Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 250355

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1155 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

The AVIATION section has been updated below.


Issued at 422 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Snow and rain will end this evening as low pressure exits the area.
After a dry day Sunday, a front will bring rain chances to the area
next week. Well below normal temperatures early will give way to
above normal temperatures by mid-week.


.NEAR TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 1012 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

With the last of the snow moving off to the southeast, pulled the
Winter Storm Warning and Advisory and hour early. Sent an Special
Weather Statement to warn of the snow covered and or very slick
untreated roads. Will also update the Weather Story and Hazardous
Weather Outlook. The 24 hour snowfall total at the National Weather
Service office ended up number 2 all-time with 10.2 inches.

Previous discussion follows...

Issued at 635 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Raised snow amounts in baroclinic zone to around 10 inches per
latest reports, radar trends and High Resolution Rapid Refresh. It
looks as the snowfall today at the National Weather Service office
will be the second most for a 24 hour period in March. The record is
12.1 inches on March 19, 1906. This looks out of reach with the snow
expected to wind down over the city in the next couple of hours.

Issued at 422 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

For the most part, the forecast is in decent shape. A narrow band of
heavy snow has set up across the warning area, with rain to the
southwest. The far northeast has ended up drier thanks to dry low
levels. Thus am not making huge changes.

Frontogenetical forcing continues across the warning area. This is
producing impressive snowfall rates this afternoon for some areas,
including the Indy area. This means Indy finally gets a real
snowfall for the season. Have upped snowfall totals some where
needed, and may need to bump up more if this band lasts longer than
expected. In the advisory area, lower amounts of snow will fall with
weaker forcing.

Not too far to the southwest, precipitation is rain, with embedded
thunderstorms. There may be some mixing with snow this evening as
colder air works in, but still not expecting accumulation.

To the far north and northeast, the drier air at the surface won
out. Little if any snow has fallen there. Radar shows echoes already
diminishing in the northeast, so lowered PoPs there.

Like was discussed the past couple of days, there was a big bust
potential for some areas. Some areas under the heavy band will end
up with higher amounts than forecast, and some areas in the drier
air will end up below forecast. Such is life with these systems.
Also, as previously noted, some counties will end up with low
amounts at one end and high amounts at the other end.

Precipitation will end for the most part this evening as forcing
weakens. Will go dry most areas by 06Z. Clouds will decrease as
drier air flows in. This plus snowcover for some areas will lead to
a cold night in the 20s.


.SHORT TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday/
Issued at 422 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

High pressure and upper ridging will bring dry conditions Sunday and
Sunday night.

Monday into Tuesday the area will get in southwest flow aloft, and a
surface front will set up to the west of the area. Moisture will
increase with the southwest flow, and there will be impulses moving
through the flow as well.

The result will be gradually warming air and increasing rain
chances, with most areas having likely or higher PoPs by Monday


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night Through Saturday/...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Ensembles indicate a mean upper trough is expected to develop over
the middle of country by the middle to late portions of next week.

Ensembles continue to suggest near daily chances of precipitation as
potential exits for embedded disturbances to periodically ripple
through the mean trough. Will continue with PoPs throughout the
extended, although at this point it appears the most energetic wave,
and resultant highest PoPs, will be passing through Tuesday night.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 250600Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1155 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

High confidence flying conditions will be VFR through the period per
the SREF and GFS LAMP.

Winds will be east and northeast 10 to 15 knots with gusts 25 knots
at times before 02z. Also, expect low level wind shear through 10z-





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