Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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331 FXUS65 KABQ 121735 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1135 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 Patchy fog and low clouds over eastern NM this morning will give way to clearing skies and warmer temperatures today. Showers and storms will redevelop over the higher terrain of northern NM this afternoon then move southeast into nearby valleys through sunset. These storms will not be as strong as Saturday but small hail is still possible. Monday and Tuesday will feature a couple more showers and storms around the higher terrain with warmer temperatures. The coverage of showers and storms is expected to increase again over a larger part of NM Wednesday and Thursday followed by a return to dry, warm, and breezy conditions toward the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 The closed upper low that brought all of the thunderstorm activity to much of central and eastern NM on Saturday is currently over the northern San Luis Basin of CO early this morning. This low is forecast to continue drifting eastward today and along with daytime heating, generating mainly garden variety type scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northeastern third of the state this afternoon. An isolated strong storm or two is possible over the far northeast, but effective bulk shear is lacking as surface winds go southwesterly, and severe storms are forecast to remain east of NM as a result. Dry north to northwesterly flow aloft moves in over the forecast area tonight as high pressure aloft builds overhead. Enough low to mid level moisture remains in place for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon, mainly mountains. Shower and storm motion will be to the south-southeast around 15 mph. High temperatures will trend warmer across eastern NM today and areawide Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 A downtick in storm coverage is still advertised Tuesday as a weak shortwave ridge crests over NM. Much warmer temps with some remnant moisture around the region will allow a few orographic showers to develop across northern NM. This activity will move east/northeast into northeast NM thru late day. A much more active pattern is also expected to return Wednesday and Thursday as a pair of weak upper level shortwaves attempt to gather over northern NM. Low level return flow deepening along the Front Range Wednesday interacts with the upper waves and allows several clusters of storms to develop over the region. A reinforcing shot of low level moisture arrives as a convectively-aided backdoor cold front over eastern NM Wednesday night and Thursday. The 00Z ECMWF solution has finally come around closer to the past several runs of the GFS which favors northeast NM for an additional round of QPF in excess of 1" during this period. Temps cool below normal again for much of northern and eastern NM. Extended model guidance continues to advertise a return to drier, breezy, and much warmer temps toward the end of the week. 00Z MOS numbers are showing the warmest temps so far this season with highs potentially closing in on 90F for ABQ by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1008 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist except for short lived MVFR conditions in/near scattered convection this afternoon, potentially impacting KSAF and KLVS. Otherwise, a weak backdoor front will move down the eastern plains overnight and result in a northerly wind shift, most notably at KROW. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 Surface dewpoint temperatures are forecast to remain in the low 30s west with upper 30s to low 40s in the Rio Grande Valley and mainly upper 40 to low 50s east through this week. That means daily rounds of isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly over the mountains each afternoon through Tuesday. By Wednesday, an upper low over Northern Baja is forecast to help increase shower and thunderstorm coverage mainly along and north of I-40. Shower and storm coverage continues to ramp up Thursday as the low moves through NM and combines with a backdoor cold front to result in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Drier air begins to move in on northwest flow aloft Friday, but models suggest enough residual mid level moisture could result in at least isolated storms over the southwest and south central mountains. High temperatures will trend warmer early in the work week, cooling to below average areawide Thursday. A strong warming trend is forecast to begin Friday, continuing into next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 74 43 79 43 / 10 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 66 30 73 33 / 40 10 30 5 Cuba............................ 64 37 73 40 / 30 10 10 5 Gallup.......................... 71 33 77 36 / 5 0 10 0 El Morro........................ 66 37 72 41 / 20 0 20 5 Grants.......................... 70 35 76 37 / 10 0 10 5 Quemado......................... 67 39 74 41 / 5 5 10 5 Magdalena....................... 69 44 74 48 / 10 10 10 10 Datil........................... 66 41 71 44 / 5 5 10 10 Reserve......................... 75 36 79 38 / 5 0 10 0 Glenwood........................ 79 50 84 50 / 5 5 5 0 Chama........................... 58 31 66 33 / 60 20 40 10 Los Alamos...................... 60 43 69 47 / 40 20 30 5 Pecos........................... 61 41 70 42 / 30 10 30 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 39 64 41 / 50 10 30 10 Red River....................... 52 30 61 33 / 60 20 40 10 Angel Fire...................... 53 26 62 29 / 60 10 40 10 Taos............................ 61 32 71 35 / 40 10 20 5 Mora............................ 60 36 67 37 / 40 10 40 5 Espanola........................ 67 40 77 43 / 40 20 20 5 Santa Fe........................ 62 43 72 46 / 30 10 30 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 66 41 75 44 / 20 10 20 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 71 49 79 53 / 10 10 10 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 72 50 80 51 / 10 10 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 74 47 82 48 / 10 10 5 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 73 48 81 50 / 10 10 5 5 Belen........................... 76 43 83 46 / 10 5 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 72 46 81 49 / 10 20 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 74 43 82 45 / 10 5 5 5 Corrales........................ 74 48 82 49 / 10 10 5 5 Los Lunas....................... 74 44 82 46 / 10 5 5 5 Placitas........................ 68 46 76 50 / 10 20 10 5 Rio Rancho...................... 73 47 80 50 / 10 10 5 5 Socorro......................... 81 48 85 51 / 10 10 5 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 45 71 48 / 10 20 10 5 Tijeras......................... 66 42 74 45 / 10 10 10 5 Edgewood........................ 66 39 74 41 / 10 10 10 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 68 36 75 37 / 10 5 10 5 Clines Corners.................. 63 39 70 41 / 10 5 10 5 Mountainair..................... 68 41 74 44 / 5 5 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 69 41 74 44 / 5 5 5 5 Carrizozo....................... 75 47 79 51 / 0 5 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 68 44 72 47 / 0 5 20 5 Capulin......................... 60 40 65 40 / 70 20 20 0 Raton........................... 64 39 71 39 / 70 10 20 5 Springer........................ 65 38 72 39 / 50 20 30 0 Las Vegas....................... 64 38 69 41 / 30 10 30 5 Clayton......................... 69 47 73 46 / 50 40 10 0 Roy............................. 67 43 72 44 / 40 10 20 0 Conchas......................... 74 46 78 47 / 20 10 10 5 Santa Rosa...................... 70 43 75 45 / 10 5 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 76 47 78 47 / 10 5 5 0 Clovis.......................... 79 49 80 51 / 30 5 0 0 Portales........................ 82 48 83 49 / 30 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 78 45 80 47 / 5 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 86 54 86 56 / 0 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 78 47 80 49 / 0 0 10 0 Elk............................. 77 44 78 47 / 0 0 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...11