Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
187 FXUS64 KHUN 161621 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 934 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Patchy fog has dissipated and is being replaced by a cumulus field across the area. Weak high pressure at the surface and an upper level shortwave ridge will shift east today. The rest of today should be quiet weatherwise with temperatures warming into the lower to middle 80s this afternoon with light wind flow expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 402 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Tonight begins a shift in the weather pattern that will continue through Saturday, as the upper ridge gives way to an incoming shortwave trough from the west, along with more subtle shortwaves moving over the Deep South and up into the Tennessee Valley. Model guidance has come into better agreement with the timing and evolution of this trough through the region in recent runs as well. A surface low pressure system is also expected to develop and traverse central to southern Plains tonight, continuing east over the Tennessee Valley by Saturday morning (our local area in the warm sector), then move over the eastern seaboard Sunday morning. Overall, low to medium chances (20-55%) of showers and storms are forecast to begin late tonight and increase to high (80-90%) on Friday. Medium to high chances (60-80%) then continue Friday night through Saturday before tapering off Saturday evening (10-30%). The main questions with this forecast lie in the potential for strong to severe storm development Friday into Friday night. Guidance continues to suggest that an MCS will progress over the Louisiana bootheel to southern Mississippi and southern Alabama late tonight into early Friday. How this feature may modify the environment farther north will be telling for strong to severe storm potential later in the day. Will it cut off moisture transport and resultant instability? Will an outflow from it help initiate convection later in the afternoon? Some of this may not be able to be answered until closer to the time with mesoscale analyses. However, looking at model guidance, most side with the scenario that instability will likely be cut off in the early afternoon, with mainly showers and perhaps general thunderstorms (sub- severe) the theme. The other question is whether the atmosphere will be able to "recharge" for storms to blossom in the late afternoon/evening as the aforementioned cold front moves through. If it can, there will be ample instability (along with shear and helicity) for storms to tap into and possibly become strong to severe. Additionally, models indicate the presence an 850 mb jet moving over Louisiana Friday morning, then central Mississippi in the early afternoon, and into Alabama in the late afternoon/evening; however, there is disagreement if this will make it into northern Alabama or stay south of us. Overall, confidence in severe weather occurrence is low. But, if storms do get going, then they could bring damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. The tornado threat is non-zero but we have very low confidence in the occurrence of tornadoes at this time. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked all of our northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee counties in a Marginal Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather Friday and Friday night. Showers and storms will continue through the day on Saturday, but are expected to be sub-severe. Model instability and bulk shear values are sufficient for storm development, but not extraordinary for severe weather. Lastly, for temperatures, highs Friday will likely only reach the mid to upper 70s due to the coverage of clouds and precipitation. As shower/storm chances continue into Saturday, highs are forecast to be a touch warmer, in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Lows will then generally remain in the lower to mid 60s each night. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 402 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 A system that is expected to bring unsettled weather to close out this week, by Sunday should be moving eastward over the Mid Atlantic. Most of the showers activity should be east of the region in the morning. But heating of residual moisture and resultant instability could bring isolated to scattered (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms. This convection should it occur should remain east of the Interstate 65 corridor, and in the afternoon. Otherwise despite weak cold air advection, high temperatures to start the week should warm into the mid 80s. Shower activity should end Sun evening as high pressure building in from the west becomes more of an influence on the sensible weather. Low temperatures should cool into the lower 60s. The start of the workweek/Monday should feature mostly sunny skies, with highs rising into the upper 80s. Similar if not a tad warmer on Tuesday with highs warming to around 90 in few places. Lows Mon/Tue night should range in the mid/upper 60s. Surface high pressure should build east of the Tennessee Valley during Mon/Tue, returning a southerly flow over the area. Another system forming over the northern Great Plains will head towards the Great Lakes. A cold front trailing the parent low over southern Canada will move across the area on Wednesday. Thus have returned shower and thunderstorm chances to the Valley, beginning late Tue night and continuing on Wed. With clouds and rain chances, high temperatures should be in the mid 80s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 VFR flight weather conditions are forecast through most of tonight. High based -SHRA and isolated TSRA will arrive by 09-10Z. The -SHRA will become more widespread by 12-14Z, when ceilings are expected to drop below 010agl (IFR). The probability of TS is below 30%, so have left out of both KHSV and KMSL TAFs at this time. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...17