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000
FXUS64 KLCH 091728
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1228 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

No changes needed to the forecast at this time. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. A better chance for
showers and thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon that will bring a
potential for severe weather.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Mid-level ridging noses into the region and will act to suppress
convection while daytime highs reach into the lower and middle
90s today. Although convection will be suppressed, isolated
showers/storms are expected along the sea breeze and bndry
interaction. Any activity will diminish in the evening.

On Saturday, heights fall as a disturbance tracks through the
region. This will increase mid and upper level flow while moderate
instability develops during the afternoon and into the evening.
There remains some uncertainty, but it appears strong to severe
thunderstorms will develop along the sea breeze bndry as well as
across the ArkLaTex region by afternoon. High res cams show one
or more clusters/MCSs moving into the CWA from the west/northwest.
Confidence for severe weather is highest north of I-10, but the
entire area is primarily in a Slight Risk. Strong damaging winds
and marginally severe hail will be the main threats. Storms look
to weaken or push offshore through the evening. Daytime highs will
be a couple degrees cooler, but still in the lower 90s.

Sunday will commence the drying trend across the region as POPs
rapidly disappear. Maybe an isolated showers/storm is possible
across central LA, but the majority of the area should remain dry
as mid level heights rise. Daytime highs will rise back into the
middle 90s for many locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

A hot and dry pattern will set up through the long term period with
little day to day changes expected. At the surface, a weak boundary
will be meandering over CENLA at the start of the week, while
surface high pressure will be situated over the SErn US. This will
result in a moderate onshore flow, allowing moisture to pool
overhead. Aloft, the forecast area will be located between troughing
over the Ohio River Valley and ridging over Mexico at the start of
the week. Ridging will then gradually expand a bit north and
eastward through the period as the trough slides east.

Small rain chances on Monday will gradually become non existent by
the mid week as ridging expanding overhead and suppresses any
convection. At the same time, low level moisture will continue to
increase resulting in hot and humid conditions. Temperatures will
warm a bit each day, with highs in the mid 90s expected on Mon/Tues
creeping up into the mid to upper 90s through the second half of the
week. By the end of the period, we will likely be approaching Heat
Advisory criteria at several spots (mainly inland).

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Light winds and mainly VFR conditions are expected through the
period. Main issue will be a few showers and thunderstorms
developing later this afternoon, diminishing by early evening.
With the probability of activity moving over a terminal on the
low side, will just go with VCTS or VCSH at terminals after 09/20z
through 10/02z.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 438 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Isolated showers and storms are currently pushing away from
offshore water, but additional development will be possible later
this morning. Overall and outside of any storms, winds will be
8-13 kts from the southwest and west with under 3 feet waves
today. A drying trend is expected this weekend and into next week
with moderate onshore flow from the southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  95  70 /  20  10  50  20
LCH  92  73  90  74 /  10  10  30  10
LFT  94  74  94  74 /  30  10  30  10
BPT  94  73  93  74 /  10   0  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...07