Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 220443

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1143 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions are expected tonight, however
showers will occur near the coastal areas. Numerous showers and a
few storms are expected Saturday which may provide periods of
lower vis and ceilings through the day. Storms may also cause
winds to become erratic, although winds will range from southeast
to southwest at under 10kts.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 720 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018/

Wx map shows weak pressure gradient with light southeast winds
across the region. Dewpoints remain in the mid/upper 70s, with
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. 00z LCH sounding
showing PW of 2.37", with characteristics of long skinny sounding,
and ample SB Parcel CAPE of 3238. In layman`s terms, sounding ripe
for heavy rain and potential localized flooding, which we`ve had
already late this afternoon across Orange county near Vidor. Radar
showing heaviest activity diminishing across SE TX, new scattered
SHRA/TSRA has developed across C and S LA. Have bumped up pops for
this evening, and keeping high pops after midnight across SE TX/SW
LA and the coastal waters.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018/

AVIATION...Areas of rain and a few thunderstorms continue across
the region late this afternoon, however the activity is expected
to decrease through the evening. Additional shower activity is
expected to develop along the coast and move in tonight. This may
produce periods of lower vis and ceilings during the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018/

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to stream NWD across
the area late this afternoon, with an area of stratiform rains
also in the mix across parts of E TX. Latest guidance indicates
this activity will continue through the afternoon into at least
early evening, with a decrease in coverage expected after dark.
This lull is likely to be short lived, however, as there is a
strong signal for renewed development over coastal SE TX/SW LA and
the adjacent Gulf waters during the overnight hours into early
SAT morning. With the abundant MSTR in place, additional
development farther inland across the remainder of the area will
occur through the morning and into the afternoon. Increase in
cloud cover/PCPN will assist in holding high temperatures down
into the mid/upper 80s.

A relatively wet pattern is expected to hang around for a while.
The upper trof and associated SFC low over North Central TX are
expected to slowly drift a bit TWD the SE tomorrow, then just
gradually fill through the rest of the weekend into early next
week. By mid week, an upper trof digging into the Central CONUS
will aid in sending a frontal boundary in our direction, but it
looks to stall just to our north, leaving us in the soupy pre-
frontal airmass.

High pressure extending into the northwest Gulf will maintain a
light to occasionally moderate south to southeast flow into the
coming week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected through the weekend courtesy of a slow moving upper trof
over Central Texas and abundant tropical moisture.



AEX  72  89  72  87 /  30  60  40  60
LCH  75  87  74  87 /  60  70  40  60
LFT  74  90  74  89 /  30  60  30  60
BPT  76  85  75  86 /  70  70  50  60




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