644
FXUS61 KAKQ 160726
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
326 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure lingers off the Mid Atlantic coast today. Mainly
dry conditions prevail through Friday afternoon, but showers and
storms return Friday night through the weekend. Dry weather
returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Warmer and mainly dry today with partly sunny skies.

Low pressure (~998mb) is currently off the coast of NJ early this
morning, with mostly cloudy skies over the area. The low will likely
drift SSE today. It appears now that it will be far enough offshore
that skies will become partly to mostly sunny by early aftn over all
areas except the eastern shore. Drier conditions are expected today
behind the departing low pressure system. Temps rise into the upper
60s-mid 70s on the eastern shore with upper 70s-around 80F west of
the Bay. There may be just enough lingering moisture for an isolated
shower across the eastern shore during the aftn/early evening. In
addition, could see a few showers/tstms form over the mountains and
move into our far western counties after 20z/4 PM. Any lingering
showers or isolated tstms should quickly dissipate by 8-10 PM. Lows
tonight will be in the mid 50s inland, with dry wx expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry through mid/late aftn Friday, with a few showers/storms
  possible W of I-95 late in the day. Becoming unsettled with widespread
  showers and locally heavy rain possible Saturday into
  Saturday night.

- Showers continue on Sunday with high temperatures only in the 60s
  across much of the area.

Shortwave ridging and weak sfc high pressure remain over the area on
Friday before moving offshore by Friday evening. The low level flow
will be onshore so temps near the coast will not get higher than the
lower 70s (and it likely stays in the mid-upper 60s near the
Atlantic coast of MD). On the other hand, temps should top out
around 80F inland. The next system approaches late on Friday with a
few showers (and maybe a tstm) possible in the Piedmont late in the
day, though most areas E of I-95 will stay dry until after 00z/8 PM
Friday evening.

Unsettled wx is expected to prevail from Friday night through much
of the weekend. An upper shortwave is progged to slowly track east
from the MS River Valley to VA/NC from Sat AM through Sun. At the
surface, high pressure will be our NE along/off the New England
coast into Atlantic Canada, with sfc low pressure tracking just S of
the upper low/trough. The guidance continues to show precipitable
water values rising to 1.60-1.80" by Fri night/Sat, with a moist WSW
flow aloft and deep lift expected over the region in advance of that
upper shortwave. Off and on rain likely continues through much of
the weekend before rain chances end from north to south from Sun AM-
Sun night. The heaviest rain is expected from Fri night-Sat night,
with PWs dropping off a bit on Sun as the upper trough axis moves
overhead. With E flow expected on Saturday (becoming NE on Sun),
temps will be below average (highs in the mid 60s-mid 70s on Sat
with 60s across much of the area on Sun). As such, sfc-based
instability will be quite limited after Fri/Fri evening. That said,
could still see a rumble of thunder or two across southern portions
of the area on Sat, with mainly showers expected by Sunday. WPC
currently has a Marginal ERO for Saturday and given the heavy
rainfall of the past 24 hrs will need to monitor trends as this will
likely lead to additional/continued hydro concerns. At this time,
the forecast (through 12z/8 AM Sunday) has 1-2" of areal average
QPF, with slightly lower amounts on the eastern shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry weather returns early next week.

- Below average temperatures continue on Monday (especially near the
  coast), with warming temps expected by midweek.

High pressure slowly builds toward the area from the NW during the
early and middle part of next week. Still relatively cooler (and
potentially cloudy with a few showers near the coast) on Monday with
continued onshore flow. Dry wx is expected from Mon night through
much of Wed as the high builds over the area before moving offshore.
There is a chc for some late day convection Wed. Again, highs will
stay a bit below avg on Monday, but warm to near to above avg by the
middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 AM EDT Thursday...

Ceilings have risen to VFR at all terminals, but am still
expecting periodic MVFR CIGs through the morning at ORF/PHF/SBY
before prevailing VFR CIGs return by midday. VFR through the
period at RIC/ECG. Gusty N winds (to 15-20 kt) are possible
from late morning through early evening. There will be the
potential for another round of MVFR CIGs at SBY tonight into
early Friday, otherwise primarily VFR conditions through tonight.

Outlook: VFR Friday except at SBY where MVFR CIGs could persist
through the morning. Another low pressure system will bring
showers, a chc of tstms, and degraded flight conditions Friday
night into Saturday, with at least a chc for showers/tstms on
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Marginal SCA winds and seas continue through today.

- Lighter winds expected Friday and Saturday.

- Extended period of onshore flow likely Sunday and Monday, with
elevated winds and seas.

998 mb low pressure is centered off of NJ this morning. Winds are
NNW 10-20 kt in the Chesapeake Bay (highest N) and 5-10 kt
elsewhere. The low will remain nearly stationary through the rest of
this morning before slowly drifting S and weakening later today.
There has been a downward trend in forecast winds across all near-
term model guidance through the next 24 hrs, though winds may touch
SCA criteria for a time in the Chesapeake Bay this morning and early
aftn (best chance 12-18z/8 AM-2 PM). Will maintain the previous
SCA, but it will be extremely marginal and largely sub-SCA. Did
completely remove the lower James from the SCA given higher
confidence in sub- SCA winds. N winds become 10-15 kt tonight.
NE winds should average ~10 kt Friday and 5-10 kt Friday night
into Saturday morning. Sub- SCA easterly winds expected
Saturday. Another low pressure system will move near or S of the
area Sunday and then looks to meander off of the Carolina coast
through early next week. With high pressure over srn New
England, NE gradient winds are expected for an extended period
from Sat night through at least Monday. At this time, winds look
to be in the upper end of the SCA range and highest across the
srn half of the marine area. Low-end gales cannot be completely
ruled out. Winds look to drop off considerably for Tuesday as
high pressure nudges southward into the region.

Seas this morning are 3-5 ft S of Parramore Island and 4-6 ft to the
N, where SCAs remain in effect. Waves are 1-3 ft in the bay. Seas
will continue to trend down today and tonight but remain near 5 ft
out 20 nm N of Chincoteague through most of Friday. In terms of
headlines, the SCA between Parramore Island and Chincoteague
(ANZ652) was adjusted to end at 23z/7 PM today and the SCA N of
Chincoteague (ANZ650) continues through 23z/7 PM Friday. 3-4 ft seas
are expected everywhere Fri night-Sat night. The increased onshore
flow will increase seas considerably to at least 5-7 ft Sunday into
Monday. Waves at the mouth of the bay also increase to 4-5 ft, with
2-4 ft elsewhere in the bay.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

Have added Flood Warnings for Rawlings and Stony Creek along the
Nottoway river for minor flooding expected to begin this evening
and lasting into Fri (late Fri/early Sat at Stony Creek).

The Flood Warning for Allen Creek near Boydton has been
cancelled. The Meherrin River near Lawrenceville remains under a
Flood Warning.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...AJB/ERI
MARINE...SW
HYDROLOGY...