000
ACUS03 KWNS 260729
SWODY3
SPC AC 260728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
Thursday and Thursday night for the northeast Gulf Coast and coastal
Carolinas.

...Southeast...
A strong mid-level low/trough will slowly move eastward across the
lower MS Valley into the TN Valley during the period.  An intense
belt of 90+ kt 500-mb flow will quickly move through the base of the
trough during the day and nose into the eastern Carolinas overnight.
An occluded surface low will meander eastward from the Ozarks into
the OH Valley as a cold front sweeps east across eastern AL/GA
during the day as a maritime warm front advances northward and
inland into the Carolina coastal plain.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning
over the northern Gulf Coast with an isolated severe risk probably
maintained from the overnight.  Although mid-level lapse rates will
likely be marginal, rich boundary-layer moisture (upper 60s to
low-mid 70s surface dewpoints) will contribute to weak to moderate
buoyancy.  An extensive cluster of convection over the Gulf will
likely spread into the west coast of the FL Peninsula during the
day.  The wind profile will intensify as a ribbon of 50+ kt 700-mb
flow extends from near Tampa Bay north-northeastward into southern
SC during the afternoon to early evening.  Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are possible.  During the evening, it is expected that
surface-based instability, via the northward-penetrating warm
sector, will develop into coastal SC and southern NC.  Damaging
gusts and a tornado or two may accompany the more intense storms as
this activity spreads northeast during the overnight into NC.

..Smith.. 10/26/2021

$$