Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 090530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1130 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

For 06z TAF issuance.


No significant changes to previous TAF thinking. Latest fog
guidance continues to keep restrictions to visibility out of KBPT
so VFR to prevail all sites through the period.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 932 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021/

Temps tonight to drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s under mostly
clear skies. Surface high moving off to the east will cause
current ESE winds to become more SSE into tomorrow. Inherited grid
package is on track with current obs so no update needed.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 600 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021/

For 00z TAF issuance.

Satellite imagery shows the afternoon high-based cu/stratocu which
developed over the swrn terminals has been on the wane with
diminishing heating past hour or so...expect this trend to
continue into the evening hours. Thereafter, VFR conditions with
light/variable winds to prevail through the night...will have to
watch for fog potential mainly at KBPT as some of the newer fog
guidance shows some development in that area, but will hold off on
mentioning any at this time. Tomorrow likes like a general replay
of today although with fair weather cu impacting all sites - main
issue again looks to be elevated serly winds.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021/

Very pleasant weather today as surface high pressure centered over
the eastern CONUS continues to slide further eastward. As a
result, winds have become progressively more southerly, and some
evidence of the air mass starting to moderate is noted by an
increase in PWAT from 0.32" on the 12Z LCH sounding to 0.54" on a
special 19Z afternoon sounding. Still, aside from some mid-level
clouds across portions of SW LA and SE TX, not much to complain
about with afternoon temps generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
With surface dew points only beginning to creep up and winds
forecast to become fairly light after sunset, another somewhat
cool to pleasant night expected with temperatures near seasonal

GOES-16 WV loop currently shows a fairly potent closed low
spinning off the coast of the PNW, which will become the
dominating influence on the local weather for much of the upcoming
week. This low will begin diving into the western CONUS over the
next few days, resulting in flow aloft locally to turn more zonal
by mid-week, and southwesterly moving into the weekend. This west
CONUS troughing along with surface high pressure sliding further
offshore will result in a warming and moistening trend continuing
through this week, with temps Wednesday through Saturday around 5
to 10 degrees above normal. Guidance does suggest some widely
isolated diurnal type showers could develop Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon, but with minimal forcing mechanism and confidence,
opted to keep PoPs below mention of showers in the WX grids.

More appreciable rain chances pop up in the extended range moving
into the weekend as the trough once again separates from the
greater flow, becoming cut-off in the desert SW as it slowly
advances eastward. Still seeing some timing differences in the
global models, but at least a little better agreement today. In
general, the GFS is still a bit quicker with advancing associated
cold front through the region than the ECMWF... But currently best
confidence in higher PoPs from late Saturday through early

Minimal confidence in the very back end of the forecast, but
globals quickly absorb the upper low back into the northern
stream, allowing the surface front to quickly stall, with return
flow quickly blanketing the region.


Surface high pressure continues to slide east, resulting in ESE
winds becoming more SSE by Wednesday. Light to moderate return
flow then continues through the weekend until the passage of a
cold front by early Monday. Some showers and thunderstorms will
be possible with this frontal boundary.



AEX  44  74  56  78 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  50  73  59  77 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  48  74  59  77 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  53  72  59  75 /   0   0   0  10



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