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000
FXUS64 KFWD 190010
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
710 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening through Saturday Morning/

The cold front is currently located near a Bonham-Cleburne-Llano
line and will steadily continue south/southeast over the course
of this evening. Some convective development has been observed
over the last couple hours, mainly across western Central Texas
where large hail has been reported. The potential for scattered
showers and storms along the front will continue through this
evening as RAP analysis shows the front moving into an unstable
airmass with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 7-8 degC/km lapse rates.
This parameter space will continue to promote strong to severe
storms capable of hail and damaging winds. There continues to be a
non-zero tornado threat with this activity, but low-level SRH is
generally unfavorable enough to keep this threat on the lower
side. The front will continue to move through the region,
eventually exiting completely near daybreak Friday.

The cold front will eventually stall across South Texas, leaving
our area fully entrenched within the cooler post-frontal airmass.
Cloud cover will stick around as mid- and low-level moisture will
not be completely scoured out behind the boundary. The afternoon
hours should remain relatively dry as a lack of lift should keep
most precipitation from forming until the late evening and
overnight hours. By this time, an upper level shortwave will move
into the Central Plains and spread increased forcing for ascent
overtop the cooler post-frontal airmass. Expect more widespread
showers and storms to blossom across North and Central Texas
during the early morning hours on Saturday. Sounding profiles show
steep lapse rates and enough deep layer shear/MUCAPE to promote
some stronger storms capable of small hail, but the overall severe
threat is low at this time. Instances of heavy rain are also
expected through Saturday morning as PWATs in excess of 1.5" will
be widespread across North and Central Texas.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 224 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024/
/Friday Night Through Next Thursday/

...Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected Saturday
with the potential for localized heavy rainfall and flooding
concerns...

Large scale forcing will increase across the Southern Plains this
weekend as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches from the
southwest. Height falls will start overspreading the state Friday
night, inducing stronger warm and moist advection overtop the cool
near-surface airmass left behind by today`s cold front. The
ascending air should first yield thickening cloud cover with a
broad area of showers and thunderstorms developing overnight in
response to the strengthening low level jet.

NAM forecast soundings show the boundary layer will be strongly
capped making surface-based convection unlikely Friday evening.
Moderately strong elevated instability amid the ongoing isentropic
ascent should still lead to a rapid increase in the coverage of
showers and thunderstorms after midnight Saturday. The severe hail
threat will be inhibited by the tall, skinny CAPE profiles
(weaker parcel accelerations) in the forecast soundings. However,
steep mid-level lapse rates and adequate deep layer shear should
still support some instances of at least small hail Friday night
into Saturday morning.

The shortwave trough will eject across the region on Saturday as
the front continues to slowly push towards the coast. Scattered to
numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the region with the area of greatest coverage
shifting from North Texas and the Big Country (Saturday morning
and afternoon) to Central and East Texas (Saturday evening/night).
Though a few strong storms cannot be completely ruled out,
widespread cloud cover and rain should limit heating/instability
and the overall potential for severe weather. The main concern on
Saturday will be localized heavy rainfall, especially in areas
where the soils are still saturated from heavy rainfall over the
past few weeks. Additionally, training storms and heavier
convective rain rates may lead to flood issues including minor
river flooding. Generally, 1-2.5 inches is expected though
isolated higher amounts are possible. The higher totals are
concentrated mostly near and east of the I-35 corridor.

In the wake of the departing shortwave, rain chances will end
Sunday morning from west to east as subsidence increases over the
region. After a weekend of well-below normal temperatures (highs
in the 60s, lows in the 40s/50s), temperature recovery will begin
early next week as the surface high shifts east and south winds
return amid mostly clear skies. Dry conditions should prevail
through mid-week before a potential Alberta Clipper positions
North and Central Texas beneath northwest flow ahead of a
developing western CONUS upper trough. As expected, there is
little model agreement beyond Day 7 (Wednesday) so this portions
of the forecast is likely to change over the weekend.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

The cold front is currently between D10 and ACT, and will move
south through the rest of tonight. Isolated showers and storms
will continue to be possible along the front, with best impact
timing at ACT between 02-04Z this evening. Behind the front,
expect breezy northerly winds through the early morning. A blanket
of MVFR stratus will build northward across the region overnight
into tomorrow morning, though the exact northern extent is
uncertain at this time. Have continued the MVFR as a TEMPO from
13-17Z in D10 to account for the lowered probabilities and the
continued uncertainty. The stratus deck should scatter out by
early-mid afternoon tomorrow, with VFR prevailing once again.
Another round of stratus is expected just after the 30 hour mark,
and will be included in future TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    56  71  58  65  50 /  20   5  80  90  90
Waco                59  74  62  70  51 /  40   5  50  80 100
Paris               54  69  53  59  48 /  40  20  80  90  80
Denton              52  69  54  62  47 /  10   5  80  90  90
McKinney            54  69  55  63  48 /  20  10  80  90  90
Dallas              57  72  58  64  51 /  20   5  80  90  90
Terrell             56  71  57  65  49 /  40  10  70  90 100
Corsicana           60  74  61  70  51 /  40  10  50  80 100
Temple              61  75  63  73  51 /  20  10  40  80 100
Mineral Wells       53  70  56  64  47 /  10   5  80  90  90

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$