Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 051642
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1142 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.UPDATE...
Vsbl satellite shows mostly clr skies acrs the area attm, but a
cirrus shield associated with convection acrs NE TX is poised to
spread acrs the area. This convection is associated with shortwave
energy traveling SE out of OK this morning. While the main complex
of storms is gradually weakening, outflow from the storms is
already triggering showers south of the main complex. An axis of
deeper moisture, with PWATs 1.9 to 2.0 inches acrs E/SE TX and
W/SW LA, along with daytime heating, will support continued
development of convection this aftn with the best potential acrs
mainly the western half of the area. The area remains within a
MRGL risk for severe weather, mainly for the isolated threat of
damaging wind gusts.

Made some minor tweaks to PoPs for this aftn, as well as hourly
T/Td grids, but otherwise fcst is on track today.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020/

DISCUSSION...
05/12Z TAF PACKAGE

AVIATION...
All terminals will experience VFR conditions, however at about
18Z for KAEX and about 21Z for all other terminals an increase in
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected. This activity will
be set off due to daytime heating along with a shortwave projected
to move through later today. It is expected to last into the
evening, however the lack of heating after sunset will cause this
activity to be reduced.

Stigger 87

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Continued trough across the Eastern U.S. with stationary front
draped across the forecast area this morning.

Today another shortwave currently riding down the backside of the
trough will combine with daytime heating and boundaries across the
region to produce at least scattered thunderstorms this afternoon
and CAM guidance indicates the need to increase POPs a bit for the
western portions of the forecast area. SPC has also indicated a
marginal risk of severe thunderstorms exists across this area as
well.

While thunderstorms will diminish this evening CAMs still
indicated the possibility of showers and thunderstorms again late
tonight with additional shortwave energy.

Friday the pattern begins to get back to a more summertime pattern
with increasing moisture as southerlies become established once
again with isolated to scattered after thunderstorms each day
through the remainder of the forecast.

Temperatures will be near Climo for early to mid August.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  71  93  71 /  20   0  20   0
LCH  92  75  92  75 /  40  40  40   0
LFT  93  72  93  73 /  20   0  20   0
BPT  92  76  92  76 /  40  60  30   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...24


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