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000
FXUS65 KLKN 012104
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
204 PM PDT Thu Jun 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected across much of the region today. Any
stronger storms that may develop will have the potential to
produce a quarter to a half inch of rain along with hail. Friday
and Saturday the focus of thunderstorms will shift more toward
east- central Nevada. Additional thunderstorm activity is then
expected into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Thursday and Friday.

A short wave trough moving through the broad scale trough will
slowly drift across the silver state today and then drift NE out
of NV on Friday. This will push additional moisture into the
region and spread it across the silver state. This trough will
also bring more unstable conditions and provide shear which will
enhance rain shower and thunderstorm development and serve to
increase their duration and intensity. The focus area for the rain
showers and thunderstorms today is in central to NE NV. Some rain
showers and thunderstorms may persist through the overnight hours
mainly in eastern NV. For Friday the focus area will be in mainly
eastern half of NV with overall less and generally weaker
thunderstorms. With the additional forcing stronger storms are
expected which can produce both strong and erratic outflow winds
and hail. Some of the most potent storms can even become severe
with even stronger winds and large hail. Some of these strong
storms are expected to be rotating which could lead to brief
funnel cloud formations. However overall vorticity and shear
profiles are not supportive of these funnel clouds becoming
tornados, so while not impossible, tornados are not expected
today. Any stronger storms that may develop will have the
potential to produce a quarter to a half an inch or more of rain,
making ponding of water a concern, along with increasing chances
of flooding or debris flows in mountains such as the Ruby`s where
significant high elevation snow pack remains.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday.

The weekended will see some showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoons, mainly across eastern Nevada. By Monday another
coastal low, off the California coast will work into the southern
part of Nevada. It will bring another surge of moisture to the
state, and with its broad area of circulation, produce more
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms through Thursday.
Given the blocking pattern in the east, the progression of this
Low pressure will be slow. Highs throughout the long term will be
in the 70s and 80s, with lows in the 40s and 50s.


&&

.AVIATION...Additional shower and thunderstorm development is
expected to continue through 04Z this afternoon across northern
and central Nevada. Probability of TS in northern and central
Nevada is 35-45% A few storms could be strong with small hail and
strong gusty outflow winds the primary threats. VFR conditions
will prevail most of the afternoon, but a passing shower or
thunderstorm could bring brief MVFR to IFR conditions with
reductions in VIS and ceiling. Conditions are expected to quiet
down after 04Z this afternoon, before the afternoon showers an
thunderstorms develop again around 18Z Friday and continue
through the afternoon.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...River and stream flows remain high and swift as
snowpack continues to melt from central and northern Nevada
mountains. The active weather pattern will persist this week,
with afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms.
Probabilities remain low that any given thunderstorm will cause
increased hydrologic impacts. Smaller creeks like Lamoille will
see diurnal fluctuations, but larger rivers that are slower
responding will continue to run high through the week. Fresh snow
melt will be very cold and can pose a hazard as multiple
drownings have occurred across the West.

Flood Warnings are in effect for the following rivers:
   * Humboldt River at Comus (Moderate Flooding)
   * Humboldt River at Battle Mountain (Moderate Flooding)
   * Humboldt River at Carlin (Minor Flooding)

Flood Advisories are in effect for the following:
   * Humboldt River at Elko
   * Lamoille Creek
   * Marys River at Deeth
   * Humboldt River at Palisade


&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/91/91/99