830
FXUS64 KEPZ 171027
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
427 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 234 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024

We will start a warming trend today that will continue into the
start of next week. Sunday and Monday`s high temperatures will run
5 to 10 degrees above average. We will have little chance for
rain over the next 7 days, with very low relative humidity
readings much of next week. We will see less winds today and
Saturday, but then breezy to windy conditions will occur most days
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024

The one two shot of upper levels troughs is finally moving off to
the east this morning. Behind the systems that brought us some
rain and wind yesterday, we will see an upper level ridge begin to
build across the region. This upper level ridge will dry us out,
slow our winds and jump our high temperatures. Today`s high
temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than the highs we saw
on Thursday. By Sunday our high temperatures will be running 5 to
8 degrees above average. Drier air will be pushing into the region
and along with the ridge aloft, we won`t see any rain chances
through weekend, and really through much of next week.

By late Sunday the upper level ridge will push off to the east and
for most of next week, we will sit under a very dry southwest flow
aloft. Occasionally a short wave trough will dash through the
southwest flow and that trough will give a bump to our winds.
Basically for Sunday through Thursday of next week, we will see
breezy to windy afternoon conditions. Right now, the windiest day
looks like it will be on Monday, but Tuesday through Thursday also
look breezy to windy as well. Monday`s high temperatures will be
well above average, but high temperatures for the rest of the week
will only be a few degrees above average. Next week is looking
warm and very dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

The second of two upper-level disturbances will slowly drop across
the region overnight, and depart early Friday morning. There remains
a bit of marginal moisture in place, and minimal dynamics. That
means still some slim chances for isolated and light rain showers
overnight, but not expecting any thunderstorms. Skies will be
variable from scattered to overcast, but expect them to be generally
scattered to broken, with CIGs at or above 110-130kft. Some areas
will see tempo SCT-BKN070-080 in vcty of any -SHRA. Winds will be
mostly in the 5-10kt range from 270-330. Possible tempo gusts to 20-
25kt with any passing shower. Tomorrow winds will increase in the
early afternoon back to 10-15kts from 250-270. Clouds will diminish
through the day, with skies becoming FEW140 to SKC aft 21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024

We will see little chances for rain over the next 5 days. We will
see a drying trend over the next couple of days. Today`s min RH`s
will be in the teens in the lowlands and near 20% in area
mountains. For Saturday our min RH`s will be in the single digits
in the lowlands and in the teens in the mountains and for Sunday
through much of next week the min RH`s will be in the single
digits in the lowlands and near 10% in area mountains. The winds
the next couple of days will be on the low side of things, but
winds increase and will be breezy to windy for Sunday through the
middle of next week. We will see elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions for Sunday through at least Wednesday of next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  91  66  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            82  60  91  62 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces               90  61  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               85  57  93  61 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               62  44  69  49 /  20   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    87  60  92  61 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              79  54  83  54 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                   89  56  93  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                87  55  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       88  64  94  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                87  55  96  58 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             90  58  98  61 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               81  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   90  61  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             87  59  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           87  67  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            87  56  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    89  57  95  57 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 87  62  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                85  58  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  74  50  82  52 /  20   0   0   0
Mescalero                73  49  81  51 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                 72  48  79  51 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  79  52  84  51 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro                85  57  90  57 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport                86  54  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             81  49  85  50 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                   83  52  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    87  54  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               82  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  82  55  87  55 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   86  55  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  86  55  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           86  55  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               81  56  86  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice