
easterly low level winds. Low stratus hanging around for the entire
day may lead to temperatures struggling to even push 70 degrees.
Warm air advection on Saturday will give rise to elevated
instability but is expected to be quite weak with values progged on
the order of less than 500 J/kg.

Precipitation and convective chances on Sunday look to be increased
over Saturday as the upper low approaches closer to the region
growing large scale ascent. Stronger jet level winds will move
overhead, especially early on Sunday coinciding with peak isentropic
lift on Sunday morning. Elevated parcels will gain instability
during the overnight hours leading into Sunday morning increasing
the chances of thunder within the mostly rain shower activity.
Models have been trending increasingly progressive with this upper
trough somewhat altering the forecast for Sunday. Therefore, the
highest precipitation chances will be off the caprock. A dryline
will attempt to mix eastward on Sunday afternoon possibly bringing
clearing skies on the caprock. Overall, there is a small chance of
flooding rains this weekend with precipitable water values generally
in excess of 150 percent of normal. However, confidence in heavy
rain is low given the weaker lift expected. A cold front will follow
late Sunday into early Monday as the upper trough slides eastward
across Oklahoma/Kansas. The next short wave trough will load up in
the southwestern US on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing severe weather
chances back mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Continued VFR through Saturday morning. Ceilings will lower to
around 4-5k feet AGL toward daybreak at LBB and PVW as numerous
SHRA with some TS develop, although this looks to struggle to make
it to CDS as stronger lift stays south. After 18Z Saturday, there
are increasing chances for widespread MVFR ceilings with additional
SHRA/TS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...93