095
FXUS64 KLCH 262328
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
628 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Another day of showers and storms ongoing across the area in this
multiday flooding event. Widely isolated showers are covering a
majority of the CWA with some heavier showers across central and
south central Louisiana.

Aloft, the trough is still over the central CONUS with one ridge
over the SW and another over the Gulf. Over the period, we will
see an expansions of the upper ridges over the CWA. At the surface
we have an area of high pressure off to the NE of here, with
southerly to southeasterly flow prevailing. While not nearly as
high as days previous, PWATs are still high and additional showers
and storms will continue. Higher amounts are expected near the
coast going into tomorrow, hence the expansion of the Flood
Watch.

Rainfall totals and overall coverage will decrease through the
period with temperatures slightly warming.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

A relatively drier period continues to set up through much of the
upcoming week as upper level ridging builds across much of the
northern gulf coast. Isolated, diurnally driven convection will
still develop each afternoon with the highest probabilities within
the highest moisture profiles across lower Acadiana. As has been
the case in previous forecast packages, opted to undercut NBM PoPs
Monday through Wednesday as they seem to significantly exceed the
forecast environment.

With the ridge suppressing both convection and cloud cover,
afternoon highs will climb back into the low to mid 90s bringing an
end to the brief reprieve from the summer heat. Consistent weak high
pressure over the Northeastern gulf coast will maintain steady,
light southerly winds through much of the week keeping dewpoints in
the upper 70s which will push apparent temperatures into the 100-105
range each afternoon.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Heavy showers have generally ended over southwest Louisiana. VCSH
and lowered ceilings were included at all sites for the next
several hours as there are some light showers and observed CIGs
less than 1000 feet still in the region.

After sundown, remnant ground moisture will cause some ceilings to
remain around 500 feet and will allow for some ground fog to form.
As seen in the last several days, the next round of showers
should develop after midnight.

Upper level low pressure center should begin lifting out during
the day Friday; marking the beginning of the end for this heavy
downpour pattern.

Winds are expected to continue their semi-variable and light
nature through the period.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Light southerly winds and low seas will prevail through the
period. There will be continued high chances for daily showers
and thunderstorms through the weekend. Rain chances should become
more normal next week, with scattered convection likely developing
each morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  71  86  72 /  60  50  80  20
LCH  83  74  86  76 /  90  60  90  40
LFT  84  74  90  77 /  90  40  90  20
BPT  84  73  86  76 /  90  70  90  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for LAZ073-074.

TX...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for TXZ515-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...11