Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 202332

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
632 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018



High pressure extending across much of the gulf of Mexico along
with upper level ridging across the south central U.S. remains in
control across the area and will continue to do so through the TAF
period. Thus, VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals along
with generally light southwesterly winds.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018/

Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows the large and sprawling
upper ridge extending from the Four Corners Region to western LA.
At the sfc, high pres is situated over the northern Gulf,
resulting in light to modest southwesterly winds acrs the area.
Limited cloud cover is seen on satellite due to the drier and
more subsident airmass associated with the ridge, although
considerable amounts of dust/haze are imparting a rather milky
appearance to the sky. Meanwhile, extremely hot temperatures
continue with middle/upper 90s noted acrs the region, and heat
index values between 102 and 107.


Abnormally hot and dry conditions will remain entrenched acrs the
area through the weekend as the ridge aloft builds eastward.
Daytime temperatures are expected to climb into the middle 90s,
with highs near the century mark acrs the northern zones.
Dewpoints will continue to run near 70 acrs the north to the
middle 70s south during the aftn hours, and this will result in
heat index values between 105 and 110. Thus, a Heat Advisory has
been issued for Saturday. Subsidence associated with the ridge
will keep precip chcs near minimum, with any convection expected
to stay east of the area.


By Sunday upper lvl ridge ridge will begin to slowly erode from
east to west as an upr lvl low develops over the Ohio valley and
drops south into Georgia by Monday afternoon. As a result look for
the heat ridge to amply into the Rockies but the region will
remain under the strength of the ridge. Mostly sunny skies to
continue... this will allow for temperatures to jump quickly
during the late morning hours and the heat index to reach the
century mark before the noon hour. Tuesday looks to be more of
the same as the persistent pattern holds clouds in check and
therefore no chance for any rains for the region. Wednesday will
finally see some clouds over south-central Louisiana and a chance
for isolated storms.

Thursday the upper lvl low is expected into the north-central
gulf area with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
during the afternoon hours. Chances for storms continue on Friday
as the upper level moves further west into coastal Texas. It is
during this period time period that aftn temps will finally begin
to moderate. Remember to take precautions while outside... by
taking frequent breaks and drinking fluids.


Sfc high pres will hold across the central Gulf of Mexico with
light to moderate west to southwest flow through the weekend.
Winds will strengthen slightly by Sunday and Monday as a weak
front approaches from the north, which may result in west winds
increasing near exercise caution criteria. This weak front may
sag into the coastal waters Tuesday, allowing for somewhat
variable winds.



AEX  77  99  77 100 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  79  95  79  96 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  79  98  78  98 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  78  95  78  96 /   0   0   0  10


LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-041>045-

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ027>033-

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-215-216-

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ180-201-215-



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