849
FXUS64 KLIX 071724
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1224 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Low stratus is still a "thing" if you will this morning as very
rich low level moisture continues to stream northward from the
Gulf. In fact, last hour the dew point had increased to around 74F
here at ASD, so naturally low stratus isn`t far behind, especially
this time of year with such a rich boundary layer in place. The
low stratus deck will begin to lift the moment insolation occurs
later today.

A somewhat weak H5 ridge across the Bay of Campeche and southern
Gulf will help warm most of our region well into the 80s again
today and wouldn`t be surprised if several locations such as BTR
metro reach 90 degrees. The cooler spots will be along the
Mississippi Gulf Coast where onshore flow will help moderate these
areas just a bit right along the immediate coastline as SSTs are
still a tad on the low side (enjoy that Mississippi folks while
you can). Otherwise the pattern will evolve to a more active
southwesterly flow aloft. That said, any shortwave or impulse
within this flow looks to stay to our north and a cold frontal
boundary begins to hang up within the mean flow across the
ArkLaTex and points northeast toward the Cumberland Plateau and
lower Sequatchie Valley of east Tennessee. As heights and
thicknesses continue to rise through the end of the short term
period, expect temperatures to respond with much of the area again
reaching at the very least 90 degrees (again outside of the
immediate coast). (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Long term picks up where the short term drops in terms of. Again,
heights and thicknesses will continue to slightly increase on
Thursday, which should be our warmest/hottest day as high temps
rocket into the lower to middle 90s for most of the region. This
along with plenty of low level moisture around could cause heat
index values to rise close to or in excess of 100F on Thursday.
During the overnight Thursday and into Friday night an amplifying
Canadian trough over the eastern half of the US will begin to move
a surface cold front toward our region. The front looks to clear
the region from NW to SE Friday morning or early Afternoon. We`ll
need to watch for some severe potential with this given the
moderate instability. Although wind shear will be a bit on the
lackluster side, cannot rule out at least some severe weather
potential. Also, keep in mind that depending on the orientation of
any prior QLCS, cold pool dynamics may also force the front
through a tad earlier, which could limit the overall window for
severe weather albeit not a limiting factor overall for severe
weather.

CAA will occur, although CAA will likely be offset by sun angle
and insolation given the calendar. However, temps in the upper 70s
or lower 80s is much better, which should make for an AMAZING
weekend ahead. The area should remain under mostly dry northwest
flow, at least briefly. Going into the start of the new workweek
next week things get a bit tricky in terms of global solutions.
The front that passes through the region on Friday stalls to our
south...well to our south. However, globals show a more robust
upper level impulse dig over the Texas Hill Country and eventually
help develop showers and storms along the front as it gradually
lifts back northward ahead of this feature. The question is how
far north does the front lift ahead of this impulse? And will isentropic
upglide be enough to keep some mention of POPs to start the
workweek? With this package yet again, the medium range is a bit
on the low confidence side for now given model differences with
some being fairly large. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Moist boundary layer conditions will continue through the entire
forecast period, and this will keep a scattered to broken deck of
strato-cumulus ranging between 2000 and 3000 feet in place through
the afternoon hours. Later tonight, mainly between 08z and 14z,
another weak inversion will form within the boundary layer. The
development of this inversion will allow for lower stratus of 1000
to 1500 feet to develop at the majority of the terminals. However,
at MCB, further stratus build down could occur due to a stronger
inversion layer, and period of IFR ceilings ranging from 300 to
800 feet is in the forecast between 09z and 13z. Increased thermal
mixing after 15z will allow the stratus deck to mix back out into
the scattered to broken MVFR deck much as seen today.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Low CIGs will eventually lift through the day to VFR conditions
later today. Southerly surface winds will slightly increase with a
few gusts close to 20kts or so. This should decrease and become
less gusty after decoupling around sunset. Additional low CIGs
will again develop alter tonight with MVFR conditions anticipated
for most if not all terminals. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Locally moderate winds will continue across the MS Sound and tidal
lakes through today. This will allow the continuation of
cautionary headlines. Eventually, winds gradually get a bit
stronger, which may require SCA headlines late Wednesday and into
the day on Thursday as the low level flow increases ahead of an
approaching cold frontal boundary. Behind the frontal passage
early Friday, expect winds to shift to an offshore flow. Remaining
moderate, there could be a need for Cautionary Headlines or lower-end
SCA before winds improve going further into the weekend. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  90  71  89 /   0  10  10  30
BTR  75  93  76  94 /   0   0   0  20
ASD  73  91  74  93 /   0   0   0  20
MSY  76  90  76  92 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  74  86  75  88 /   0   0   0  20
PQL  72  88  74  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RDF