Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
844 FXUS65 KLKN 100736 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1236 AM PDT Sun May 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * High pressure produces warm and dry weather thru most of the week * Record high temperatures are expected beginning Sunday and persisting thru Wednesday * Gusty winds across the forecast area and a low chance for rain showers and thunderstorms north of I-80 Wednesday && .UPDATE... Issued at 1232 AM PDT Sun May 10 2026 No major changes to the forecast needed, though model runs continue to add moisture and potential precipitation to areas north of I-80 on Wednesday. The forecast continues to track toward record breaking heat Sunday through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Hot and dry weather conditions will be situated over the Great Basin thru early next week as an upper level ridge resides over the western U.S. and Canada. High pressure will build over the desert southwest region with daytime high temperatures residing 15 to 20 degrees warmer than normal by Sunday, persisting thru Wednesday. This will bring readings into the low 90s for some locales with daily high temperature records expected to be tied or broken at some climate sites. Progressive upper wave pattern brings a trof thru the PacNW Wednesday with the ridge moving east. The trof will clip northern Nevada and a low chance (10% to 20%) of afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms have been introduced to the forecast. A slight change from previous forecasts as most recent numerical model solutions are now bringing the trof thru the PacNW slightly further south. Not expecting any significant rainfall accumulation at this time and the most likely fare Wednesday afternoon will be cumulus buildups, virga, and the odd dry thunderstorm or two with most activity focused over the high terrain. This will also signal the start of a gradual cooling trend thru the latter half of next week under a westerly flow regime. By Friday, daytime high temperatures will be near to slightly warmer than seasonal values. Weather continues to look dry. Otherwise the typical afternoon breezes return Monday and Tuesday with stronger winds present Wednesday afternoon as the afore mentioned upper level trof clips Nevada. Elevated west- southwesterly winds will be present with gusts 30 to 40 mph Wednesday. The higher end gusts will be situated across Central Nevada. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence for warm temperatures and dry conditions thru early next week. Low confidence regarding the prospect of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Minimal deviation from NBM with temperatures adjusted a few degrees cooler in the typical colder valleys across the forecast area. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions remain in place thru Sunday afternoon under mostly sunny and clear skies with a few high level clouds overhead at times. Winds will again be generally light Sunday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Relatively benign yet warm weather Sunday will give way to hot, dry, and breezy conditions early next week as high pressure builds across the desert southwest region thru this weekend under the influence of an upper level ridge. Elevated fire weather concerns will be present as temperatures warm 15 to 20 degrees warmer than normal beginning Sunday, carrying thru Wednesday. Daily high temperature records are expected to be tied or broken early next week. The typical afternoon breezes will be present by Monday and Tuesday with gusts around 20 mph. This will combine with minimum afternoon relative humidity values of less than 15%. Stronger wind event expected Wednesday afternoon with west- southwesterly gusts 30 to 40 mph and the higher end gusts will be situated across Central Nevada. have also introduced isolated showers and thunderstorms into the forecast for locations north of the I-80 corridor Wednesday afternoon as an upper level trof moving thru the PacNW clips Nevada. Not expecting any significant rainfall accumulation at this time and the most likely fare Wednesday afternoon will be cumulus buildups, virga, and the odd dry thunderstorm or two with most activity focused over the high terrain. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ UPDATE...99 DISCUSSION...92 AVIATION...92 FIRE WEATHER...92