Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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412
FXUS64 KLCH 012016
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
316 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

A quasistationary frontal boundary extends across central Louisiana
back into southeast Texas this afternoon providing a weak focus for
scattered convection. Thus far, the vast majority of the precip has
remained along and east of the Atchafalaya basin, but expect some
scattered additional development across southeast Texas and
Southwest Louisiana over the next few hours with activity waning
around sunset. High res guidance does hold on to some isolated
convection across central Louisiana in the vicinity of the boundary
into the late evening.

Winds are expected to fall below five knots overnight which, when
combined with rain from the past couple of days and dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, should favor the development of at least
patchy fog along with low ceilings. Any fog that develops should
dissipate by 9 AM, but skies will be slow to clear.

The stalled frontal boundary will lift North out of the area
Saturday leaving only isolated PoPs across southeast Texas where a
better plume of moisture will exist. A developing low over the
western plains will increase southeasterly winds to 10-15 knots by
Saturday afternoon with winds of 15-20 knots expected Sunday. Latest
guidance keeps coastal surge values below advisory criteria Saturday
but reaching criteria Sunday. Some sites are even showing surge
reaching coastal flood warning criteria. Will continue to monitor
this, but expect minor coastal flooding early next week.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

The active pattern continues into the start of the longterm period
as a deepening trof swoops into south central Texas. Deep southern
fetch off of the Gulf will bring about gusty winds and moisture
transport over top the region on Monday. A front in association
with this trof will begin moving near the region Monday, with
broad upscale lift ahead of the front causing showers to develop
in the early morning hours.

By Tuesday morning, upper jet feature will be moving into the east
central Plains states, taking with it much of the frontal forcing.
This should offset heaviest rainfall totals as the front moves
into central Louisiana. However, due to deep moisture and
boundary, expect a wash-out all day. No severe weather is expected
with the boundary at this time.

Due to forcing lifting to the north, the boundary lingers into
Wednesday bringing about light scattered showers.

High pressure attempts to develop over the central Gulf, keeping
most rain chances out of the forecast to end the period. However,
due to lingering weakness in north Louisiana and distance from the
high pressure center, the forecast should support 15 percent PoPs
through the late week.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

A nearly stationary frontal boundary across north Louisiana will
continue to provide a weak focus for scattered shower and
thunderstorm development through the afternoon and early evening.
Activity should begin to wane by around sunset but may linger into
the late evening in the vicinity of AEX. Ceilings should gradually
lower through the evening likely falling to IFR by early Saturday
morning. Patchy fog will also be a possibility although the latest
guidance keeps this relatively light. Any fog that develops should
dissipate by 14Z although ceilings will be slow to lift. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail by late Saturday morning.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2024

A cold front will stall well to the north and retreat Friday and
Saturday. Ample moisture will allow isolated to scattered showers
and storms for the rest of the period, however they are expected
to gradually diminish into the weekend. Increasing onshore winds
and seas will develop Saturday through Monday as an area of low
pressure develops across the western plains. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed Sunday and Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  82  62  82 /  40  10   0  30
LCH  69  82  68  82 /  30  10   0  30
LFT  69  83  69  85 /  40  10   0  10
BPT  71  82  71  83 /  30  30  10  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...66