Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 211741
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1241 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper level ridging building across the region will keep
afternoon showers and thunderstorms somewhat in check although
isolated convection has already initialized and will gradually
spread northward. Away from storms BKN VFR ceilings are expected
to prevail. With high pressure centered over the east coast winds
will remain moderate out of the east southeast through the TAF
period.

Jones

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1032 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/

UPDATE...
Partly cloudy skies this morning will become more broken this
afternoon as a few isolated showers and thunderstorms develop in
the moist airmass left in the wake of tropical storm Imelda.
Expect afternoon convection to be held in check by weak ridging
aloft and weak high pressure at the surface. Only change to the
forecast this morning was to add isolated PoPs across the
southeast Texas coastal waters to account for the few showers that
have developed. Morning temperatures have been running above most
guidance, but the present forecast appears to account for this so
no changes were made.

An aerial flood warning remains in effect for all of Jefferson and
Orange counties as well as southern Hardin, Jasper and Newton
counties as extensive flooding continues across these areas as
evidenced by widespread road closures. This flood warning will
continue through the day and will likely be extended into the
evening.

Jones

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 706 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/

DISCUSSION...
For the 09/21/19 1200 UTC TAF package.

AVIATION...
VFR observed at all sites this morning amid light E/SE SFC winds
and a clear/mostly clear sky, with nocturnal streamer shower
activity waning over the past hour or so. VFR is expected to
prevail today amid a daytime cu field, though at least isolated
shower/TSTM activity is expected to develop by afternoon. Most
persistent signal for TSTM activity among hi-res guidance is near
the Acadiana terminals late this afternoon. Carried VCSH all sites
for the afternoon, but did insert a PROB30 group at KLFT/KARA for
the possibility of this late afternoon thunder. Convection should
come to an end by early to mid evening along with a clearing sky,
with VFR expected to prevail all sites for the evening and
overnight period.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 446 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/

SYNOPSIS...
Ridging has become re-established acrs the area. Aloft, the ridge
covers much of the SE CONUS, centered over AL/MS. Meanwhile, at
the sfc, high pres is centered over the Carolinas, ridging
southwest to the NW Gulf coast. Skies are mostly clr acrs the
area, while KLCH radar shows just a few small isolated showers
over the coastal waters early this morning.

This ridging pattern is expected to prevail for the next several
days.

24

DISCUSSION...
The ridge aloft over the SE CONUS will continue to build west
today. Despite this, moisture will remain sufficient to allow for
some sctd showers and storms to develop with daytime heating,
primarily along the I-10 corridor. With a little less in the way
of cloud cover, daytime temperatures should be a little warmer
than the past few days, with highs around 90 degrees this aftn.

Drier air associated with the mid/upper ridge will spread westward
into the region through the weekend, resulting in a moisture
gradient acrs the area. Precip water values on Sunday will range
fm around 1.3 inches acrs Cntl/S Cntl LA to 1.9-2.0 inches acrs
SE TX. This will also reflect the PoP distribution with only
isolated PoPs over the Acadiana Region to more sctd convection
acrs SE TX.

By early next week, the ridge aloft will begin to flatten in
response to a shortwave crossing the northern plains. A frontal
boundary will drop southward toward the area, but is expected to
stall as it reaches N LA late Monday into Tuesday. While this
front could bring a little better rain chcs to the northern part
of the state, PoPs will remain low acrs our area with abv normal
temperatures expected to continue.

Rain chcs will increase slightly by late in the week with the
approach of a stronger trough to the west.

24

MARINE...
High pressure will continue to ridge west over the coastal waters
through next week, resulting in a persistent east to southeast
flow. Exercise caution headlines are in place for the coastal
waters today into tonight due to moderate to strong gradient
winds. Winds will begin to diminish on Sunday as the pres gradient
relaxes.

A small daily chance for showers can be expected, mainly
from late night into the morning hours.

24

HYDROLOGY...
The building ridge aloft and decreasing chc for rain will aid in
recovery efforts following the devastating flooding from TD Imelda
in SE TX.

Several river points in the Neches and lower Sabine basins remain
in moderate to major flooding, although most of the rivers are
near crest or have crested. Portions of Pine Island Bayou and Cow
Bayou remain in major flood and water levels will be slowly
receding through early next week.

An areal Flood Warning remains in effect for much of lower SE TX
and this is expected to be extended through today while flooding
is ongoing. In addition, a look at the Texas and Louisiana
Department of Transportation websites indicate several roads
remain closed or impacted by flooding, including portions of
Interstate 10. Individuals are encouraged to monitor these
websites for the latest travel information.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  92  67  92 /  10  10   0  10
LCH  74  90  73  90 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  72  92  71  92 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  75  89  74  89 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ450-452-
     455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...66


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