Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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412 FXUS64 KLCH 012016 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 316 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024 A quasistationary frontal boundary extends across central Louisiana back into southeast Texas this afternoon providing a weak focus for scattered convection. Thus far, the vast majority of the precip has remained along and east of the Atchafalaya basin, but expect some scattered additional development across southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana over the next few hours with activity waning around sunset. High res guidance does hold on to some isolated convection across central Louisiana in the vicinity of the boundary into the late evening. Winds are expected to fall below five knots overnight which, when combined with rain from the past couple of days and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, should favor the development of at least patchy fog along with low ceilings. Any fog that develops should dissipate by 9 AM, but skies will be slow to clear. The stalled frontal boundary will lift North out of the area Saturday leaving only isolated PoPs across southeast Texas where a better plume of moisture will exist. A developing low over the western plains will increase southeasterly winds to 10-15 knots by Saturday afternoon with winds of 15-20 knots expected Sunday. Latest guidance keeps coastal surge values below advisory criteria Saturday but reaching criteria Sunday. Some sites are even showing surge reaching coastal flood warning criteria. Will continue to monitor this, but expect minor coastal flooding early next week. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024 The active pattern continues into the start of the longterm period as a deepening trof swoops into south central Texas. Deep southern fetch off of the Gulf will bring about gusty winds and moisture transport over top the region on Monday. A front in association with this trof will begin moving near the region Monday, with broad upscale lift ahead of the front causing showers to develop in the early morning hours. By Tuesday morning, upper jet feature will be moving into the east central Plains states, taking with it much of the frontal forcing. This should offset heaviest rainfall totals as the front moves into central Louisiana. However, due to deep moisture and boundary, expect a wash-out all day. No severe weather is expected with the boundary at this time. Due to forcing lifting to the north, the boundary lingers into Wednesday bringing about light scattered showers. High pressure attempts to develop over the central Gulf, keeping most rain chances out of the forecast to end the period. However, due to lingering weakness in north Louisiana and distance from the high pressure center, the forecast should support 15 percent PoPs through the late week. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024 A nearly stationary frontal boundary across north Louisiana will continue to provide a weak focus for scattered shower and thunderstorm development through the afternoon and early evening. Activity should begin to wane by around sunset but may linger into the late evening in the vicinity of AEX. Ceilings should gradually lower through the evening likely falling to IFR by early Saturday morning. Patchy fog will also be a possibility although the latest guidance keeps this relatively light. Any fog that develops should dissipate by 14Z although ceilings will be slow to lift. VFR conditions are expected to prevail by late Saturday morning. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024 A cold front will stall well to the north and retreat Friday and Saturday. Ample moisture will allow isolated to scattered showers and storms for the rest of the period, however they are expected to gradually diminish into the weekend. Increasing onshore winds and seas will develop Saturday through Monday as an area of low pressure develops across the western plains. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Sunday and Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 66 82 62 82 / 40 10 0 30 LCH 69 82 68 82 / 30 10 0 30 LFT 69 83 69 85 / 40 10 0 10 BPT 71 82 71 83 / 30 30 10 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...66