Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 261830
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1230 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020

.DISCUSSION...
For the 1/26/20 1800 UTC TAF package.

&&

.AVIATION...
Bulk of rain in the process of departing the area and should clear
KARA within the next hour, though there still are some light
patches farther west into SW LA. In the wake of the main area of
PCPN, mainly IFR CIGS are prevailing, and this should largely
continue through this evening for most of the sites, though KBPT
is forecast to lift into MVFR for a time this afternoon and early
evening before lowering back to IFR. Latest model guidance and
numerical MOS are a bit scattershot on degree and areal extent of
VSBY reductions during the overnight period into MON morning.
Leaned the TAfs toward the more aggressive solutions given the
progged nearly saturated overnight boundary layer.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 930 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020/

UPDATE...
Large area of moderate rain with a few embedded thunderstorms
continue primarily along the I10 corridor and offshore waters.
HRRR and RAP are consistently showing rain tapering this
afternoon. Still patchy light rain and low clouds fog should be
areawide by this afternoon.

SCEC looks fine for this afternoon although believe winds will be
diminishing.  Still gusts to 20 knots will still be possible later
today.

Will update POPs and Weather grids based on radar. Max temperature
look fine but may tweak upward across southwest Louisiana.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Weather this morning is unfolding largely as expected with
widespread light to moderate showers painting the radar scope
along with the occasional lightning strike although most of those
have been confined to the coastal waters in closer proximity to
the center of the surface low which appears to be somewhere near
Galveston bay judging by observed pressure readings. This low is
progged to slide from west to east across the northern gulf today
with rain gradually ending by late this afternoon although a few
isolated light showers could linger into the evening. Light
northerly winds will develop in its wake as high pressure slides
quickly into the region, but with no distinctly drier airmass at
the surface, the wet ground and light winds will provide
favorable conditions for fog development late tonight into Monday
morning. Most short range guidance supports this.

With the high in place and weak upper ridging aloft, Monday will
be a generally quiet weather day once the fog dissipates by mid
morning. The sun is even likely to pop out a few times during the
afternoon. With no change in airmass, another round of fog
appears likely Monday night into Tuesday morning.

The next weather maker, an upper trof presently moving onshore
bringing rain to parts of northern California, is progged to dig
southeast generating a surface low across north Texas late Monday.
This disturbance will swing across the area Tuesday with
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms invading from west
to east through the day and continuing through Wednesday morning.
There is some disagreement between guidance as to how far south
the surface low will dig with the Euro and NAM both bringing the
low to the coast while the GFS and Canadian keep it considerably
further north across southern Arkansas. While widespread precip is
expected in either scenario, QPF values could be significantly
different depending on which solution eventually verifies. This
forecast will favor the southern solution as it has been depicted
more consistently over the last couple of days.

Guidance diverges further late in the week, but the general idea
continues to be another large upper trof digging across the
southern US Friday into Saturday accompanied by yet another round
of widespread showers. The day 6 and 7 forecast is a blend of the
Euro and GFS and remains low confidence.

Jones

MARINE...
Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
move across the coastal waters from west to east as an area of
low pressure moves across the northern gulf. Moderate onshore flow
will continue through this afternoon and small craft should
exercise caution. Precipitation will come to an end late this
afternoon with light offshore flow developing this evening.

Areas of fog will be possible across the nearshore coastal waters
and the coastal lakes and bays late tonight into Monday morning
which could reduce visibilities to below 1 SM. Fog will become
less widespread through the day Monday before redeveloping Monday
night into Tuesday morning.

Another surface low is forecast to move across the northern Gulf
Tuesday into Wednesday accompanied by widespread showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  47  65  42  62 /  20   0   0  40
LCH  51  67  49  65 /  10   0   0  40
LFT  52  66  47  66 /  20   0   0  20
BPT  52  67  51  66 /  10   0   0  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening for
     GMZ452-455-472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution until noon CST today for GMZ450-470.

&&

$$


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