National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KMHX 111046
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
646 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system and associated cold front will
impact Eastern NC today and tonight. High pressure then
builds into the area from the south this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 645 AM Thu...An upper level shortwave, and an associated
surface low, will lift NE from the TN Valley towards the eastern
Great Lakes today and tonight. East of the low, an effective
warm front will lift steadily north through the Carolinas. A
pre-frontal trough is then forecast to push east through ENC
during the late- afternoon/evening hours, followed by a cold
frontal passage tonight. This system will bring multiple hazards
to eastern NC today and tonight: widespread showers with
isolated svr wx threat, gusty winds and coastal impacts.

Widespread showers and iso tstms currently over FL/GA/SC will
grad lift NE today, grad overspreading the area later this
morning and this afternoon. Light returns on radar this morning
slowly blossoming, but having a tough time overcoming dry
air...with only sprinkles thus far. Warmer temps aloft will
tend to keep mid-level lapse rates on the low side (<6 C/km),
but strong low- level moisture advection should allow a plume of
weak instability to develop north ahead of the advancing pre-
frontal trough. Within this plume, probabilistic guidance gives
a 25-35% chance of SBCAPE >750 J/kg. Deep layer shear of
50-60kt+ is forecast, which sets up a classic high shear/low
CAPE scenario. It still appears that the most likely scenario is
for widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms to move through
Eastern NC this afternoon and evening as strong lift overlaps
with a deepening layer of moisture. In this scenario, convection
would tend to be more shallow in nature, but given strong flow
aloft, could support occasional gusts of 50+ mph thanks to
enhanced mixing. SPC currently has our entire area in a
"Marginal" risk of severe weather. While less likely, if
instability ends up higher, and if the early rain is less
widespread, there could be an opportunity for surface-based
convection and a higher risk of severe weather (ie. 60+ mph
gusts and a few tornadoes). Also of note, a well- defined MCV is
currently moving through GA/FL early this morning, which could
potentially limit convective chances as it moves off the SE
coast later today.

Outside of the thunderstorm risk, a tightening pressure
gradient east of the advancing pre-frontal trough will support
strengthening southerly winds, with non-thunderstorm gusts of
35-40+ mph. These strong winds will continue into the early
evening hours, then lessen as the gradient relaxes in the wake
of the pre-frontal trough and associated convection. Strong
winds will lead to coastal impacts, see CF section below for
details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Thu...Low pressure will continue to lift into the
eastern Great Lakes tonight with attendant cold front pushing
offshore after midnight. Widespread showers and embedded tstms
ongoing this evening, with the threat pushing off the coast
after midnight. Iso strong to severe storm threat will continue
through the eve. Winds will grad ease late as pressure grad
relaxes. Coastal impacts expected to peak tonight with strong
southerly winds, see section below for details.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Thurs... Cold front offshore will continue to quickly
push away from the region on Fri with a second reinforcing cold
front sweeping through ENC Fri afternoon and evening. High
pressure then builds in from the south and west over the weekend
and settles in off the SE Coast early next week bringing fair
weather to ENC from Sat into late next week.

Friday... Upper troughing over the Ohio River Valley at the
start of the period will gradually shift E`wards eventually
pushing offshore late Fri night while at the same time a s/w
will round the base of this upper trough Fri afternoon. At the
surface, cold front that had impacted the area on Thurs will be
offshore to start the day Fri leaving behind some gusty SW`rly
winds Fri morning. As the s/w makes its way across ENC Fri
afternoon a reinforcing cold front will quickly sweep E`wards
across ENC. This will increase the winds further keeping SW`rly
winds at 15-20 mph with gusts in excess of 25-30 mph Fri
afternoon. This front will also bring some widely scattered
showers with it. Kept SChc PoP`s in the forecast for much of the
area Fri afternoon, though as noted previously a little
skeptical of how much moisture makes its way over the mountains
and to the area. Will monitor trends and adjust the forecast if
needed. Highs continue to remain rather warm Fri with the
SW`rly flow in place getting into the upper 60s to mid 70s
everywhere while lows Fri night get down into the upper 40s to
low 50s.

Sat through midweek next week... Upper trough eventually pushes away
from the Mid-Atlantic on Sat and Sun with more zonal flow
overspreading the Carolinas this weekend before upper ridging builds
across the Eastern CONUS. A weak s/w trough may track across
the Carolinas Sun night into Mon morning before ridging
establishes itself. At the surface, high pressure builds in from
the south and west on Sat and Sun before setting up in the
Sargasso Sea off the SE Coast early next week. The pressure
gradient will remain tight between the building high pressure
and departing fronts and strong low well off to the north and
east on Sat allowing W`rly downslope winds to remain rather
gusty with wind gusts expected to be in the 20-25 mph range Sat
afternoon. Given the downslope flow dewpoints will likely lower
some and with temps in the 70s across inland areas, RH`s will
drop into the 25-30% range across the Coastal Plain. The
combination of stronger winds and low RH`s could result in some
elevated fire danger and if confidence in this threat increases
further a fire weather section of the AFD may become necessary.

As a second s/w trough moves across ENC Sun night into Mon, dry
cold front approaches and outside of some elevated SW`rly winds
and additional cloud cover Sun night little in the way of
impacts will be felt from this front. Afterwards high pressure
ridging remains in place promoting dry conditions and a gradual
warming trend through the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 645 AM Thu...VFR conditions currently across the
terminals, with widespread sub-VFR conditions expected to
develop after 12z this morning. Strong southerly wind gusts
expected today, peaking this afternoon and evening. Expect cigs
to lower to MVFR across western terminals shortly after daybreak
and spread to the coast through the morning with widely
scattered showers possible. Heavier showers will move in late
morning through the afternoon bringing periods of IFR or lower
conditions. Winds gusts to around 25 kt will develop shortly
after day break with gusts 30-35 kt this afternoon and evening.
Heavier showers and sct tstms will have the potential to bring
gusts around 40-50 kt as well. The strong Sly winds will bring
cross-wind concerns at ISO and EWN runway 4R/22L. Conditions
will grad improve from west to east after 3z, then returning to
VFR towards daybreak Fri morning.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thurs... Expect primarily VFR conditions through the
TAF period as a cold front will be well offshore by Fri morning
while high pressure gradually builds in from the south and west
through the weekend and into early next week. The main concern
will be the gusty winds on Fri and Sat with SW to W`rly winds
potentially gusting in excess of 25 kts Fri afternoon and 20+
kts on Sat afternoon. Much lighter winds are then forecast from
Sun onwards.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 645 AM Thu...Latest obs show moderate S winds 10-20 kt
with seas 3-5 ft. Expect conditions to deteriorate quickly
today, with strong winds and dangerous seas developing.
Strengthening low pressure will continue to lift NNE toward the
Great Lakes today, pushing attendant cold front eastward through
the Carolinas. Gale Warnings continue for the coastal waters,
sounds and rivers early this evening into the first part of
tonight. Winds will increase to 20-25 kt by this afternoon,
peaking at 25-35 kt with gusts 35-40 kt this evening and
tonight. The cold front will move through late tonight and early
Friday morning with gradient grad relaxing and winds
diminishing to 20-25 kt. Seas will build to 5-10 ft this
afternoon, then peak at 8-15 ft tonight. Widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon into the first
part of tonight. Showers and storms could mix down stronger
winds.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thurs... Cold front will be well offshore to start
the period with a second reinforcing cold front quickly moving
across our waters Fri afternoon and evening bringing a SChc for
some showers/storms. Winds will be SW`rly at 20-25 kts with
gusts in excess of 30 kts across our coastal waters Fri morning
but quickly ease closer to 15-20 kts with gusts near 25 kts at
times Fri afternoon which should briefly end our SCA`s across
some of the inland rivers and sounds. As we get into Fri night
and Sat, winds veer to a westerly direction behind the second
front and increase once again with sustained winds around 20-25
kts and gusts up near 30 kts at times. Some minor funneling
could occur across the Pamlico River and Albemarle Sound given
wind direction but either way looks like small craft conditions
would be possible once again. Winds finally ease Sat evening
down to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts ending the SCA`s
across our inland waters. 6-9 ft seas north of Hatteras and 7-10
ft seas south of Hatteras will gradually lower Fri night into
Sat as the winds slowly ease with widespread 4-7 ft seas found
across all waters by Sat morning. Seas then fall below SCA
criteria Sat afternoon. Better boating conditions remain in
place through Sun before an incoming surface trough tightens the
gradient Sun night bringing the potential for more SCA
conditions before quieter weather finally returns to the marine
zones early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 315 AM Thu...Coastal Flood and High Surf Advisories
remain in effect for potential inundation 1-2 ft agl, rough surf
and beach erosion, this evening into Fri. Strong southerly
winds will peak this evening, around the time of high tide, will
build seas and could lead to periods of ocean overwash and
beach erosion for southern facing oceanside locales. The
potential for soundside flooding exists for areas along the
northern half of Pamlico Sound ahead of and just behind the
front as well with winds becoming swrly just after midnight.
Minor flooding could linger along the soundside Outer Banks as
well as oceanside Ocracoke into Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Friday for NCZ047-081-195-196-199.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Friday
     for NCZ195-196.
     High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for NCZ199.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Friday for NCZ203-205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ204.
     High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX