Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 152102

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
202 PM PDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Mild, dry weather will continue through Wednesday.
Then a couple weak weather systems will bring a mix of rain and
snow through the weekend. Dry conditions will return next week.


.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday. Model agreement is very good
for the short term period. There will be a weak system moving
through bringing some unsettled weather late in the period, and
cooling things down a bit.

Tonight through Wednesday evening. Odds are this will continue to
be a dry period. One more exceptionally warm day is on tap. A
shallow, speedy low pressure trough will be nearing the
California, providing a very warm southwesterly flow aloft of the
LKN CWFA. Daytime temperatures Wednesday are expected to be about
10 degrees above normal. High temperatures will be in the 70s. Low
temperatures will be in the 30s.

Midnight Wednesday night through Thursday evening. Low pressure
will quickly slide through California, through Nevada and past the
4-corners area of the country. This shallow, rapid shortwave
movement will bring some inclement weather. However snow levels
will be relatively high until the precipitation moves east.
Generally, accumulations on the mid-slopes and higher may be an
inch or two. A quick dip in snow level from the Ruby Mountains and
eastward Thursday night may yield some light snow accumulation in
the valleys of eastern Elko County. High temperatures will
generally be in the 50s. Low temperatures will be in the 30s
Wednesday night, then the 20s Thursday night.

Midnight Thursday night through Friday morning . If the track and
speed of this first system hold true, this will be the beginning
of a very short dry period, with temperatures on the cool side of
normal. Low temperatures will be in the 20s.

Friday afternoon. Due to inherent ill-timing of multiple weak
waves within a climatological northwest flow pattern, the latest
model runs indicate there could be some light rain or snow showers
across northern Nevada. High temperatures will be in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night through next Tuesday. Model agreement is
still pretty solid with the synoptic situation. However following
the exit of the shallow trough, there will be a period of
northwest flow aloft continuing. Sporadic surges of impulses with
this type of fast flow aloft will be difficult to time. Thus
unsettled conditions will fluctuate with each wave.

Friday night. This period will continue to be dry as the next
shallow short wave approaches. Low temperatures will range from
the mid 20s to the mid 30s.

Saturday through Monday morning. Another shallow shortwave trough
will move through very quickly. With a shot of cold air
coinciding with precipitation along a cold front, this system may
be the better snow-producer for the mountains of Elko County.
Could see a half-foot of snow on the highest elevations. However
confidence is not very high in this Northwest flow and the
coldest air will be well to the east. High temperatures will range
from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Low temperatures will be in the

Monday afternoon through Tuesday. High pressure over the eastern
Pacific will bring dry conditions to the Great Basin. High
temperatures will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at KWMC KBAM KEKO KELY and
KTPH through Wednesday afternoon with light winds and high
cloudiness. Drainage winds at KELY will be around 15kt at times.
AMD NOT SKED is in effect for KTPH due to sensor problems.





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