Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 030439
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1139 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022

.DISCUSSION...

For the 07/03/2022 0600 UTC TAF package.

&&

.AVIATION...

Stable conditions look to persist overnight with mainly just some
high level clouds and VFR conditions. Exception may be at the
KAEX terminal as clearing skies may lead to some visibility
restriction due to patchy fog and some low cloudiness. A tempo
group from 10Z to 13Z will be placed in the TAF to handle this.

On Sunday, best moisture looks to be hanging around central and
south central Louisiana and these areas will have a higher
potential of seeing diurnal shower activity and will mention VCSH
at KAEX/KARA/KLFT to cover this after 03/17Z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected.

Rua

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1024 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022/

DISCUSSION...

A warm and muggy night is unfolding across the region with calm
winds and high dewpoints making the outdoors feel heavy and
oppressive. The warm and quiet trend will continue throughout the
night as high pressure has started to nudge into the area. By
tomorrow the chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
return, though the higher chances will be in central and south
central Louisiana. Guidance points to a thunderstorm complex
developing over the ArkLaMiss region in the morning will slide
southward throughout the day, spreading some showers and storms
over our eastern parishes. Because of this potential complex,
inherited grids were refreshed with the latest guidance for PoPs
and timing.

11

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022/

DISCUSSION...

For the 07/03/2022 0000 UTC TAF package.

AVIATION...

Diurnal convection has just about diminished over the forecast
area leaving behind mainly just mid to upper level clouds from
convective debris. Remainder of the evening into the overnight,
stable conditions look to persist with mainly just some high
level clouds and VFR conditions. Exception may be at the KAEX
terminal as clearing skies may lead to some visibility restriction
due to patchy fog and some low cloudiness. At this point will
have a tempo group from 0210Z/0213Z to handle this.

On Sunday, best moisture looks to be hanging around central and
south central Louisiana and these areas will have a higher
potential of seeing diurnal shower activity and will mention VCSH
at KAEX/KARA/KLFT to cover this. Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022/

SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday]...

Looking at observations across the CWA this afternoon, it has
shaped up to be fairly nice day in many locations with
temperatures currently ranging from the low 80s to low 90s. Only
scattered cloud cover and a few isolated showers remain at this
time, and this activity should taper off through the next couple
of hours. Beyond sunset, dry conditions and partly cloudy skies
can be expected, with lows falling into the mid 70s tonight.

Tomorrow, high pressure begins to build overhead from the southern
Gulf, bringing about a return to a more typical summertime pattern
that will last through much of next week. With high pressure
nearby, rain chances will be minimal tomorrow, especially across
SE TX/SW LA where the influence of high pressure will be
greatest. Further east across CENLA and Acadiana, POPs around
30-40% are on tap through the afternoon hours, as convection
shouldn`t have as hard of a time firing up through max heating
hours with less of a cap in place. Regardless, activity should be
isolated to scattered at best, and plenty of sunshine should
allow for high to warm into the low to mid 90s. For the 4th of
July, pretty much a rinse and repeat of tomorrow`s forecast, with
maybe just a slight increase in afternoon highs across some inland
locations. Otherwise, should be a nice end to the weekend/start
of the week for any holiday plans and fireworks shows across the
area.

17

LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...

The long range portion of the forecast period continues to
show general mid/upper-level ridging sitting over the region
(although a weak erly wave is noted crossing the area under the
ridge for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame), while sfc high pressure
remains centered to our east, helping maintain our low-level srly
flow off the Gulf. Forecast soundings indicate PWAT values around or
slightly above the seasonal norms for early July, while MRH values
generally run 50-70 percent. While synoptic-scale features for
convective initiation look fairly nil, mesoscale features, primarily
the afternoon sea breeze, will help fire off showers and storms
along with daytime heating, especially across lower Acadiana where
moisture is progged to be best. This is especially true starting
Tuesday when a plume of deeper moisture is progged to slide across
the Atchafalaya Basin. Some development will also be possible near
the coast around sunrise as nocturnal maritime activity tries
pushing ashore.

As we approach the weekend, a significant nrn stream shortwave
crossing the Great Lakes will break down the ern periphery of the
ridge...at this time, the models aren`t very aggressive with
additional support for more widespread convective development, thus
chance POPs linger til the end of the forecast period.

With the return of building heights aloft, daytime temps will
gradually rise through the week, with maxes by late next week back
into the upper 90s across interior sern TX. This also means a return
of near-criteria heat index values.

25

MARINE...

A few isolated showers will persist across the waters through the
next few hours, tapering off with sunset. Tomorrow we return to a
more typical pattern as high pressure regains control. A daily
chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected
each day through the week. With high pressure nearby, light to
moderate onshore flow will continue through the period, while
seas will remain around 1-3 feet.

17

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


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