Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 151644

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1044 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

Wx map shows exiting surface and upper level low over the SE U.S.
with high pressure building from TX. Wrap around clouds
continuing, with the north to south clearing line moving over SE
TX, and almost to the Sabine River. The clearing line will slowly
move east today, making its way across W LA by this afternoon, C
and SC LA by late afternoon near sunset. Thus, slightly warmer
afternoon highs in the lower 60s expected for SE TX/SW LA, with
mid to upper 50s expected across C and SC LA due to the lack of
sunshine. Ongoing forecast has this well depicted, no updates



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 610 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018/

For the 12/15/18 1200 UTC TAF package.

Stratus (mostly MVFR) continues to blanket the area this morning.
These clouds will be gradually eroding generally from W to E
through the day. Previous set of TAFs was generally in line with
latest guidance and satellite trends, so only some minor tweaks to
timing were made. IFR CIGS at KAEX should improve to MVFR by mid
morning, with TEMPO IFR at the Acadiana terminals as well for the
first couple of hours of the forecast period. All sites expected
to be VFR by early to mid evening. WNW winds will continue to
gradually subside today as the gradient across the area loosens,
becoming light tonight as high pressure builds into E TX.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018/

Latest UA analysis and WV imagery show the vertically stacked low
pres system spinning over centered over MS/AL border, nearly on
top of Columbus MS, with the sfc low located over N MS/SW TN per
recent sfc analysis. A tight pres gradient between this low and
high pres over the Rio Grande Valley continues to produce gusty
west to northwest winds over the area. Satellite imagery shows
quite a bit of wrap around moisture and low clouds over the lower
MS valley, with the back edge of the clouds acrs E TX, extending
from roughly Paris to Houston. Temperatures this morning range
from the upper 40s to lower 50s, but the gusty winds make
conditions feel rather chilly.


The low pres system will continue to move northeast away from the
area through tonight, with high pres building acrs the region.
This will allow winds to continue diminishing today. Drier air
will also begin to work into the area today, with skies gradually
clearing from west to east through the day. This will provide
decent weather for the remainder of the weekend, with mostly clear
skies and light northerly winds expected through Monday.
Temperatures today will still be a little on the cool side with
highs in the middle 50s acrs central LA to around 60 acrs lower SE
TX where some aftn sun should help. After today, temperatures are
expected to be close to seasonal normals with morning lows in the
lower to middle 40s and aftn highs in the 60s.

Dry weather will continue into Tuesday, although the pattern aloft will
be transitioning as a shortwave trough moves into TX. With the
sfc ridge sliding east, and southwesterly flow developing aloft in
advance of the shortwave, moisture will begin to increase over
the region. This will bring an increase in cloud cover on Tuesday,
with showers developing Tuesday night as a strengthening upper
jet moves into the region on the southeastern flank of the trough.
Showers will become more widespread on Wednesday as the upper
trough and its sfc front move through the area. A few tstms could
be possible as well, but left out mention at this time given only
modest instability and dewpoints remaining in the 50s.

The upper trough will deepen and cutoff over the lower MS Valley
Wednesday night into Thursday, with strong northwesterly flow
developing aloft on the backside of the system. This will bring
drier air into the region, with convection ending from west to
east Wednesday night. High pres will build back over the region
bringing dry weather for the end of the week. The front will bring
a slight cooldown, but overall, temperatures through the week are
expected to remain close to normal.


Strong west to northwest winds will gradually diminish over the
coastal waters through tonight as the sfc low moves further
northeast and high pres builds over the area. Light to moderate
northerly winds are expected to persist through the weekend.
Winds will veer more easterly early in the week as the high moves



AEX  56  39  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  60  42  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  43  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  61  42  65  46 /   0   0   0   0


GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening for

     Small Craft Exercise Caution until noon CST today for GMZ450-452-



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