Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 221348
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
948 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.UPDATE...

No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary. A
moist airmass remains in place across the area with the 12z KTAE
sounding sampling a precipitable water value of 1.72 inches. A weak
upper level vort max still exists just north of the area, and with
daytime heating, expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall will be the
main threat.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [643 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

500mb low across southeast Alabama will continue to weaken today.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms can already be noted on radar
this morning. Unfortunately, have seen additional training of these
storms this morning but so far the rainfall amounts have been
manageable. With daytime heating, expect shower and thunderstorm
activity to increase for the afternoon (80-80% PoPs) with the better
chances inland. The main threat for today will continue to be the
flood threat given the potential for heavy rain. While isolated
flash flooding is possible today, given the more sporadic nature of
the heavy rain and training, will hold off on any flash flood
watches for now. Highs will reach into the low to mid 80s this
afternoon.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

In the upper levels a ridge will be over the Central U.S. and a
trough will develop in the Caribbean. At the surface a weak pressure
gradient will be over the region with a surface low developing near
Western Cuba. POPs will remain elevated as the influx of tropical
moisture continues. POPs will be 40 to 70 percent during the daytime
with thunderstorms likely. At night POPs will remain elevated at 30
to 60 percent. Skies will remain mostly cloudy. Highs will be in the
mid to upper 80s. Lows will be near 70.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

In the upper levels a low will form over the Gulf on Friday. At the
surface a low will move into the Gulf by Friday. NHC has a 40
percent chance for tropical cyclone development on this low. This
low could become a depression or weak tropical storm by Friday or
Saturday. The forecast track is still uncertain the ECMWF has it
going toward the Mississippi Coast and the GFS has it going into the
Central Florida Gulf Coast. Regardless of development or potential
track, this low will result in a big influx of tropical moisture.
POPs will be elevated through early next week. There will be heavy
rain at times. Flooding is a possibility. Highs will be in the 80s.
Lows will be near 70.


.AVIATION [Through 12Z Wednesday]...

LIFR to MVFR conditions will continue to remain at the TAF sites
over the next few hours with improvement expected mid to late
morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are already affecting
the TAF sites this morning with greater coverage expected this
afternoon.


.MARINE...

Light southeasterly winds will increase on Friday as a low develops
in the Gulf. Winds will be moderate around 15 to 20 knots this
holiday weekend. Three to four foot seas can be expected this
weekend. A wet pattern will be in place through early next week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

With the wet pattern continuing into the weekend, Red Flag Warning
conditions will not be met for the next few days.


.HYDROLOGY...

There is growing confidence for heavy rain through this weekend.

A wet pattern will be in place through the weekend. Three to seven
inches of rain is predicted over the next seven days with isolated
higher amounts likely. There is uncertainty with the rain total
forecast due to uncertainty with the track of the low developing in
the Gulf. Regardless of the track an influx of tropical moisture is
expected to produce heavy rain at times through the weekend. River
levels are slowly starting to rise. Most local rivers are still
below action stage. Rain totals will increase this weekend and river
levels will be rising. River gauges will need to be closely
monitored. Flash flooding is possible especially later this week.
Localized nuisance flooding of low-lying areas and ponding on
roadways is likely through the weekend.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   84  69  87  70  88 /  60  30  50  30  50
Panama City   82  72  84  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  40
Dothan        82  69  85  70  87 /  80  60  70  30  60
Albany        85  69  86  70  87 /  70  50  70  40  60
Valdosta      85  67  87  69  87 /  70  40  60  40  50
Cross City    85  67  87  69  87 /  60  40  40  30  40
Apalachicola  82  73  83  73  84 /  40  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM...McD
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...McD


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