Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 212315

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
715 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

...Adding on a few more degrees each day...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Split flow upper level pattern well
estabilished across NOAM, with active southern branch spawning
widespread rains across the southern Plains, and the northern branch
well removed to our north. Area between is awfully quiet, including
our weather here in northern Michigan. Elongated and slow moving
high pressure at the surface, with strong April solar insolation
gradually modifying the low level thermal fields. The result,
northern Michigan temperatures continue to trend slowly upward, with
many areas running well into the 50s this afternoon.

Simply not much change heading through the remainder of the weekend,
with high pressure firmly in control at the surface, all-the-while
that split flow upper level regime keeps the active weather well
removed to our north and south.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature trends only.

Details: Extremely dry airmass through the column will bring mostly
clear/sunny skies tonight and Sunday. Dewpoints in the teens and
single digits, combined with remnant snow pack and calm winds,
should once again result in a rapid drop in temperatures by later
this evening. Statistical guidance continues to run too warm, a
result of a much too moist model-derived boundary layer. Will
continue to slice a few degrees off even the coldest guidance, with
widespread lows well down into the 20s away from the big waters. Of
course, would not be a surprise to see a few locations drop into the
upper teens (talk about a diurnal swing). Just the opposite story
for high temperatures, with the very dry airmass supporting a much
quicker and intense temperature response than guidance would
suggest. Will add a few degrees to statistical progs, supporting
highs well into the 50s, and even a few locations topping 60
degrees. Weak pressure gradient once supports the development of
afternoon lake breezes, reversing the morning upward temperature
trend and keeping those shoreline communities several degrees
colder. For sure, much more typical spring conditions for northern


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

...Above Normal Temperatures...

Primary Forecast Concern...None.

Surface and upper level ridging move slowly off to our east Monday
into Monday night. On Tuesday, a cutoff upper level low currently
across the Four Corners region approaches from the southwest while a
cold front and associated upper trough approach from the northwest.
Northern Michigan is stuck in between these two systems so only low
chance pops for rain showers will be in the forecast. Meanwhile,
above normal temperatures for the first time this entire month are
expected. Highs of well into the 50s to the middle 60s expected.
Lows Sunday night ranging from the middle 20s to the middle 30s and
the milder middle 30s to lower 40s Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Models are still consistent with upper level lows and weak surface
low pressure systems around the Great Lakes region through the
extended...bringing periodic chances of rain and/or snow, but no
real accumulations expected at this time. That time of the year
where rain will occur in the daytime during diurnal heating and snow
or a rain/snow mix during the nighttime hours. Highs in the mid 50s
to low 60s and lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 714 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

VFR conditions and light winds expected throughout the forecast


Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Light winds to continue into the start of the upcoming week
as high pressure remains over the area. Expect the development of
onshore winds during the afternoon hours as lake breezes develop.




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