Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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889 FXUS63 KGID 121754 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1254 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly cloudy skies and a few showers today, with more widespread shower (and isolated thunderstorm) activity expected this evening and into the morning hours Monday. Severe weather is not anticipated. - A weak cold front and upper level disturbance will bring additional chances for shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday night into Wednesday, with severe weather again appearing unlikely. - More spotty shower and thunderstorm activity expected Thursday through next Sunday, with many areas likely remaining dry over this period. - Seasonably nice temperatures are expected for at least the next week, with fluctuating temperatures mainly in the 70s (with a few isolated low 80s at times). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 An upper level low spinning across Colorado is sending some cloud cover and light showers across portions of north central Kansas this morning. Thus far...there has been no lighting with this activity, although with some limited instability to work with, expect a few non-severe thunderstorms across the local area once instability increases later this morning. As the aforementioned low transitions in to the central plains and begins to scoot across southern Kansas later this afternoon, expect an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity across the region, although the daytime hours are not expected to be a complete washout. The more steady and widespread precipitation is expected this evening into the first half of the day Monday, with the overall focus of more persistent and beneficial rainfall expected to fall near and south of I-80. Given the minimal instability and weak shear, severe weather is not anticipated with this approaching weather system. As the low then tracks east of the region Monday afternoon, expect a break in precipitation chances ahead of weak cold front and upper level wave, which should bring an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity as they push south across the local area Tuesday evening. Again, while much of the area should see a fairly good chance for some accumulating precip, overall, this is not expected to be a major weather event - and severe weather is not anticipated. After this front moves south of the local area Wednesday afternoon, precip chances will become much more spotty through the end of the week and into next weekend as the upper level flow becomes more zonal (and fairly weak) with no signs of a significant disturbance impacting the local area. Instead, weak impulses may bring spotty weak showers/weak thunderstorms at times, but overall, most locations should be dry Wednesday afternoon and into next weekend, with seasonably nice temperatures mainly in the 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR with BKN mid to high clds will give way to incr potential for scat thunderstorms this aftn and early evening. Coverage and placement is still uncertain, so only have VCTS at this time. Any tstms will transition to mainly rain showers late this evening and into the overnight, but again, coverage/duration at the terminals is low confidence. In general, rain chcs should decr from W to E in roughly the 09-12Z time frame. CIGs and VSBYs are also low confidence and will be somewhat dependent on how widespread the rain shwrs are. Recent HRRR runs have really backed off on the MVFR-IFR CIGs tonight, whereas most other guidance has low clds, though to varying degrees. With some E-NE upslope component to low level flow and fairly high BL RH the general pattern would seem to support the idea of MVFR to IFR CIGs (and perhaps sub-VFR VSBYs) thru mid-AM Mon. Clds should gradually decrease late Mon AM into the aftn. Winds will be quite variable in direction through this evening, then bec mainly E to NNE tonight into Mon AM...though speeds will be light throughout at generally 5-10kt. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Thies