303
FXUS65 KLKN 301929
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1229 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1229 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025

* Heat Advisory for Southwestern Elko County, Northern Eureka
  County, Northern Lander County, and Humboldt County today

* Red Flag Warning for Northern Nye County, Southern Lander
  County, and Southern Eureka County Tuesday

* Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in the valleys of
  Northern Nevada Tuesday afternoon

* A few strong thunderstorms expected each afternoon and evening
  today through Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)
Issued at 1229 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A ridge of high pressure will extend
northwestward across Northern Nevada this afternoon and tonight.
Isolated, dry thunderstorms should remain north of the Interstate
80 corridor this afternoon into this evening. A Heat Advisory is
in effect for Southwestern Elko County, Northern Eureka County,
Northern Lander County, and Humboldt County until 9 PM PDT this
evening. An upper-level area of low pressure will meander around
the Eastern Pacific Ocean Tuesday, just off the coast of Central
California. High temperatures throughout Northern Nevada Tuesday
afternoon will be around ten degrees above normal for this time of
year. A Heat Advisory may be required. Here are probabilities of
maximum temperatures of 95 degrees or higher for select locations
in Northern Nevada on Tuesday, July 1st, 2025:

Elko - 100%
Winnemucca - 100%
Carlin - 100%
Crescent Valley - 100%
Battle Mountain - 99%
West Wendover - 97%
McDermitt - 95%
Montello - 95%
Denio - 90%
Spring Creek - 75%

In addition, there is a major risk of wildfires in parts of
Central Nevada Tuesday due to south wind gusts near 35 mph and
minimum relative humidity values as low as 5 percent. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect for Northern Nye County, Southern Lander
County, and Southern Eureka County from 11 AM PDT Tuesday morning
until 8 PM PDT Tuesday evening. The aforementioned upper-level
area of low pressure will make landfall over Southern California
Wednesday. This cyclone aloft will open up into a trough of low
pressure Thursday as it moves eastward across Southern Nevada. A
trough of low pressure will pass eastward over the Pacific
Northwest Friday. A ridge of high pressure will build eastward
across Northern Nevada this weekend. Isolated, dry thunderstorms
this afternoon and this evening will transition to an isolated
mix of wet and dry thunderstorms each afternoon and evening
Wednesday through Saturday as atmospheric moisture increases.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence
regarding a moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in
the valleys of Northern Nevada Tuesday afternoon. High forecast
confidence in a critical risk of wildfires in parts of Central
Nevada Tuesday. Moderate forecast confidence regarding the
location thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Wednesday
through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Tuesday
afternoon. Isolated high-based thunderstorms at KEKO and KELY
Monday afternoon may create erratic gusty winds in and near storms
until early evening. Afternoon wind gusts in the range of 22-25KTs
are anticipated at all terminals until after sunset Monday night.
KWMC and KEKO will see gusts until after midnight before
diminishing but sunrise Tuesday morning. Wind gusts return Tuesday
afternoon with stronger speeds of near 30Kts forecast especially
for KTPH and KELY until later Tuesday evening.

AMD NOT SKED for KELY due to visibility sensor issues.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High based isolated dry thunderstorms are forecasted for zones
437/438/469/470 through Monday evening. Afternoon diurnal breezes
will be stronger for zones 425/426/427 through Monday evening
where gusts are expected to range 25-30 mph until after sunset. On
Tuesday a Red Flag Warning has been issued for zones 426/427 due
to critical fuels, RH values between 5 and 14%, and stronger wind
gusts of 35-40 mph from 11AM PDT until 8PM PDT Tuesday night.
Isolated dry thunderstorms are again forecast Tuesday afternoon
for zones 425/437/438/469/470 until later Tuesday evening.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for NVZ030-036-038.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM PDT Tuesday morning until 8 PM PDT
Tuesday evening for NVZ426-427.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...87
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99