644
FXUS64 KLCH 171737
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1237 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Early morning sfc analysis shows an area of low pressure over our
ern zones with a trailing frontal boundary noted extending along the
upper TX/swrn LA coast. Water vapor imagery shows a wswrly flow
aloft over the region thanks to a filling low approaching the Red
River Valley...the shortwave responsible for this evening`s
strong/severe storms has departed the region while a pair of more
subtle disturbances lie upstream. Speaking of said convection, local
88Ds show pretty much all of it has now moved east of the
Atchafalaya with just a few straggling cells noted over lower
Acadiana and the adjacent coastal waters. Otherwise, observations
show a mostly cloudy and fairly seasonal night ongoing.

Still expecting one more day/night of active weather across the
forecast area today. The combination of the disturbances aloft with
the lingering sfc boundary and good persistent moisture (forecast
soundings indicate PWAT values up to 1.9 inches, especially over our
sern zones) plus daytime heating should lead to another round of
shower/thunderstorm development by this afternoon. Current thinking
at this time is that the bulk of the development should come on the
south side of the boundary (essentially the sern 1/3 of the forecast
area) although forecast soundings indicate enough instability/CAPE
on the backside of the front to allow for at least widely scattered
showers/storms today. Activity looks to really crank up later this
evening into the overnight hours as the primary shortwave works its
way across the area, maximizing lift. Convective parameters from
forecast soundings indicate the potential for damaging wind gusts
and large hail (isolated tornadoes can`t be ruled out, but don`t
seem as likely with fairly straight line hodographs) across our sern
zones, and thus SPC is highlighting this portion of the area in a
slight risk for severe through tonight (a narrow band around the
edge of this area is in a marginal risk). Likewise, the highest
forecasted QPFs are in these same areas and suspect WPC will
maintain a slight risk of excessive rainfall in their upcoming day 1
outlook.

As far as the Flood Watch goes, have made no changes to it this
morning. Elected to keep the sern zones out of it even with the
higher projected rainfalls today since antecedent conditions aren`t
too bad despite some good downpours over the past few hours. On the
flip side, elected to maintain the watch over our nwrn zones which
have just been hammered with periods of heavy rains recently...and
despite the lower POPs and much lower projected QPFs today, any
convection which fires up over this area has the potential to drop
sufficient amounts to certainly aggravate the already very wet
conditions up there.

Once the bulk of the precip moves out late tonight through tomorrow
morning (some lingering lighter convection looks possible over
the Atchafalaya Basin into Saturday afternoon), the remainder of
the short term looks dry as ridging begins building over the
region.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

High pressure will be along the Atlantic coast at the beginning of
the work week keeping a south flow in place. A ridge aloft will
stretch from South Texas into the Lower MS Valley. Hot and humid yet
dry conditons are anticipated for the first half of next week as this
pattern remains in place. Temperatures are expected to be above
climo averages for the date.

Past mid week the upper ridge may shift east as a system pushes into
the plains. A few showers and storms may return to the area as the
ridge exits, but as of now the forecast keeps the bulk of the
convection removed to the north closer the upper disturbances
pushing from the plains into the Mid MS Valley.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The latest satellite and observations reveal MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibility, with brief periods of VFR across the region. Expect
MVFR ceilings to persist through most of the afternoon, and return
to IFR ceilings/visibility tonight. Additional thunderstorms may
develop this afternoon, mainly near KBPT and KLCH. Otherwise,
another round of convection will be possible between 06-12Z
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Once the existing headlines on the CWF expire later this morning,
don`t expect to see any more added back in through the period as
prevailing high pressure maintains generally light winds on the
coastal waters.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  65  87  66 /  20  30  20   0
LCH  84  70  87  70 /  40  40  20   0
LFT  87  72  88  72 /  50  60  30   0
BPT  85  69  89  70 /  40  30  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through late tonight for LAZ029-031>033-044-045-
     141>143-152-241>243.

TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...99/BRO