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000
FXUS64 KLCH 260458
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1158 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Main story concerning the short range forecast will be the onset of
strong winds across the marine zones and inland interests which will
trend through the weekend. At present time, there is a Small Craft
Advisory for portions of the coastal lake, bays, and Gulf of Mexico
taking effect tonight through 10PM CDT Friday night. Do note, inland
winds and gusts approach, but remain just shy of sustained criteria
for wind advisory during periods of this time. Confidence is strong
enough to stand down on a high wind watch. However, brief periods of
sustained winds near 35mph or occasional gusts approaching 45 MPH
are not out of the question. With the National Blend of Model
staying fairly congruent with many deterministic ensembles regarding
the pressure gradient and general timing, a Wind Advisory is most
certainly possible inland-likely later in the short range trending
into the long range- to complement the small craft advisory already
set for the marine zones. Touching further on the marine zones
particularly south of the Sabine and Calcasieu channels, do expect
near gales to gale gusts to occur periodically through Saturday into
Sunday. Further note, these elevated winds and  gusts will contain
SE components which will make direct north / south navigation
difficult on large profile vessels. For high profile vehicles, these
conditions will also make it difficult to maintain control during
the period of stronger winds/gusts.

Currently, a 996mb low pressure is deepening east of the Colorado
Rockies with moderate troughing extending south into northern
Mexico. Upstream of the Low, a large area of subsidence occupies
east of the Mississippi where high pressure is modifying into the
western Atlantic waters by Friday afternoon. While the high pressure
cell maximizes near Cape Cod, ridging will extend SSW across the SE
CONUS into the central Gulf of Mexico before slackening to low
pressure over the TX/MEX coast. A progressive upper air pattern over
the central plains will lift north of the subtropical ridge over SE
CONUS. Thus, the shortwave and abovementioned low pressure will
slowly move into the upper Midwest through early Saturday morning
while the cold front extending south transitions to a dry line
trough. Due to strong moisture advection ahead of the trough, very
minimal POPS develop over portions of SETX and far SWLA, but should
diminish by the daylight hours Saturday. However, in place will be
the steep gradient influencing gusty conditions at the surface.
Despite dominate cloudy conditions, diurnal temperatures will top
out in the low to mid 80’s through Saturday afternoon. Winds will
continue to increase through the early evening hours, before slight
easing occurs after daybreak Sunday when a secondary impulse from
the Pacific accelerates across the western CONUS and helps broaden /
fill the low pressure gradient across the central / southern plains.

Kowalski/30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

For Sunday, a mid to upper level shortwave and accompanying surface
low over the TX/OK Panhandle expected to move north northeast
through Monday. The surface low with stronger high pressure across
the East Coast will keep a tight pressure gradient over our region
Sunday with ongoing southerly winds around 20-25 mph with gusts 30-
35 mph likely. The main area of lift expected to remain to our north
and northwest, along with the greatest threat of severe weather for
Sunday. However, the diffluent flow aloft will allow for increased
chances of showers and thunderstorms north of I-10 by Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night, with the highest chances expected Monday
around 50-70%. WPC has areas outlined in a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall north of I-10 over SE TX/C LA for Monday, with a Marginal
Risk elsewhere. Chances diminish down to 30-50% for Tuesday
afternoon, and 20% or less for Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures will remain above normal with overnight lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, and afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s.

08/DML

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

While we currently have VFR CIGs currently, some MVFR CIGs are
working in out of the west tonight. They are expected to hold for
a majority of the period with mot much lifting over the afternoon
hours. Outside of CIGs, gusty southerly to southeasterly flow
will pick up as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an
incoming system. We could see some isolated showers and storms out
of this, however this is not in the TAFs at the moment due to the
low probability of it.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Starting on today winds will start to increase becoming moderate
to strong. Winds will continue to increase on Friday with gusts up
to 30 knots. The elevated winds will continue on Saturday as well
before weakening on Sunday. Waves will also build in the outer
waters reaching 7 feet or more by Friday morning. Lakes and bays
will be rough to very rough conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory is likely starting on Thursday night and
lasting through Saturday as the pressure gradient further
tightens across the area building seas further into the weekend
under a strong southerly regime.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  84  68  86 /   0   0  10  10
LCH  69  82  71  84 /   0   0  10   0
LFT  69  84  71  86 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  70  83  71  84 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Friday for GMZ430-432-450-
     452-470-472.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...87