Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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034 FXUS63 KSGF 051700 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1200 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rainfall will occur today with localized flooding possible. No severe weather expected. - Expect strong to severe thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday, especially for areas west of Highway 65. SPC highlights a Slight Risk (2/5) for this area. Primary hazard is damaging wind gusts. - Unsettled weather will persist through mid-week. Additional chances for strong to severe thunderstorms. Forecast rainfall during this period between 1 to 3 inches may support a localized flooding threat. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Today: Another MCS is pushing through Oklahoma this morning. Today`s rainfall will be more widespread, though there will be periodic breaks in the rain. Expect rain to arrive around 8-10 AM over southwest Missouri and continue to push south to north, as well as west to east throughout the day. Severe threat is low today, any thunderstorms that do develop should stay sub- severe. Heavy rainfall is a concern today, and localized flooding may occur especially in areas that are already saturated. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with mostly cloudy skies. Some breaks in the clouds could occur as rain starts to dissipate this evening. Monday: Monday morning through the afternoon will be mostly dry, outside of an isolated shower or thunderstorm (10-30%). As the upper level trough digs further south into the region, an associated cold front will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will increase in coverage from west to east after 8 PM. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Monday-Wednesday: A strong negatively tilted upper level trough moves across the Central Plains into early next week. This feature may be slow to progress, bringing several days of unsettled weather. This includes the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms and localized heavy rainfall. Daily highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Slight risk (2/5) extends eastward to the Highway 65 corridor in our area. All severe hazards remain plausible with this setup, though damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. As activity shifts further east through Monday night into early Tuesday morning, expect intensity to decrease as the environment becomes less favorable. Monday Night: Recent trends continue to highlight the most favorable environment for severe thunderstorms sets up along and west of Interstate 49 corridor. Forecast soundings show around 2000-3000 J/kg in the vicinity of deep layer shear around 35 to 40 knots. However, as the night goes on, both the upper level and the low level jet start ramping up around midnight over southwestern Missouri. Values for 0-3 km shear start to also increase into the 40-50 knot range. Therefore, this set up is leaning towards more of a line segment/QLCS storm mode. This also matches up with the SPC outlook which has a 15-20% chance of severe winds over our area. Tuesday: Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather on Tuesday. Overnight activity will be ongoing in the morning hours. A secondary low pressure system and associated warm front lift north back through the area on Tuesday. There is remaining uncertainty on the potential for destabilization into Tuesday afternoon/evening across the eastern portions of the area, though the environment would support the threat for additional strong to severe thunderstorms. Tuesday`s risk remains conditional at this time. Additional strong to severe thunderstorm chances persist into Wednesday. Thursday-Saturday: By Thursday, ensemble guidance begins to diverge a bit. A cold front slides through the area Thursday into Friday with additional low shower and thunderstorm chances (10-20%) along the passage. Then, we finally get a break from the rain! Friday and Saturday look mostly dry at this time with highs cooling off into the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Periods of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to overspread the TAF sites through this afternoon. Expect MVFR to IFR flight conditions, with some instances of LIFR. Ceilings vary between 500 to 1500 feet, with visibilities reduced to 2 to 4 miles within precipitation. Rain will slowly exit from west to east through the evening into tonight, with IFR flight conditions persisting overnight into Monday morning. Flight conditions begin to improve late in the TAF period. Winds light at 5 to 10 knots out of the east/northeast through tonight, turning out of the south/southeast into Monday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Over the past 7-10 days, most of the Ozarks has seen significant rainfall with some locations receiving as much as a foot of rain (Vernon and Bourbon(KS) Counties). With multiple rounds of showers and storms forecast over the next 7 days, localized flooding and additional rises on area rivers and streams will be possible. Current forecasts are from from 1 to 3 inches with local higher amounts of rainfall through the period. Several area rivers remain elevated or above flood stage and these will be monitored through the period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Soria LONG TERM...Soria AVIATION...Perez HYDROLOGY...Hatch