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000
FXUS65 KLKN 051030
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
230 AM PST Fri Mar 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Mild temperatures and dry conditions are expected this
afternoon with southerly winds picking up in the afternoon.
A weather disturbance moves into the region Saturday bringing
gusty winds to the state and a mix of light rain and snow showers
across far northern Nevada. Above normal temperatures will
continue into Sunday before another disturbance brings more rain
and higher elevation snow to drought-stricken Nevada Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday. Winds will pick up today as
a broad southwest flow aloft increases in advance of the next
Pacific trough. Short wave will move onshore tonight and over the
state Saturday morning. The main concern with this feature will be
gusty winds on Saturday. However, strongest winds are expected
overnight Friday and with a lack of daytime mixing, should limit
gusty surface winds in valley locations. 700 mb winds will be
quite impressive though Saturday morning across White Pine county
so this bears watching if mixing is stronger than anticipated.
Also accompanying this system will be a few light valley
rain/higher elevation snow showers across far northern Nevada
Saturday but significant precipitation is not expected with little
to no impact on roadways. Fair weather returns Sunday before the
next frontal system arrives Monday and Tuesday.

Above normal high temperatures in the 50s and 60s will persist
through the weekend with a general southwest flow pattern
remaining in place. Lows will bottom out in the upper 20s to
lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Thursday.

Southwest flow ahead of the next weather system will keep low
temperatures warmer than normal Sunday night heading into Monday.
A cold front will move through the area Monday evening through
Tuesday, and may produce light rain and snow showers before
changing over to all snow Tuesday. Eighty percent of ECMWF model
ensembles show a colder solution when it comes to high
temperature for Tuesday, when compared to the NBM. As the cold
front moves through the area on Tuesday, the low pressure off the
California coast will continue to dig south and east. This low may
produce some snow showers for portions of central and southern
Nevada on Wednesday. Model agreement beyond Wednesday is fairly
low. With jet energy over the region for most of the long term
period winds most afternoons will be breezy.

High temperatures on Monday are expected to be in the 50s and 60s
out ahead of the cold frontal passage. Tuesday through Thursday
highs are expected to be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Lows Monday
morning will be in the 30s for most with teens and 20s in parts
of northern Elko county. Lows Tuesday through Thursday are
expected to be in the teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through the
next 24 hours. Some breezy winds of generally 10 to 15 kt with
gusts around 25 kts are expected this afternoon, especially at
KELY.

Note: Amendments will not be available for KELY given no wind
observations.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

93/91/93