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000
FXUS65 KLKN 112206 CCA
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
259 PM PDT Tue May 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions continue under the high
pressure for the mid-week. Meanwhile, unsettled weather and a
chance for thunderstorms returns for Friday and into the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday.

Relatively dry and quiet weather continues for the mid-week as
models agree to high pressure under the upper-level ridge. By
Wednesday, agreement between the models does present the ridge
flattening over the state thanks to some short-waves passing to
the north. Current guidance does not expect any active weather
over the next two days, but Thursday does present very low
confidence for some potential isolated dry thunderstorms along the
northern boarder. Warming is expected to continue, regardless,
for Silver State as temperatures rise into high 70s to low 80s
Wednesday afternoon, with Thursday afternoon looking to be in the
low to mid-80s. Look for overnight temperatures to be 30s to 40s
for Tuesday night, while Wednesday night will see temperatures in
the 40s.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Tuesday.

It is setting up to be a fairly active period during the Long
Term as a trof builds into the West beginning on Friday.

By Friday evening, the Low center is expected to be around Northern
California and then will make its way southward through
California into the weekend as it deepens.

The Low could be in a position on Friday and Saturday in such a
way as to be able to transport enough moisture into to Nevada to
produce showers and thunderstorms. In fact, the GFS is indicating
some pretty impressive CAPE values, especially on Saturday (though
the NBM indicates much less instability) which could lead to some
strong to even isolated severe storms if this were to occur. Dry
thunderstorms were added to the outer edges of the main storm
coverage.

Mainly diurnal shower and isolated thunderstorm chances continue
Sunday into Monday as the Low moves slowly into Arizona and
begins to open up on Tuesday.

Highs on Friday will be in the 80`s and then will cool into the
70`s for the remainder of the Long Term period as heights fall.
Lows are expected to generally be in the 40`s.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected at all terminal over the next
24 hours, with relatively light winds and very few clouds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure continues to build over the Great
Basin region through midweek. This will allow for warming
temperatures with highs primarily in the 70s and 80s on Wednesday,
then mainly  80s in valley locations on Thursday.  Dry conditions
will persist with many locations across central Nevada seeing single
digit RH during the afternoon hours with Wednesday being a
particularly dry day. Winds however will be light and terrain driven
with gusts limited to around 15 mph through Wednesday before
stronger west winds are expected Thursday. Active weather could
return as early as Friday across northern Nevada including chances
for thunderstorms. More widespread showers are expected Saturday
across central and northern Nevada.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

94/90/90/94