000
FXUS65 KREV 230852
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
152 AM PDT Tue Apr 23 2024


.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and more active weather arrives today and persists through
the end of the week into the weekend. The potential for showers and
thunderstorms returns each day through the end of the week. Be aware
of rapidly changing conditions if recreating outdoors through the
end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Over the next few days, the large scale pattern is in transition
from a ridge to a trough. An upper level wave ahead of the main
trough is projected to swing across northern CA through the day and
kick off showers and thunderstorms along its path. Blended guidance
and HREF in good alignment with 25-40% chances of showers and
thunderstorms from the Tahoe Basin northward into Lassen and Washoe
counties. There may be a shower or two that kicks off into western
NV through the afternoon, but the best ingredients (moisture,
instability, and forcing) for stronger, more organized storms will
be from the Tahoe Basin northward into NE CA. Showers will kick off
earlier than yesterday with DESI indicating some showers as early as
10AM near the Tahoe Basin. If outdoors this week, keep an eye out
for rapidly changing conditions along with potential for
thunder/lightning, gusty outflow winds, and rain/pellet showers.

Late this evening into early Wednesday morning, another upper level
wave sweeps across Mono and Mineral counties producing scattered
to widespread showers. Plan on seeing some light snow accumulation
for elevations above 9000 feet. Precipitation will continue
across the Sierra and western NV as the main trough traverses
eastward across southern CA and NV through Thursday afternoon.

Thursday afternoon into Friday another trough (from the Pac NW)
brings the next round of precipitation and an increase in the winds
for the region. While other days this week will be typically breezy,
Thursday will have the strongest wind gust potential as the upper
level winds briefly align with the surface winds to produce enhanced
west to southwest winds that will abruptly shift to northerly winds
late Friday. The trough on Friday will bring snow levels a touch
lower with potential for snow down to around 6-7k feet from Thursday
night into early Saturday morning. Most of the heavier precipitation
will wrap up Saturday morning with only lingering showers Saturday
and Sunday.

Temperatures will be quite a bit colder late this week and into the
weekend, with high temps only reaching around 60-65 degrees on
Friday for the lower valleys. While temperatures are projected to
warm slowly over the weekend, it will still be quite a bit cooler
compared to last weekend. I`ll most likely be swapping out my layers
of sunscreen for a light long sleeve and a cozy sweatshirt for the
weekend ahead.

-Edan

&&

.AVIATION...

Intermittent cloud cover early this morning from a few showers may
limit fog formation at KTRK this morning, but can`t rule out a bit
of patchy fog for a couple of hours right around sunrise. For the
rest of the terminals, generally VFR conditions are forecast through
18z today. More active weather arrives after 18z today, and it will
remain more unsettled for the rest of the week and into the start of
the weekend.

An upper level wave will kick off showers and thunderstorms from
KTVL northward to the OR border today with a 20-30% chance of a
storm impacting KTRK/KTVL/KAAT. Wednesday the shower/storm potential
shifts south with 20-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms at
KMMH and KHTH. Shower and thunderstorm potential will stick around
from Wednesday into early Saturday morning. Possible impacts due to
stronger storms include: rapid wind shifts from gusty outflow winds,
localized heavier rain/pellet showers, and lightning.

-Edan

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$