395
FXUS62 KTAE 141006
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
606 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Similar to yesterday, the main concerns today will be the heat and
the chance of a stronger storm or two this afternoon into early this
evening. Upper level ridging will remain in place across the region
today with light northerly flow. This is expected to allow
temperatures to reach into the mid to upper 90s across most inland
areas today. Dewpoints will mix out somewhat, but blending in some
of the lower dewpoint guidance still yields heat index values near
108F across our Florida counties and the first row of Georgia
counties. We`ll go with a heat advisory in those areas for this
afternoon, similar to Sunday. Sunday`s heat index verification saw
14 reliable stations hit at least a 108F heat index within the
advisory area: KFPY, KCTY, KECP, K2J9, SURF1, SNDF1, SAMF1, MAIF1,
CARF1, MONTI, MAYFL, PNCFL, DFSFL, and KVLD.

In terms of thunderstorms chances, the best chance is expected to
come this afternoon into early this evening, associated with a
westward moving line of convection along the I-75 corridor. DCAPE
values are at least moderate today, so these storms could be on the
strong to severe side with gusty winds if they develop.

For tonight, conditions will remain quite muggy with overnight lows
in the mid 70s for most inland locations and upper 70s to near 80
along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

One more hot day is in the forecast Tuesday. Daily shower and
thunderstorm chances remain with the highest chances anticipated
Wednesday and Thursday, especially for the southern half of our
area, as a trough or low passes south of us in the Gulf. Hotter
weather returns to end the work week and next week as a ridge of
high pressure builds back over the region.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues monitor an area of
disturbed weather off the east coast of Florida. The trough
associated with this cluster of showers and storms will mosey
westward over the coming days, moving across the Florida Peninsula
later today into Tuesday before emerging into the eastern Gulf
sometime on Tuesday. It is here that the trough has a low (30%)
chance of developing into something tropical over the next 7 days,
and a 10% chance in the next 48 hours, as it trudges west-northwest
across the Gulf. There`s still a wide range of possibilities from
the trough never closing off, so it remains a disorganized area of
showers/storms in the Gulf to developing into something tropical and
impacting the northern Gulf Coast sometime mid-week. Like I said, a
wide range of possibilities.

Even if the trough doesn`t develop into anything tropical, it`ll
send a surge of tropical moisture over the region Tuesday afternoon
for our eastern areas and the rest of the region Wednesday, keeping
rain chances high and daytime highs on the cooler side of normal for
mid-July. It`ll also increase winds over the Gulf waters and
increase the surf and rip current risk for the second half of the
week and perhaps the weekend.

Following the trough in the Gulf, an H5 ridge builds in from the
east and causes temperatures to rebound back above normal, or the
middle 90s, for the weekend. Lingering tropical moisture should lead
to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along the
seabreeze Friday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail this morning. The best chance
of thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening is expected
to be associated with a westward moving area of convection, first
near VLD then perhaps making it as far west as ABY and TLH this
evening. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered afternoon convection is
expected. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Light to moderate northwesterly winds today become more northerly to
northeasterly during the day Tuesday as a trough of low pressure
moves into the Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds develop Tuesday night
into Wednesday and lingers over the northeastern Gulf through at
least Thursday. The trough has a low chance, or 30 percent chance,
of tropical development as it moves over the northeastern Gulf,
making the forecast more subject to change.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will be in place for the
next several days with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal outside of gusty
and erratic winds near thunderstorms along with lightning and
pockets of heavy rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected again today
and Tuesday. The highest concentration is forecast along the
seabreeze and other leftover mesoscale boundaries. Some storms will
produce locally heavy rain that could lead to isolated instances of
flash flooding, especially in areas with poor drainage.

A trough/weak area of low pressure will move across the Florida
Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf sometime Tuesday. Moisture from
this system starts to ramp up from east to west in our area on
Tuesday and is expected to linger through at least Thursday. This
could better organize rain into training bands of showers and
storms, especially near the coast; this would further increase
concern for flash flooding Wednesday and Thursday.

High pressure building over the region will lead to a more summer-
like pattern with daily afternoon showers and storms. Intense rain
rates from these storms could lead to nuisance flooding.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   97  77  97  75 /  50  50  80  30
Panama City   94  79  97  77 /  30  20  70  60
Dothan        97  77  99  75 /  20  10  50  30
Albany        97  76  98  75 /  20  50  60  20
Valdosta      98  74  97  75 /  50  30  70  20
Cross City    97  73  94  73 /  70  40  90  50
Apalachicola  93  79  92  76 /  40  40  80  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM
     EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-
     112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ155>161.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Reese