Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 161252
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
752 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Have updated the pop andweather grids to reflect the widespread
rain and flooding going on in parts of south central Louisiana.
Conditions are expected to improve by this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 656 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAFS

AVIATION...
A shallow frontal boundary is sitting just offshore at this hour.
While surface are and will remain northerly through the period,
southerly flow prevails just off the surface which is acting to
push moisture over the front resulting in scattered to numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms. This precipitation is expected to
persist through the day and into the evening before slowly coming
to an end around or after 06Z. IFR ceilings will prevail through
the TAF period with periods of MVFR intermixed.

Jones

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 416 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Active weather ongoing this early am with showers and
thunderstorms across coastal sections of southwest and south
central Louisiana, extending further inland towards central
Louisiana.

The cold front is now out over the Gulf of Mexico, but it is a
very shallow front and winds are still out of the south at 3000 ft
AGL based on KLCH VAD wind profile. This setup shows an
overrunning scenario for precipitation in our region today,
slowly weakening tonight into tomorrow. Several shortwaves will
rotate around the mid and upper level high over the southeastern
US, so while we are expecting to see rain both days, it should be
of the scattered variety each day. Rain could be locally heavy at
times, as our precipitable water values are forecast to be near
two inches today and Wednesday.

Thursday looks to be the best chance to see less rain, before rain
chances increase again Friday and Saturday as another cold front
approaches and moves through the region.

MARINE...
Small craft advisories are extended to this evening, and extended
to Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake besides the coastal waters west
of Intracoastal City. Winds and seas look to continue to be above
normal beyond this afternoon, so we will likely have to extend the
small craft advisory into tonight and extend it further east as
well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  54  64  56 /  90  30  20  20
LCH  69  58  69  59 /  90  20  40  30
LFT  74  60  72  59 /  90  30  40  30
BPT  68  58  68  58 /  60  20  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ430-432-
     450-452-470-472.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...15


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