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000
FXUS65 KLKN 070651
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1151 PM PDT Sat Jun 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...A strong cold front moving through the state will
bring showers and thunderstorms and higher elevation snow to
northern and eastern Nevada through tonight. A much colder air
mass behind this front could bring a few areas of frost to the
area tonight with widespread freezing temperatures expected Sunday
night into Monday morning. Warmer and drier conditions are
expected Monday through much of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Convection continues early this morning with frequent
lightning at times. Updated forecast to add thunderstorms to the
forecast through this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 522 PM /

SYNOPSIS...A strong cold front moving through the state will
bring showers and thunderstorms and higher elevation snow to
northern and eastern Nevada through tonight. A much colder air
mass behind this front could bring a few areas of frost to the
area tonight with widespread freezing temperatures expected Sunday
night into Monday morning. Warmer and drier conditions are
expected Monday through much of the week.

UPDATE...Impressive areas of dust from the Black Rock Desert and
Carson Sink being generated by strong gusty winds is progressing
eastward into Humboldt and Lander counties. The forecast was
updated to reflect this unfolding event.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 345 PM /

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday. Dynamic frontal system
making its way through eastern Nevada will bring additional
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening across
northern and eastern portions of the state. The trough
accompanying trough will translate eastward through Sunday and
Monday with a ridging pattern setting back up over the Great Basin
region Tuesday.

Temperatures: A cooler and drier air mass will continue to make
its way into central Nevada through tonight. Decreasing cloud
cover and lower dewpoints particularly across central Nevada
could bring pockets of frost to some areas tonight. Highs on
Monday will be markedly colder at 15 to 20 degrees lower than
today. Expect highs in the 40s and 50s across northern Nevada to
the lower 60s farther south into northern Nye county. Even colder
temperatures are expected Sunday night into Monday morning with
widespread freezing lows expected. Thus, a frost advisory and
freeze watch have been issued for most of the CWA for tonight and
Sunday night respectively. Temperatures will begin to moderate
Monday setting up the stage for a warm and dry trend through the
week.

Precipitation: Showers and thunderstorms will continue along the
front late this afternoon before pushing mostly into Utah by
tonight. Colder air coming into the region and remaining
precipitation across northern Nevada will bring higher elevation
snow, above 5500 feet, to parts of northern Nevada. Accumulating
snow is expected above 6000 feet with a few inches of
accumulation in the Ruby mountains and high elevations of
northern Elko county tonight and Sunday morning. Roadways should
remain in good condition considering time of year and warm ground
temperatures. However, visibility could be affected at times of
heavier snow tonight along passes. Showers will gradually diminish
across northern Nevada Sunday night with dry conditions settling
in for Monday.

Winds: Strong pressure gradient associated with the cold front
will keep elevated winds across parts of west central NV through
this evening. Winds of 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 are possible in
Lander, northwest Nye and southern Humboldt counties. Gusty winds
associated with stronger thunderstorms are expected for the next
few hours across far eastern Nevada and White Pine county.
Otherwise, winds will diminish Sunday and especially Monday and
Tuesday as a ridge builds over the Western U.S.

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Friday. The remarkable aspect
of this forecast period is the lack of significant weather until
late in the week. A period of relatively dry conditions should
move into the region through Thursday as and upper ridges builds
into the Great Basin. Model guidance generally agrees until the
weekend as another Pacific trough drops offshore the western US
late in the week and brings another round of unsettled weather
into the region. It is reasonable to expect this next upstream
system to eject a couple weak short waves across California into
the Great Basin region. The result will be tightened pressure
gradients across the western Great Basin with accompanying breezy
and possibly windy conditions across the regions later in the
week. But european and GFS guidance continue to show noticeable
variance and increased uncertainty as to strength and timing of
any incoming disturbances as the more significant upper feature
moves into the western US this weekend. The good news is that the
increasing southwest flow aloft will bring summer back to our
area. High temperatures will rise through the 80s and into the 90s
later in the week. Low temperatures will range from the mid 30s
to the mid 40s with some low 50 readings in White Pine county.

AVIATION...A strong cold front continues to sweep across central
Nevada this afternoon with brief MVFR conditions accompanying
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Post-frontal west to northwest
winds will follow and gust into the 30 to 40 kt range especially
at KWMC, KBAM, KEKO and KTPH. As colder air spreads into the
state, showers will mix with and change to snow especially higher
elevations north of Interstate 80 overnight into Sunday morning.

FIRE WEATHER...Considerable post-frontal drying is observed
across west central Nevada in fire weather zones 427 and 424.
Post-frontal winds are also picking up to create a short period of
critical fire weather conditions through late this afternoon into
the early evening hours. Much cooler temperatures are expected
over the next few days across the state behind a cold front. Areas
of frost tonight and higher elevation snow will be followed by
widespread freezing temperatures across most of northeast Nevada
Sunday night into Monday morning. Lighter winds and a warming and
dry period starts Monday.

CLIMATE...A late Spring frost is expected tonight across some
valleys in northern and central Nevada following the passage of a
strong cold front through the state. Even colder temperatures are
expected Sunday night into Monday morning are expected with
widespread freezing temperatures across most valleys. Central
Nevada in particular could see overall colder temperatures as
cloud cover will be less than northern Nevada and could drop down
into the mid 20s.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Humboldt County-
Northeastern Nye County-Northern Elko County-Northern Lander
County and Northern Eureka County-Northwestern Nye County-Ruby
Mountains and East Humboldt Range-South Central Elko County-
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County-Southwest Elko
County-White Pine County.

Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
Northeastern Nye County-Northern Elko County-Northern Lander
County and Northern Eureka County-Northwestern Nye County-Ruby
Mountains and East Humboldt Range-South Central Elko County-
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County-Southwest Elko
County-White Pine County.

&&

$$

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