Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK

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FXAK67 PAJK 252250
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
250 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/ Damp and gray day as a weak
front came in from the W overnight. Widespread clouds are the
rule of the day with on and off rain showers. Rain has been light
with only a few hundredths reported each hour in most locations.
Winds have also been low with around 17 kt max sustained wind
speed reported today.

Today`s weather will not change much into tomorrow. Continued
onshore flow will keep clouds and rain showers in the area.
Expected total rainfall will be light with only around a quarter
of an inch of rainfall in most areas (Yakutat could see up to a
half an inch however). Temperatures will remain above normal for
highs and lows through Tuesday afternoon.

Things start to change again toward drier conditions Tuesday night
as a low well south of the Gulf moves south of the area. This will
cause more easterly and northerly offshore flow to start up and
the clouds and showers will start to clear out. There is the
possibility that the clouds could clear out fast enough that
temperatures could drop below freezing for lows Tues night in some
northern locations. Fog could also develop, mainly for the south,
so patchy fog was added to the forecast for late Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/...For the start of the
mid range high pressure over the Western AK Gulf with a low south
of Haida Gwaii will keep SE AK under dry conditions with northerly
and offshore flow. Pressure gradient between the southern low and
high pressure over Canada does not indicate any significant
winds. Temperatures will have wide diurnal spread with slightly
above normal day time highs and cooler lows due to clear skies and
radiational cooling. The high pressure ridge shifts eastward
towards the end of the week as a front associated with a low over
the Bering Sea tracks in with increased 300 mb jet. This front
will increase gulf winds to small craft levels with precipitation
likely reaching the panhandle Friday night into Saturday.
Ensembles are in line with the advancement of this front but still
some spread with operational models on timing of the front. In
addition some indication that the front will lose some upper level
support and shear apart more as it moves inland. The NE Gulf
Coast expected to get majority of rainfall. For the rest of the
weekend and beyond ensembles indicate higher probability of an
active weather pattern continuing with a series of weak lows
moving in as a mid level trough remains over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...Onshore flow persists through the next 24 hours with
waves of light rain moving through the coast into the Panhandle
overnight. MVFR to IFR from CIGS into tomorrow morning with
conditions improving Tuesday afternoon.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...PRB

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