Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 191622

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
922 AM MST Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Stronger winds return today into Friday as a storm
system moves north of the area. Cooler temperatures and a few
showers possible near the mountains northeast of Tucson Friday.
Warmer this weekend into early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning showed partly to
mostly cloudy conditions from Tucson east. Visually looking at the
cloud bases from the office, noticed small virga shafts but
nothing making it to the ground with dewpoints ranging from the
single digits to the lower 20s. Made a quick update to the
forecast to show more cloud cover this morning. Otherwise the main
story for today will be wind and critical fire weather
conditions. See fire weather section for additional details. Wind
speeds, for the most part areawide, will remain below advisory
criteria. However can`t rule out localized spots hitting criteria
for an hour or two this afternoon, especially up in the White
Mountains. The increase in winds today are associated with an
approaching strong upper level trof. This feature will continue to
move east across the desert southwest over the 36 hours. Outside
of a few rain/snow showers across the White Mountains Friday
night, this system is a dry one for SE AZ. Much cooler Friday
versus today. More on this and the remainder of the 7-day forecast
in the afternoon discussion.


.AVIATION...Valid through 20/12Z.
SCT clouds between 15-20k ft then clearing out this evening. SFC
winds below 10 kts through early morning. Then increasing Thursday
during the late morning, continuing into the afternoon and
evening SWLY 20-25 kts gusting to 35 kts. Highest speeds will
likely be at KDUG. Winds will start to diminish between 20/04Z and
20/06Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning is in effect today from 11
am to 8 pm MST for Fire Weather Zones 150, 151, 152, and 153. The
combination of strong and gusty southwest to west winds, low
humidity, and a high to very high fire danger will create critical
fire weather conditions.

Southwesterly 20-ft winds will ramp up through the day peaking in
the afternoon 20-30 mph with gusts to 40-45 mph. As the weather
system exits east on Friday, relative humidities increase slightly
but strong winds still remain along the Arizona/New Mexico border.
This could produce small isolated areas of near critical fire
conditions, albeit not widespread enough to justify the issuance of
any products. Winds then become predominantly light and terrain
driven over the weekend and beyond.

Expect dry conditions for the next seven days with the exception of
the White Mountains where a slight chance for thunderstorms and snow
showers exists Friday night into Saturday morning.


 Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ150>153.




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