Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 201004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
404 AM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Weak shortwave/cold front moving through eastern Montana this
morning. A few snow showers with the system over the southeast
zones but should clear out by mid morning. Low cloud and fog
along the hi-line should also be clearing out today.

Upper ridge begins building into the state tonight. Clear skies
should result in development of a shallow inversion tonight, and
with the recent snow melt, expect another round of radiation fog.

Warming through midweek with the ridge building will accelerate
melting of the snow pack. Ice breakup on area rivers and streams
is also possible, along with ice jam flooding as ice begins to

Upper trof moving into the northern Rockies during the weekend
will bring cold and wet weather back to Montana for the end of the
week. First push will be a warm front lifting across the region
Thursday night into Friday. System has slowed slightly which now
puts the best chance for precipitation over the eastern zones
Friday morning. Temperature profiles are also warmer which would
result in a mostly rain event, with snow accumulations limited to
the far northeast corner of the state.

Uncertainty continues regarding precipitation chances for the
remainder of the weekend. Would expect some precipitation with the
upper trof moving through the region but models have not settled
on any specifics. Ebert


MVFR to VFR conditions with low clouds and fog as low pressure
system moves through eastern Montana this morning. Clearing is
expected through the day, and with snow melt, will likely lead to
the redevelopment of fog tonight under a shallow inversion.



The first hydrology concerns of the season have arrived.

The Musselshell River has begun to break up and ice is now flowing
in the Roundup area. Ice jams have been reported on March 19th
located both upstream and downstream of Roundup.

A Flood Watch for ice jams along the portion of the Musselshell
River between Petroleum and Garfield Counties remains in effect to
raise awareness. Warming temperatures through mid-week will likely
increase area snow melt and aid a more widespread ice break up.

Another location to watch is the Missouri River at Landusky,
which has been oscillating above and below action stage.



Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Garfield...Petroleum.


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