637
FXUS64 KLIX 262331
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
631 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Gusty winds reside across the region this afternoon as a strong
onshore flow has developed between a low (or what will be a series
of lows across the plains this weekend) and high pressure over
the western portions of the Atlantic. This will keep pushing
warmer and more moist flow across the region. Within this rich
flow, think globals and some meso models may be picking up on some
very low topped streamer showers at times this weekend. But with the
isolated and light nature most will remain dry. A silent 10 once
again applied. Breezy conditions will remain through the short
term period, but at this juncture should remain below advisory
criteria.

A cold front should stall upstream as the front begins to become
parallel to the mean flow. However, at this point the location
seems to be just too far for an appreciable uptick in rain chances
for our region. Temps remain above average with most locations
today and Saturday warming into the middle and upper
80s...especially away from the coast. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Going into the start of the new week, another fairly robust H5
short wave will finally grab the front and bring it closer to our
CWFA, especially Monday and into Tuesday. However, the feature
moves downstream pretty rapidly and again the front becomes
parallel to the mean flow and slows to a stop. The front begins to
become more east to west oriented in time as a more progressive
zonal flow develops with very little to push it along at least a
southward push. Tuesday and into Wednesday ridging begins to take
shape across our CWFA and the lower MS River Valley, which may
push the surface front further away (to the north) and eventually
limiting it`s influence on POPs/QPF across our region. Globals
never bring the front through bust just close enough to keep rain
chances areawide Monday and Tuesday. Best rain chances look to be
northwest tier parishes/counties with perhaps two waves of
rainfall/convection. With very lackluster upper levels, no
optimistic there will be much if any severe weather support...at
least looking at synoptically favorable within this range. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Late afternoon/early evening conditions have seen ceilings bounce
between VFR and MVFR with most trending toward VFR. With the loss
of surface heating, expect most of the lower clouds to scatter out
for much of the overnight hours. Could see some low stratus try to
redevelop toward sunrise Saturday, but will probably remain in the
MVFR range. Ceilings should lift to VFR by late morning Saturday.
Southeasterly winds expected to maintain at least a moderate
breeze with potential for 15G25KT or possibly a litlte higher,
mainly during the daytime hours Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Southerly onshore flow will continue to gradually strengthen
tonight and into the upcoming weekend. With surface low pressure
upstream and surface high over the western Atlantic not really
budging through the weekend, the pressure gradient will promote
moderate and potentially hazardous winds and seas. Seas will also
build with a developing swell as a prolonged southerly fetch
develops. This may also cause minor flooding as water gradually
piles up against the MS Gulf Coast and tidal lake areas. SCA
headlines are up through the weekend and may need to be extended
if the surface pattern doesn`t evolve going into early next week.
(Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  84  63  83 /   0  10   0  10
BTR  70  88  69  88 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  68  84  67  83 /   0  10   0  10
MSY  71  84  70  84 /   0  10   0  10
GPT  69  81  68  80 /   0  10   0  10
PQL  66  83  66  82 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday for
     LAZ058-070-076-078-080-082-084.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday for
     MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF